How 2020 Puerto Rican Primary Performances affected the General Election

The 2016 & 2020 PR Gov Results and the 2020 Resident Commissioner Results in the precincts that voted for the primary losers that year. Note, only takes into account election day precincts and there may have been minor errors in translation—but I am confident in the numbers.

In the governor’s contest, in the Election Day precincts we see that Pedro Pierluisi did worse than Ricky Rosselló in the precincts won by then incumbent Wanda Vázquez by 13%

whereas Charlie Delgado did worse than David Bernier in the Precincts that voted for Carmen Yulín and Eduardo Bhatia by 14%.

In the precincts Vázquez won, Charlie Delgado only lost 5.6% vs Bernier, whereas in the precincts Bhatia/Yulín won Pierluisi only lost 7.2% vs Rosselló

In the precincts won by Wanda Vazquez Jenniffer González lost 3.4% vs Rosselló, where in the precincts won by Bhatia/Yulín she only lost 0.9% vs Rosselló. Aníbal Acevedo Vilá by contrast lost 7.3% & 7.5% vs Bernier in precincts won by Vázquez and Bhatia/Yulín respectively

Compared to the governors election Jenniffer González did 9.4% better than Pierluisi in the precincts won by Vázquez while doing 6.3% better in the precincts won by Bhatia/Yulín. By Contrast Aníbal did 1.65% worse than Delgado in the precincts won by Vázquez, and 6.5% better in the precincts won by Bhatia/Yulín.

With regards to nontraditional parties, MVC-PIP-PD got 13.7%-11.2%-9.01% in precincts won by Wanda Vazquez (MVC+PIP: 24.9%) And 19.9%-21.8%-4.2% in precincts won by Bhatia/Yulín (MVC+PIP: 41.7%)

Personal Thoughts

Editorializing the numbers, the Gubernatorial Numbers are self explanatory, the comparative Liberalism of Pedro Pierluisi & Charlie Delgado compared to prior PNP & PPD nominees—in addition to the damage caused by the primary—resulted in a minor reversal of coalitions that affected the entire ballot

The results were steepest in the governor race as the 13% (Pierluisi) and 14% (Delgado) losses in precincts won by the opposite primary candidates—with this showing up in Legislative races as well.

However, the results did not show up to the same degree in the Resident Commissioner race, mostly due to an inverse in the perceived liberalism of Jenniffer Gonzalez and Aníbal Acevedo Vila

Here, Jenniffer Gonzalez only lost 3.4% in the precincts that supported Wanda Vázquez, and 0.9% in those that supported Bhatia/Yulín compared to Ricky Rosselló, and did better by 9.4% & 6.3% with both respective groups compared to Pierluisi Pierluisi

Similarly, Aníbal Acevedo Vila did 1.7% worse compared to Charlie Delgado in the Precincts Wanda Vázquez won, but did 6.5% better in the precincts won by Bhatia/Yulín compared himas.

Both results were affected by party/candidate voting, where Aníbal was helped by Charlie's coattails in the precincts Vázquez won as a consequence of straight ticket voting—but did significantly better than Charlie in the precincts that Bhatia/Yulín won due to the prevalence of candidate voting.

In doing so, the end result was that Aníbal ended up with a similar coalition to David Bernier doing ~7.3% worse than him with both groups; and Likewise Jenniffer González a similar coalition to Ricky, with only minor slippage amongst the groups Pierluisi did worst with compared to Ricky

Overall, the large third party vote (in theBhatia/Yulín precincts) harmed hit Pierluisi and Aníbal the hardest as they relied more on Liberal voters that went for Lúgaro/Dalmau and Jordán/Piñero over them, reducing their strength throughout both groups as a result.

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