Where I was Wrong: 2024

The Federal United States races where I was wrong (after January 2024 in my 2024 ratings i ceased updating the down-ballot So I will not be analyzing my ratings for those races): 

My misses are such:

Presidential Misses:

• Nevada: my rule for Nevada was always picking the winner that the Oracle of Nevada Jon Ralston picked, since he picked Harris in the state, so did I, but that ended up being a Fallacy (appeal to Authority) that led me to the wrong choice

• Wisconsin: Presidential Upset on behalf of Donald Trump, Highly indexed Polling, and non-polling indicators, and while it was the closest swing state, polling missed Trump's performance in all three of 2016, 2020, and 2024; even if polling in the state was best in 2024

• Michigan: Presidential Upset on behalf of Donald Trump, Like Wisconsin, Polling and non-polling indicators indicated a Harris win, as such I did, however the Issue of Gaza likely cost harris crucial Arab votes, in addition to a major Hispanic (and low propensity voter) polling miss

• Pennsylvania: Final FiveThirtyEight Average showed Harris up by only 0.2%, historical polling misses would have indicated a Trump win, however early polling and non-polling indicators and PA's 2021-2023 results indicated Democratic party down ballot strength that did not materialize in the 2024 Elections

Senate Misses:

Ohio: Indexed Highly Ann Selzer's D+3% Iowa Poll, as Iowa and Ohio tend to vote similarly, I beleived that the poll was directionally correct and Harris would perform well enough in Ohio for Sherrod Brown to win.

Pennsylvania: The Marquee upset of the night polling indicated a small Polling lead, and mixed in with incumbency and non-polling indicators such as special elections and the washington primary indicated Casey would win. 

U.S. House Misses

In favor of Dems:

• WA-03: Believed that most of (R) Leslie Lewallen's voters in the WA-Primary would go to (R)  Joe Kent instead of (D) Mary Gluesenkamp Perez and that as such MGP was an underdog. 

In Favor of Rs

• CA-22: Believed that a combination of Latinos not swinging right by a significant margin (which did not happen, Latinos swung right) along with increased turnout from 2022 and Democrats landing a strong recruit in Rudy Salas would allow Dems to gain the seat.

• CO-08: Believed Incumbency, Colorado's overall Blue Trend, and lack of significant GOP investiture would allow Dems to hold this seat. 

• NE-02: Polling miss for the suburbs where the GOP was underestimated, overestimated Tony Vargas' strength and overestimated Great Plains blue Trend.

• IA-01: Over-indexed Ann Selzer's polling directionally

• IA-03: Over-indexed Ann Selzer's polling directionally

• PA-07: Missed the Latino Swing right and over-indexed district polling

• PA-08: Missed the swing right in the NYC Metro/Migration back to NYC in the wake of Covid. Also, over-indexed district polling

• AK-AL: Over Indexed the Jungle Primary and local polling, Missed Trump winning alaska by 13%

• NJ-07: Over-indexed the trend in the NJ Suburbs (where had Harris won the seat by as Much Biden did Democrat Sue Altman would have Beaten Republican Tom Kean Jr.) and missed the overall NJ 10% swing to the right as none of the polling suggested that Kamala Harris would win NJ by less than 12%.