2025 Canadian General Election

The 2025 Canadian General election, following the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau due to a Caucus revolt, the resignation of longtime ally & Cabinet Minister Chrystia Freeland and apocalyptic poll numbers—the party chose PM Mark Carney to lead them into the General election against Conservative Pierre Poilievre.

This changing of the Liberals' prime ministerial candidate, alongside U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to proclaim Canada the 51st U.S. State, led to a significant rebound in the polls in addition to causing Poilievre's conservatives to lose their political footing.

Immediately following this change, once Carney was instituted as Prime minister, due to the rebound Prime Minister Carney called an early election that would either give him a full term, or make him the shortest prime minister in canadian history

In this, they sought to continue to campaign against Trudeau, with Poilievre emphasizing how Carney Constituted a Fourth Liberal Term and that he was a continuation of Trudeau's legacy—continuing to emphasize housing and cost of living in their campaign.

By contrast, Carney sought to define himself with his non-elected government experience—noting his roles as head of the Bank of Canada and England, as well as his work as a financier at Goldman Sachs—as well as using Trump's overtures to emphasize Canada's cultural independence from the U.S.

This, alongside a collapse in the Bloc Quebecois vote, allowed for Carney to sustain the liberal rebound to win a full term—even causing Poilievre to lose his seat in the process.

Coupled with the underlying win was a lot of interesting Trends under the hood—mostly caused by the Collapse of the NDP, the conservatives were able to make a good number of gains in traditionally NDP ridings such as in Windsor West, Mushkegowuk—James Bay, & NDP leader Jagmeet Singh's own Burnaby Central

Likewise they also made gains in minority enclave ridings that were traditionally liberal, such as Surrey Newton, Brampton South, and Mississauga-Malton.

By Contrast the Liberals mostly made gains in Quebec, in the prairies—winning Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River in Saskatchewan, and especially in Rural British Columbia, winning Kelowna which they last did in Trudeau's 2015 landslide

2021 Nominal > 2025 General Liberal Trend

2021 Nominal > 2025 Conservative Liberal Trend

Preliminary Results