Generoso Rémi, Couharde Cécile, Damette Olivier, Mohaddes Kamiar (2020). “The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña : Local Weather Conditions Matter”, Annals of Economics and Statistics, n°140, p. 83-126. 

This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analysing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather conditions, taking into account the heterogeneous and cumulative effects of weather patterns on economic growth and the asymmetry and nonlinearity in the global influence of ENSO on economic activity. Using data on 75 “teleconnected” countries over the period 1975-2014, we provide evidence for the negative growth effects of ENSO events and show that there are substantial differences between its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases and between climate zones. These differences are due to the heterogeneity in weather responses to ENSO events, known as teleconnections, which has so far not been taken into account by economists, and which will become more important in the climate-economy relationship given that climate change may substantially strengthen longdistance relationships between weather patterns around the world. We also show that the negative growth effects associated with these teleconnections are robust to the definition of ENSO events, to the use of alternative climatic variables and more important over shorter meteorological onsets. 

Couharde Cécile, Generoso Rémi (2017). “Economic Growth and Hydro-Climatic Thresholds in Developing Countries”, Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), p. 67-84. 

We highlight the fact that hydro-climatic conditions, measured by standardized indexes of precipitation and evapotranspiration, have a nonlinear impact on the economic growth of a sample of developing countries over the period 1980- 2011. We show (i) that this nonlinear relationship is only effective in developing agricultural-dependent countries, and (ii) that hydro-climatic conditions that drive changes in the pattern of economic growth are lower than those corresponding to extreme weather conditions. 

Generoso Rémi (2015). “How do rainfall variability, food security and remittances interact ? The case of rural Mali”, Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 188-198. 

In this paper, we rely on the CFSVA survey of 2005 to assess the impact of rainfall variability and remittances on the food security of rural households in Mali. To this end, we first design a composite food security index which enables us to distinguish households depending on their level of food security (low, intermediate, high). Then, we estimate a partial proportional odds logistic model in order to evaluate the main determinants leading to a switch from one level of food security to the other. We show that inter-annual and seasonal rainfall variability have a negative impact on food security. This is especially true in southern Mali, although agro-ecological conditions in this region are usually more favorable. As for remittances, their impact is positive, though it needs to be qualified: they enable households to solve temporary food security situations, but they have no effect on structural food security issues.

Couharde Cécile, Generoso Rémi (2015). “The ambiguous role of remittances in West African countries facing climate variability”, Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 493-515. 

We investigate the consequences of remittances inflows on the macroeconomic performance of West African countries over the 1985–2007 period. We take into account the exposure of those countries to climate variability by estimating a PCHVAR model which allows heterogeneity between countries’ responses to rainfall shocks. Our results show that the impact of remittances on macroeconomic performance is highly sensitive to those shocks. In particular, when drought conditions prevail, remittances no longer exert any short-term spillover effects on growth and may increase a situation of economic dependence, by spurring agricultural imports.