Where I was wrong: 2023

New Jersey

• LD-3 (Senate) - Lean R (Hold) (Actual: D Flip) - (Tossup Eliminated)

  • Overestimated Partisanship

  • Underestimated the effectiveness of Burzichelli & South Jersey Dem's Spending

  • Underestimated effect of Ed Durr's Pre-election scandals

• LD-03 (Assembly) - Lean R (Hold) (Actual: D Flip) - (Tossup Eliminated)

  •  Overestimated Partisanship

  • Underestimated the effectiveness of Burzichelli & South Jersey Dem's Spending

  • Underestimated effect of Ed Durr's Pre-election scandals & how it was a drag on the incumbent / Tom Tedesco

• LD-08 (Assembly Seat 2) - Leans R (Hold) - (D Flip)

  • Complete Tossup

  • Result within 100 votes (Katz, D. & Torrissi, R. win)

  • Underestimated effect of LD-08 Assembly Campaign 

• LD-30 (Assembly Seat 2)

  • Forsaw competitiveness, Underestimated the Turnout in Lakewood NJ vs the lack of turnout in Howell NJ & Wall NJ

Virginia

• VA HD-82

  • Rating D: Lean D (Flip) (R Hold) - (Tossup Eliminated)

  • Overestimated Black Turnout

  • Underestimated incumbency advantage

• VA SD-27 

  • Rating: Lean D (Flip) (R Hold) - (Tossup Eliminated)

  • Overestimated the effect of Tara Durrant's Late breaking Scandals

• VA SD-24

  • Rating: Lean D (Hold) (R Flip) - (Tossup Eliminated)

  • Overestimated incumbency advantage of Monty Mason

  • Underestimated R Turnout/Overestimated D Turnout

Louisiana

• Jungle Primary:

• HD-85: Likely D (I > R Flip)

  • insufficient information, Downballot Republicanism, Awful African American Turnout

• HD-60: Tossup (Uncontested D)

  • Insufficient Information, rating did not reflect contested status 

• HD-21: Likely D (Uncontested D/D Runoff)

  • Insufficient Information, No Rs ran

• HD-92: Likely R (Uncontested R/R Runoff)

  • Insufficient Information, No Rs ran

Missisippi

• SD-07:  Lean GOP (Flip) (D Hold)

  • Underestimated Incumbency advantage of Democrat Hob Bryan

  • Overestimated GOP Trend of Rural GOP voters

• HD-64: Lean GOP (Flip) (I Hold)

  • Not enough information

  • Overestimated Ancesteal GOP Republicanism

  • Overestimated the effect of redistricting