Trabajo de Investigación: Impact of the Stock Market on Peru’s Economic Growth during the Period 2003-2024, though a Hierarchical BVAR Model.
Revista: Revista de investigacion en modelos Financieros.
Resumen: This research examines the effect of stock market development on economic growth in Peru between 2003 and 2024, utilizing a hierarchical Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model. The study analyzes and explores the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic variables and financial stock market indicators. The findings indicate that a shock in the Lima Stock Exchange General Index generates a positive, albeit limited and transient, impact on economic growth and investment. Furthermore, trading volumes in variable and fixed income exert a positive influence on consumption and financial stability, respectively, although to a lesser extent. These results highlight the significance of the stock market in Peru's economic growth while simultaneously revealing the limitations of its current impact. Consequently, the study underscores the necessity for deeper structural development of the financial system to achieve more substantial and persistent effects on long-term economic growth.
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Trabajo de Investigación: The Effects of Oil Price Increases on Long-Term Growth Rates in Latin America.
Revista: Revista de investigacion en modelos Financieros.
Resumen: This article analyzes the dynamics of economic growth in Latin American countries in response to oil price shocks under different fiscal rules, using the calibration of a theoretical neoclassical growth model. Our findings indicate that an increase in oil prices positively impacts the growth rates of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) regardless of the fiscal rule applied. Fiscal rules incorporating Hartwick's rule appear to be the most effective in smoothing the impacts of these shocks due to their emphasis on investment as a buffering mechanism for the economy's productive capacity, whereas a structural surplus fiscal rule yields the greatest positive impacts on long-term economic growth. We also observe that the magnitude of the impact on growth rates significantly depends on the structural characteristics of each country. Finally, our results suggest a convergence in growth rates among Latin American countries.
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