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In order to find how ticket splitters split their tickets, one normally takes a look at the Cast Vote Record (CVR) provided by elections departments, however, Puerto Rico doesn't have a CVR and even if it did, it would for the most part be useless due to the multiple Ballot system that PR Uses. In summary, to find out how voters split their tickets, Ecological inferences are necessary. and to find out how the most Alianzista voters voted? This Plus a limitation to the 36 Unidades (Election Voting Districts/Precincts) where MVC Candidate Manuel Natal got over 40% of the vote (45.54% combined) provides the most clarity as to how these voters split their tickets, and, the potential for future ticket splitting.
Note: these were gotten by infering the differences in vote totals, as such there is a margin of error as to the analyses that follow, be forewarned.
The Results in the Unidades being Looked at
How Alianza Voters Split their Tickets.
Fundamentally, here wee can see that 57% of (MVC) Lúgaro/(PIP) Dalmau voters that didn't vote for the Now Alianza's Resident commissioner candidates—a figure that comprises 32% of their total voters with 68% voting for the Now Alianza's RC candidates—voted for former (PPD) Governor Aníbal Acevedo Vila whilst 33% voted for Incumbent Resident Commissioner (PNP) Jenniffer González Colón and 10% voted for Lawyer (PD) Ada Norah Henriquez.
Further, We can see that 72% of (MVC) Natal/(PIP) González voters that didn't vote for the Now Alianza's Resident commissioner candidates—a figure that comprises 31% of those who voted for them with 69% voting for the Now Alianza's RC Candidates—voted for former (PPD) Governor Aníbal Acevedo Vila whilst 13% voted for Incumbent Resident Commissioner (PNP) Jenniffer González Colón and 15% voted for Lawyer (PD) Ada Norah Henriquez.
Lastly, the Governor Numbers are mostly noise—even though it's corroborated by the resident commissioner results, and a prior analysis by Manuel Alvarez Rivera—because ticket splitters only comprise 0.5% of those who voted for Alianza's Gov Candidates (whom split evenly between Rossana Lopez León and Miguel Romero, though with a slight lean to Lopez León acording to Manuel Alvarez's analysis).
Manuel Alvarez Numbers
what can be gleamed from this analysis is that Manuel Natal + Adrian González's vote totals already comprised most of the San Juan PPD as it existed prior to Natal's run for resident commissioner due to the support he achieved and continues to achieve from then San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz Soto.
This is further evidenced by the support Aníbal Acevedo Vilá got—as while Jenniffer González got a large chunk of suport due to Acevedo Vilá's unfavorability and corruption scandals—overall, Liberal Alianzistas supported Aníbal in addition to their own candidates, allowing him to overperform Charlie Delgado by 9% and Nearly Beat González Colón amongst the sample, whereas he lost by 9% statewide.
This in turn highlights a limited ability to gain Populares who voted For Rossana Lopez, here Terrestella González Denton remains only 6% bellow Rossana Lopez's showing in the latest ENDI poll—holding on to the party Stalwarts with many Natal, Romero, and Rossana voters remain undecideds (the PD and independent Jose Vargas grew by a combined 3% vs 2020).
Lastly, in a margin of error race, every vote counts—especially when it is likely that Jenniffer González further Weakens the PNP in San Juan—which does make these small deviations important.
But it should also be noted that in 2020 Natal obtained a large percentage of the San Juan PPD's votes—bringing them to their worst showing in San Juan since 1968—and as a consequence, while it is possible he gains some, as it is also Possible for Romero (who has made overtures to them), it is most probably not something that will end the race with a 5%+ margin for Natal, but a curiosity for how the PPD splits up as the party dies out with the Estado Libre Asociado.
(PS, it should be noted that Miguel Romero in 2020 got the vast majority of voters who didn't vote "Straight Ticket" PD or PPD in 2020 between Governor and Mayor, and even Some Dalmau/Lúgaro voters, with Manuel Natal besting him due to the fact upwards of 92% of Lúgaro/Dalmau voters voted for him in 2020)
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