2021 Off Year Elections Ratings: An Analysis

Governor: Terry McAullife, the once and thought to be future governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, lost in what ENN considers to be a mild upset(Something rated correctly by the Crystal Ball, CNalysis and Elections Daily as a Leans/Tilt R race). The wrong rating call came from overestimating the partisanship of the state, and underestimating the unpopularity of President Biden and the national Democratic Brand, McAulliffes Debate blunder where, in addition to the national environment becomming les friendly towards democrats from September 2021—> November 2021.

Lieutenant Governor: Hala Ayala ended up barely over-performing Terry McAullife, when her campaign vs Winsome Sears was significantly stronger than McAullife's vs Glenn Younkin, as such I underestimated the coattails that Younking would end up having in the actual election.

Attorney General: Mark Herring was cleanly upset by Delegate Jason Miyares, this race was Dems best chance at holding a seat, and Herring ended up outperforming Terry McAullife by around 1%, but McAullife's 2% loss proved too much of a hill to overcome for the embattled incumbent. As such, Like the Lieutenant Governor's Election I underestimated the coattails that Younking would end up having. 

House of Delegates: Broadly, my gut assumption that the house of delegates candidates would outrun the top of the ticket was correct, however, there were two Likely D upsets (HDs 83 & 63) where the underlying factors of the race led me astray into beleiving the Dems would be near locks, one(HD 63) was a result of overestemating the share of African Americans in the electorate, and the other(HD 83) was a Clean Upset, that I could not forsee because the fundamentals and campaign pointed to a decent Democratic win. There were two Tilt D upsets because for the first one (HD 85) I thought that the GOP Candidate delving into conspiracy theories would end up costing her the race, and in the second (HD 83) Signs pointed to a slight Democratic win, however the environment was too bad for the Democrat to overcome. Lastly, my only republican overestimation of the night (HD 10), was an overesetimation because my gut thought that the GOP focus, and campaign on and in Loudoun county would be enought to drag the incumbent Democrat to defeat, however, that did not end up being the case.

Senate: The main thing that was missed in the senate was that the South Jersey (Sweeney/Norcross) Machine was overestimated, and the complete and total South Jersey Democratic collapse was completely unforeseen. This lead to an overestimation of Vince Mazzeo's(LD-2) chances, whom was thought would flip his seat(Tilt D), and Steve Sweeney(LD-3) whom was consindered Likelyto win his race(Likely D). Furthermore, Dawn M. Addiego (LD-8) was overestimated(Lean D) because of an overestimation that the south Jersey Machine, and her perceived personal strength and incumbency advantage would carry her over the finish line. 

Assembly: The main thing that was missed in the assembly was that the South Jersey (Sweeney/Norcross) Machine was overestimated, and the complete and total South Jersey Democratic collapse was completely unforeseen, leading to an overestemation of the democratic Candidates in LD 2(Tilt D) and LD 3(Likely D). In addition to that, the democratic incumbents in LD 11 for the Assembly were overestimated due to the incumbent's perceived strength, in addition to Coattails by the senate candidate(Vince Gopal), and while Gopal did end up winning, it was not enough to carry over the Incumbents, leading to their loss and incorrect rating.