Rémi Generoso
Assistant Professor
University of Lille
Cité Scientifique
remi.generoso[at]univ-lille[dot]fr
Embedded Files
I am an Associate Professor in climate economics, affiliated with the Economics and Management Laboratory (LEM) at the University of Lille and an associate researcher at EconomiX, University of Paris Nanterre. My research in climate economics primarily focuses on analyzing the economic effects of climate change and climate variability. My research encompasses various areas, with a particular emphasis on analyzing the economic effects of climate variability and change through the use of advanced econometric techniques and predictive models. My research also concentrates on analyzing specific climatic phenomena such as the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and their impact on economic systems. I explore how these climatic events can lead to significant changes at local and regional scales in the agricultural sector, employment, and migration. More recently, I have taken an interest in evaluating the economic consequences of policies to mitigate concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5 and PM10), with a particular focus on the effects of these policies on inequalities and poverty.
Current Position
Current Position
Associate Professor, Lille Economie Management (LEM-CNRS), University of Lille.
Associate Researcher, EconomiX-CRNS, University of Paris Nanterre.
Areas of expertise
Areas of expertise
- Climate Economics
- Applied Econometrics
- Migration and Remittances
- Poverty and Inequality
Work in Progress
Work in Progress
The financial cost of stabilizing US farm income under climate change
The paper assesses the financial cost of federal farm programs in mitigating income losses due to drier conditions expected from climate change. Our study encompasses agricultural-producing counties within the conterminous United States during the census years from 2002 to 2017. We quantify historical drought patterns and their projected trends for the near (2020-2049) and more distant (2030-2059) future, using climate reanalysis data and 20 downscaled global circulation model products from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We estimate the relationship between federal agricultural payments and climate change by analyzing how farm income losses due to drier conditions affect the magnitude and distribution of these payments under the RCP 8.5 scenario. We predict that, under unmitigated climate change, payments from federal farm program should significantly increase to maintain their income - stabilization capacity, with a greater likelihood of much larger financial costs when accounting for statistical and climate uncertainties.
Estimated projected changes in US income support payments are calculated between the average period from 2030 to 2059 under RCP 8.5 and the average payments made during the recent past period (2002-2017).
The stabilization role of CAP direct payments: Some shocking aspects
We examine how different sources of farm income shocks shape the stabilization role provided by direct payments across 122 European regions during 2009-2017. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we predict farm income instability from three components: weather shocks by differencing their price effect from their total impact and other price shocks (non-weather-related price shocks). Our nonlinear IV estimates show an increasing stabilization effect of direct payments as we move upwards in the farm income distribution. Our analysis highlights the role of asymmetric shocks in explaining the regressive nature of direct payments. We show that these subsidies don't mitigate the effects of asymmetric shocks in poorer regions mainly exposed to adverse weather shocks.
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