2024 AK HD 40 Blanket Primary

Here, Baker, who served during the legislative session as a Republican Appointed by Mike Dunleavy after Josiah Patkotak assumed the office of Mayor of the North Slope, faces strong headwinds against him.

It's not just that baker was held to third place with 29% of the vote, but the fact that Baker is facing two strong challenges from local electeds, & has tended to break with the Bush Caucus on several Key votes—breaking the unity of the nonpartisan caucus—causing friction within and backlash from his district.

Most crucially here was upholding Dunleavy's veto of S.B. 140—a bill supported unanimously by the rest of the Bush caucus—which was upheld by one vote: Baker's. Said vote being the impetus for both Chase and Burke's campaigns, and has drawn maker significant fire from both Democrats.

Turning to the results, all the candidates tended to do well in their home bases, with Chase and Baker (despite criticism of a lack of presense by Chase and Burke) both doing well in their home Northwest Artic borough and Burke doing well in her home North Slope Borough

This in turn presents added uncertainty for the general on top of the likely effect of differential turnout—as while Baker is a clear underdog due to his third place result, the veto Sustainment, and by the cordial race run between Democrats Burke and Chase—regionalism could help Baker win under RCV dynamics.