Final 2022 Picks

PA Senate

• For My Final ratings I Pick Dr. Mehmet Oz to win for a few main reasons,

1. First, there are significant Polling Errors in Pennsylvania, and Fetterman is only leading by 2% in the full average, and is in the danger zone (though he still wins) with the NPA Average, a simple error for the full average or a slightly bigger error for the NPA Average of the Polls could give Oz the win.

2. Secondly, Oz recently developed political momentum, with my Rolling Average of the polls going from a 4.5% Fetterman lead, between Oct.13-23, to a 1.03% Fetterman lead between Oct.21-31, to a 1.47% Fetterman Lead between Oct.27-Nov.2; and it should be noted that Momentum can often lead to an error in the polling because polls don't catch the candidate with momentum leading due to it being too late.

3. However, the momentum seems to have stabilized at a 1-1.5% Fetterman lead; despite that that average places him in a more precarious position than the 2.1% Lead seen in the full average (Which takes into account all polls conducted in October-November Only). Despite that, this more precarious lead makes Oz's path easier because of the fact that this is a statistical tie, and a simple polling error can give him this senate seat.

• However, there are a few reasons to suspect a Fetterman Upset, the non-partisan Average of the Polls has Him up by 4.5%, which would still have fetterman leading if the 4.1% Error that these polls suffered in 2020 repeated itself (Non-Partisan or NPA Average of the same polls had Biden up 5.3% in 2020)

• Whilst including the Partisan Republican Polls in the averages, Fetterman still leads 47.42% to 45.31%, a margin of 2.11%, within the Margin of Error of the polls, but since the Partisan Republican Polls underestimated Biden in 2020, I'm more inclined to take this average at face value with regards to Fetterman being favored

• As of the Present Shapiro seems on track to win by at least 8% assuming that the 2020 Polling error is applied to the full average (an unwise proposition for the sake of argument), and since 2016 Pennsylvania has not registered a difference of greater than 7.5% between 2 races, this leads me to conclude that Shapiro's coattails may play a small effect in bringing Fetterman over the line.

• Despite it improving in recent days, Oz’s Favorable are still down from -9% on the low end to -16% on the low end, this could act as a boost to Fetterman’s chances similar to How it helped Trump’s chances in 2016, 

• In the end this race is a true tossup, but I personally believe the 3 reasons that Oz will win are stronger than the reasons that he will lose, hence why the Final rating for this race is Leans Republican

GA Senate:

• The Final rating for this race is Leans Runoff because of the fact there has been 0% Data that points to either candidate clearing the runoff, with both capping out at 49% in their best polls.

• It should be noted that the case for Walker relies on a combination of Kemp's Coattails and late breaking Momentum, 

1. On Kemp's Coattails, GA is a state that rarely sees ticketsplitting, with the last example being the popular incumbent senator Johnny Isakson (Whose seat Warnock Holds) winning by double digits as Trump Carried the state by mid single digits, in this sence, it wouldn't be unprecedented to see a strong Kemp Performance to drag Walker over the line.

2. Furthermore, Walker has gone from trailing by 1.50% in polls conducted between Oct.13-18 to leading by 0.09% in polls conducted between Oct.26-Nov.2, this suggests at least some momentum, that could further give the Victory for Walker, even if he still trails in the full average by 0.32%.

• It should be noted that I see Warnock as a small favorite despite those advantages because of the runoff, as mentined before, neither candidate reaches 50% in the polling, and that suggests that a runoff, where momentum can change, and Walker doesn't have Kemp to boost him and has to rely on his own political talent (a tough ask). This is compounding the fact that Warnock's base of Metro-Atlanta tends to cast more votes in runoffs than Walker's base in the rurals, with Black Belt Turnout being the reason that the runoff begins at a rating of Tossup/Lean D.

• Furthermore, to the ticketsplitting point due to Walker, and Abrams both being subpar candidates this cycle and Warnock and Kemp both being strong candidates: this suggests that ticket splitting between Governor and Senate could be larger than it historically has been, though this is a hypothesis and we won't know untill the votes are in.

• In the end however, the rating of Leans Runoff stands.

NV Senate:

• Nevada Senate is rated at leans Democrat for 2 Main reasons

  1. The Urban Nevada Firewall is about half what it needs to be in order for CCM to hava a chance

  2. CCM is Down in the full average by R+0.57% and in the most recent section of the roling average by R+2.67% - and NV Democrats have tended to be able to overperform their polling in the past

• Whilst the case for Laxalt relies on doing better in the Election Day vote than expected and a 2020 NV Polling Error to materialize the historical ability for the Early vote to predict the final outcome (as Per Jon Ralston), in addition to my own personal modeling suggests CCM is a clear favorite, and as such, just as the rest of these predictions can be wrong as well NV Can be wrong, but right now the Data points to a Democratic Win in the Silver state

• In the end, the rating of Leans D Stands

CA-13  OPEN 

• Whilst the unpredictability Latino Turnout has kept this race in my tossup column for most of this cycle, I Pick Republicans to win this district because it does not appear that Latino Turnout will be high enough to save the Democrat Adam Gray

  • Final Rating: Lean R

CA-49  Levin 

• Whilst Levin currently is liable to have a close race, this Orange County suburban seat has a subpar GOP candidate running in it. However, despite this, Incumbency and the Boost Democrats appear to have because of Dobbs v Jackson, and California's tendency to simply not elect republicans I currently favor Republicans to win this district very narrowly because the momentum appears to be on their side.

  • Final Rating: Lean R

NY-3  OPEN 

• In an inverse of what seems to be happening in the rest of the nation, NY Democrats at the top of the ticket seem to be gaining a little bit of momentum, this likely blunts whatever coattails Representative Zeldin would have in this Long Island district. This combined with candidate quality favoring Dems, the diference between Federal and State races and ticketsplitting between Federal and State races being strong in New York and Democrats should win this district

  • Final Rating: Lean D

RI-2  OPEN

• While his strength as a candidate has brought this district into contention, the last time the two were on the ballot (D) Seth Magaziner obtained significantly more votes than (R) Alan Fung. This combined with strong debate performances for Magaziner, Fung's tendency to underun his polling, and the Partisanship of this district heavilly favoring Magaziner (Biden won this district by 13% in 2020) makes Fung a very slight underdog to win.

  • Final Rating: Lean D

CA-22  Valadao 

•  Currently, in this district, Latino turnout doesn't appear to be where it needs to be for Salas to win. In addition, momentum seems to be on Valadao's side, so while Valadao does tend to underperform polling (and Overperform other Rs on the ballot) He's currently the favorite to win.

  • Final Rating: Lean R

IN-1  Mrvan 

• Whilst Frank Mrvan is taking the challenge presented by Jennifer Ruth Greene seriously in the final stretchm it is unlikely to be enough in this red trending seat in this Republican year. One of the Republican's strongest recruits, Ruth Greene will probably best Mrvan due to him being caught sleeping and her developing some momentum early on, if Mrvan survives however, it is likely because this assesment that he was too late to save himself was wrong & the partisanship of the district saved him. 

  • Final Rating: Lean R

MI-7  Slotkin 

• The Truest of True Tossups this year, While Slotkin can easilly pull this out through incumbency, & Whitmer's coattails, she's currently favored to lose because the year is likely just too red in the house for her to survive in her dead even district. She can still win, but she's not the favorite

  • Final Rating: Lean R

NV-3  Lee 

• Like the Senare Race NV-3 is a ripe Pickup opportunity because the Firewall is not where Incumbent Democrat Susie Lee needs it in order to win, furthermore NPA's in the district skew Republican down ballot because this is a district that is slightly trending towards democrats, with that causing a slight down ballot Republican lean, but like Slotkin the year is likely what defears her.

  • Final Rating: Lean R

OH-1  Chabot 

• Despite this being a Biden+8% Seat it is much more republican down-ballot, combined with Chabot's incumbency and the lean of the year, I currently pick him to win despite his social issues not fitting the district in the wake of Dobbs v Jackson.

  • Final Rating: Lean R

PA-17  OPEN 

• PA-17 is a district that is one of the only true tossups in the house, while it will be won by Fetterman and Shapiro, likely comfortably, the fact that the Democrat has been tied to the defund the police movement and PA-12 Nominee Summer Lee, Democrat Chris Deluzio is liable to lose - this combined with a complete ad barage by Republican Jeremy Shaffer and The year is likely what makes the diference, leading me to pick the GOP here

  • Final Rating: Lean R

TX-28  Cuellar

• A Strong incumbent, facing against bad headwinds the year is once again the difference maker, with Cuellar being a slight underdog in this district. If Cuellar wins, it is because his "Campaign," his hyper strong base of suppoort in Zappatta/Webb, and the downballot lean of the district saved him. but, Because Beto O'Rourke will probably lose this district, in addition to Momentum in South Texas appearing to move towards the GOP, Cuellar is currently not the favorite

  • Final Rating: Lean R

Wisconsin:

•  Just like in 2018, Wisconsin polling is close in the governor's race, and just like in 2018 the incumbent is liable to lose. A combination of a simple polling error, Ron Johnson's coattails and the Year is why incumbent Democrat Tony Evers is disfavored for teelection, with a final Rating of Leans Republican taking hold.

  • Final Rating: Leans R:

Oregon:

• Oregon Gov is now one of the hardest states to predict, but I'm going to go with the Polling leader, House Speaker Tina Kotek over Christine Drazan, Whilst a simple polling Error would give Drazan the Governor's manshion, the momentum that Kotek seems to have in the final stretch makes that unlikely. Combined with the fact that Oregon Democrats seem to be gaining momentum in the final stretch, what was once a heartache for the DGA looks to be a success, as such the final Rating for OR Gov is Lean D

  • Final Rating: Lean D.