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The Elections are done. So Long Live the elections!
My WAY Too Early Preliminary 2025 NJ assembly Elections Ratings
Assuming a Biden Presidenncy and a Neutral environment, the 2025 Elections will be fought on a field of 5 Primary Battlegrounds, and 4ish secondary Battlegrounds. From Most to Least Competitive are LD-21, LD-03, LD-08, LD-25, LD-39, LD-04, LD-11, LD-02, LD-30 & LD-38.
LD-21: The (Now) Premire Battleground and an R+3.68% win for incumbents Nancy Muñoz and Michelle Matsikoudis against Underfunded Challengers Elizabeth Graner and Chris Webber, the shockingly close result in this left Racing seat with Jon Bramnick Leading the ticket places the incumbents in Grave Danger of losing in 2021, even with the posibility of Bramnick leading the ticket in the Governor's race - (This time against an actually funded candidate that doesn't just exist on paper - May that be Steve Sweeney, Mikie Sherrill or Steve Fulop)
Rating (Seat 1): Lean D (Gain)
Rating (Seat 2): Tossup
LD-03: While Closer than LD-21, and the GOP's top Pickup this District's right trend, compared to LD-21 is less an extreme collapse, and more a wimpering stagnation. Further, with Gloucester County Democrats showing renewed Strength (Along with Norcross's deep Pockets), Incumbents Heather Simmons & Dave Bailey Jr. Have just enough going for them that despite their Combined D+2.25% against then incumbents Bethanne Mccarthy and Thomas Tedesco Jr that LD-03 they aren't as endangered as Nancy Muñoz and Michelle Matsikoudis. Though if Forced to pick, I'd say both seats flip in 2025.
Rating: Tossup
LD-08: One of two Split delegations up for reelection in 2025 (and the only one without a Lakewood Sized Asterisk) is, to the surprise of no one who was surprised at Katz win a tossup! While it's possible Anthony Angelozzi tries again, or Brandon Umba seeks a Comeback this district which had Rs win the combined vote by R+0.24%, and Katz come in second while Umba Came in third (a difference of 216 votes as of writing) This district will see a lot of spending in 2025; and be a competitive slugfest to boot.
Rating: Tossup
LD-25: While Senate Minority leader Anthony Bucco won't have to seek reelection until 2027, his assembly mates Aura Dunn and Christian Barranco do! And their combined R+4.32% should cause anxiety in the Morris County GOP Headquarters as while a challenge to Bucco was *SOMEWHAT* Funded, the assembly GOP went under the radar, and as such they should have Overperformed Bucco (Like the LD-02 Assembly Candidates did), but that did not happen, and if alarm bells aren't ringing now, the GOP may fall backwards into Blorris on the assembly level.
Rating: Tossup
LD-39: Heading westward to my Home in Bergen County we find the Home of Wall Street Bankers, hedgefund managers, and generally those that run the world's Financial Sector in the north of Bergen County. & While not home to Democrat Josh Gottheimer, this district is laced with his type of political DNA (Obnoxiously Rich). Which is why the R+7.22% win for the Incumbent republicans is (and I hope you're sensing a trend) Shockingly close... even if not as shockingly Close as LD-25 & LD-21. While the GOP incumbents are clearly favored for another two year term, this district is coming into down ballot competitiveness and maybe not this cycle, and maybe not the next, but soon it will come into the full accidental competitiveness seen in LD's 21 & 25.
Rating: Lean GOP
LD-04: Sometimes you win, and sometimes you win by so much you're no longer considered Premire, and that's what Assemblymen Elect Dan Hutchinson and Cody Miller managed to achieve (With a little help from Ole George & Senator Elect ( and noted Sherlock Holmes Villain) *Insert British Accent* ("Professor") Paul Moriarty. While one must beware of false overperformances their D+6.18% win and Access to Norcross's money in this Biden seat make them clearly favored for second terms come 2025.
Rating: Lean D
LD-11: There are Money Bombs, there are Bombs of Money, and then there's Vin Gopal. Now, Senator Gopal and his 21% win won't be on the ballot in 2025, but the D+13.74% by Margie Donlon & Luanne Peterpaul over Incumbent Assemblywomen Marilyn Piperno and Kim Eulner is nothing to sneeze at & with Gopal likely wanting to keep his assemblymates... in the Assembly (and not running against incumbents this time) barring a red wave incumbents Margie Donlon & Luanne Peterpaul should be able to a Cruise to a second legislature in thid Double digit Biden seat with little issue
Rating: Likely D
LD-02: Ok. Now that we're done talking about Democratic wins and shockingly close Republican wins lets talk about shockingly NOT Close Republican Wins, starting with LD-02. An R+14.62% win at the time of writing for the GOP incumbents in this right trending seat, though it contains Atlantic City, considerign the fact that they overperformed noted RINO Vince Polistina I would not gamble on them losing in 2025.
Rating: Likely R
LD-30: There's winning, and then there's winning with the cheat code that is orthodox Block voting, and that's what Lakewood Rabbi Avi Schnall did in ousting incumbent Ed Thompson in an (two way vote) D+23.98% Rout with Lakewood making over 50% of the district's total voters. Now. while turnout dynamics will be diferent in 2025 (and could cause a GOP win in a phenominal circumstance), Schnall performed better than most optimists thought he would do, and as such despite this district voting for Trump in 2020 by 35.3%, Avi Schnall is clearly favored for a long career in Trenton.
Rating: Likely D
LD-38: Less competitive than LD-30 by most metrics, this seat is only on this list as a edge case scenario in the event of a Red Tsunami as Lisa Swain and Chris Tully won by 11.92% over the half funded assembly slate of Gail Horton and Barry Wilkes. Now, while this Paramus centered district does take some traditionally Democratic Working class minority heavy areas in southern Bergen such as Lodi & Moonachie as well as, you know... Trump +2 Paramus, the Blue trending suburbs of Fair Lawn, Glen Rock, Bergenfield, New Milford, and River edge will likely work as a firewall to keep this seat in Democratic hands, only failing in cases such as a Red Tsunami where Dems Collapse (and even then, past events - like 2021 - don't inspire confidence that Rs can overperform their Gubernatorial nominee to win this seat).
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