Between 2015 and 2024, the global electricity system has changed dramatically, driven mainly by the world’s five biggest economies—the USA, China, Germany, France, and the UK. Each of these countries followed a different path based on their resources, politics, and policy goals. China rapidly built-up renewable energy while still relying heavily on coal. The USA used market trends and new technologies like shale gas and solar power to make a more flexible, market-driven shift. European countries like Germany, France, and the UK focused on government policies, using tools like carbon pricing, renewable energy targets, and regulatory reforms to cut emissions.

By comparing these countries, the analysis shows that the types of energy used for power generation were key to making progress toward cleaner energy. However, when countries changed their energy mix too quickly or unevenly, it sometimes hurt their economies and slowed down the transition.

As more countries start or speed up their energy transitions, these lessons are important. The key takeaways are the need for well-coordinated planning, flexible regulations, and policies that include all stakeholders. With the pressure to act on climate change growing, this article looks back on the last decade to offer useful guidance for shaping the future of the global energy transition. Here is country wise analysis of their decarbonisation and economic development:

Analysis: U.S. Decarbonisation and Economic Development (2015–2024)

1. Decarbonisation Trends by Source

Between 2015 and 2024, the U.S. electricity generation profile underwent a significant transformation:

• Coal-fired generation fell drastically from 1352 TWh to 653 TWh, registering a CAGR of -7.8%, reflecting policy shifts, retirement of aging plants, and competitive displacement by gas and renewables.

• Natural gas grew steadily, increasing from 1333 TWh to 1865 TWh (CAGR: 3.8%), becoming the backbone of transitional baseload power.

• Wind and solar (VRE) experienced the strongest growth:

  • Solar grew from 39 TWh to 303 TWh (CAGR: 25.6%),

  • Wind from 191 TWh to 453 TWh (CAGR: 10.1%),

  • Together, VRE Share (wind and solar) share reached 757 TWh (41.92% of total) by 2024, up from 230 TWh (33.15% f total) in 2015

• Nuclear remained relatively stable (~780 TWh), showing its resilience as a clean baseload source.

• The total clean generation (RE + nuclear) increased from 1354 TWh to 1839 TWh, achieving a CAGR of 3.5%, overtaking fossil generation by volume.

2. Economic Performance and Energy Demand

• The U.S. GDP grew from $18.3 trillion in 2015 to $23.1 trillion in 2024, implying a CAGR of 2.9%, reflecting moderate but steady economic expansion during the transition.

• However, per capita electricity consumption declined slightly from 12,872 kWh to 12,716 kWh (CAGR: -0.15%). This decoupling suggests:

  • Improved energy efficiency across sectors,

  • Shifts in economic structure (toward less energy-intensive services),

  • Possible saturation of residential demand,

  • Impact of distributed solar and demand response measures.

3. Strategy deployed by US

The U.S. was able to lower the carbon intensity of its electricity supply without hurting economic growth. This was made possible by a strong increase in renewable energy (mainly solar and wind), continued support for nuclear power, and a planned move from coal to natural gas. These steps helped reduce emissions while keeping the energy supply reliable. At the same time, a slight drop in per capita electricity use points to better energy efficiency, not a lack of access. Together, these trends show how a balanced and practical energy transition can work—offering useful lessons for developing countries that want to cut emissions without slowing growth

Analysis: China’s Decarbonisation and Economic Development (2015–2024)

Based on the data for China (2015–2024), the decarbonisation and economic development analysis is as follows:

1. Decarbonisation Trends by Source

China’s electricity generation expanded significantly, reflecting its status as the fastest-growing major energy market:

• Total electricity generation increased from 5815 TWh to 10070 TWh, a CAGR of 6.3%.

• Coal generation, although increasing in absolute terms (from 4046 TWh to 5858 TWh, CAGR 4.2%), saw a declining share due to the rapid rise of clean energy.

• Gas and other fossil fuels also grew but remain minor contributors.

• Nuclear generation expanded from 171 TWh to 445 TWh (CAGR: 11.2%), enhancing clean baseload capacity.

• Renewables showed remarkable progress:

  • Hydro grew moderately (~1115 TWh to 1354 TWh),

  • VRE Share (Solar and wind) saw explosive growth, with VRE share rising from 3.9% to 18.1%,

  • The combined wind and solar output went from 224 TWh to 1215 TWh, CAGR: ~21%.

Despite the coal volume increase, carbon intensity of generation declined due to the strong penetration of nuclear and renewables.

2. Economic and Electricity Consumption Trends

• GDP increased from $11.06 trillion to $17.18 trillion, showing a CAGR of 5.7%, sustaining its position as the world’s second-largest economy.

• Per capita electricity consumption grew from 4017 kWh to 6112 kWh (CAGR: 5.6%), closely tracking GDP.

  • This reflects a strong link between energy demand and economic growth,

  • Industrial output, rising household consumption, and urbanisation drove electricity use.

China’s development model remains energy-intensive, but its cleaner generation mix is helping to control emissions intensity.

3. Strategy deployed by China

China shows how a large-scale, government-led energy transition can work, combining huge additions in renewable energy with continued use of coal and growing support for nuclear power. The key lessons are that strong planning and investment can quickly change the energy mix, and that it’s possible to reduce emissions even while energy demand keeps rising. The main challenges ahead for China are better grid integration, reducing curtailment of renewables, and increasing flexibility on the demand side.

Analysis: Germany’s Decarbonisation and Economic Development (2015–2024)

1. Decarbonisation Trends by Source

Germany’s energy transition over the last decade reflects a policy-driven, structural shift away from fossil and nuclear sources toward renewables:

• Coal-fired generation declined sharply from 272 TWh to 104 TWh (CAGR: -10.1%), driven by carbon pricing, plant retirements, and public opposition.

• Natural gas stayed relatively stable (from 61 TWh to 79 TWh), acting as a flexible backup.

• Nuclear generation was phased out entirely by 2023, from 92 TWh to 0 TWh, consistent with Germany’s nuclear exit policy (Energiewende).

• Wind and solar (VRE) emerged as the backbone of the clean energy system:

  • Wind grew from 88 TWh to 143 TWh,

  • Solar from 38 TWh to 60 TWh,

  • Combined VRE rose from 126 TWh to 204 TWh.

• The share of VRE in total generation increased from 18.6% to 42.9%, reflecting significant integration success.

Despite the gains, total generation declined from 639 TWh to 477 TWh (CAGR: -3.2%), showing contraction in domestic generation possibly due to:

• Greater imports from neighbors,

• Enhanced energy efficiency,

• Declining industrial load or structural shifts.

2. Economic Growth and Energy Use

• GDP rose modestly from $3.42 trillion to $3.69 trillion (CAGR: ~0.95%), consistent with a mature, stable economy.

• Per capita electricity consumption decreased significantly, from 7032 kWh to 6045 kWh (CAGR: -1.9%).

  • This reflects efficiency improvements, demand-side measures, and possibly reduced industrial electricity intensity.

  • It also indicates decoupling of economic growth from electricity demand—a hallmark of developed economies with strong energy efficiency norms and structural shifts toward services.

3. Strategy deployed by Germany

Germany shows how a policy-driven and socially supported approach can lead to successful decarbonisation. It phased out nuclear power early, reduced its use of coal, and saw strong growth in wind and solar energy. At the same time, it maintained economic stability while using less electricity per person. This example proves that deep emissions cuts are possible without harming the economy—but it also highlights the need for clear regulations, a flexible power grid, and strong public support. However, it also increased its electricity imports from France (mainly nuclear) and raised the retail electricity prices significantly.

Analysis: France’s Decarbonisation and Economic Development (2015–2024)

1. Decarbonisation Trends by Source

France’s electricity generation is unique among major economies due to its historic reliance on nuclear power, which continued to play a central role:

• Nuclear remained the dominant source, though output fell from 437 TWh to 379 TWh (CAGR: -1.6%), partly due to aging infrastructure, maintenance cycles, and public scepticism.

• Coal generation declined sharply from 11.9 TWh to 1.7 TWh, a CAGR of -19.4%, nearly phasing it out.

• Natural gas stayed volatile, peaking in 2017 (~41 TWh), then declining to 19 TWh by 2024, indicating its limited role.

• Renewables filled the gap:

  • Hydropower remained stable (~55–70 TWh),

  • Solar and wind (VRE) grew from ~57 TWh to 138 TWh, increasing their share from 16% to 26% of total generation.

  • Total VRE contribution nearly doubled, supported by FITs and EU targets.

Overall, France reduced total fossil generation from 45 TWh to 32 TWh, while maintaining a low-carbon grid profile anchored by nuclear and expanding VRE.

2. Economic Development and Energy Efficiency

• GDP increased from $2.44 trillion to $2.67 trillion, a modest but steady CAGR of ~1.1%, reflecting France’s mature economic status.

• Per capita electricity consumption declined from 7201 kWh to 6457 kWh (CAGR: -1.35%):

  • This aligns with enhanced energy efficiency,

  • Reduced industrial intensity,

  • And behavioural changes, including smart consumption and electrification control mechanisms.

France has maintained a very low-carbon electricity mix, with emissions per kWh among the lowest in the world—owing to nuclear dominance and VRE scaling.

3. Strategy deployed by France

France presents a nuclear-led approach to decarbonisation, with renewables playing a supporting role. Its experience highlights steady clean baseload power, a gradual decline in fossil fuel use, and major gains in electricity efficiency without slowing economic growth. This well-balanced, low-carbon model offers a middle path between fossil-based transitions like the U.S. and renewable-heavy systems like Germany—showing how countries can balance energy security, emission cuts, and affordability.

Analysis: UK’s Decarbonisation and Economic Development (2015–2024)

1. Decarbonisation Trends by Source

The UK stands out globally for rapid fossil fuel phaseout and renewable integration, led by policy reforms and market restructuring:

• Coal-fired generation collapsed from 76 TWh to just 2.3 TWh, a CAGR of -29%, approaching complete elimination.

• Natural gas declined moderately from 100 TWh to 84 TWh, retaining some role in peaking and flexibility.

• Other fossil sources remained minor contributors (~10 TWh).

• Nuclear output also declined from 70 TWh to 41 TWh, reflecting aging fleet and limited new capacity.

• Renewables (especially wind and solar) surged:

  • Wind grew from ~40 TWh to ~105 TWh,

  • Solar from ~8 TWh to ~17 TWh,

  • Total VRE share rose from 14% to over 35% of generation.

• Total electricity generation declined from 339 TWh to 281 TWh, implying structural energy efficiency and possibly reduced demand from heavy industry.

2. Economic Development and Energy Use

• GDP grew from $2.92 trillion to $3.23 trillion, with a CAGR of 1.27%, indicating stable, moderate growth.

• Per capita electricity consumption fell significantly, from 5076 kWh to 4144 kWh (CAGR: -2.5%), indicating:

  • High levels of energy efficiency,

  • Demand-side management,

  • Structural shifts toward less energy-intensive sectors,

  • Electrification offset by improved appliance and building performance.

3. Strategy deployed by UK

The UK stands out as one of the most successful examples of energy transition among developed countries. It sharply reduced coal use, steadily cut down on fossil fuels, and expanded renewables—especially offshore wind. At the same time, its economy continued to grow even as electricity demand fell. The UK’s experience shows how strong policies like carbon pricing, market reforms, and contracts for difference (CfDs), along with clear institutions, can support a cost-effective and credible transition. However, like Germany, it’s share of electricity imports rose significantly coupled with high retail prices. This offers useful lessons for both advanced economies and those still reforming their energy systems.

Lesson: Renewable-Led Decarbonisation Sustains but Does Not Accelerate Economic Growth

The decade-long energy transition across the top five economies reveals that renewable energy-led decarbonisation has supported economic stability but has not necessarily driven higher economic growth, particularly in mature economies. Here's how:

Germany, France, and the UK

• These countries undertook policy-led decarbonisation, aggressively reducing coal and fossil generation while expanding VRE (wind and solar).

• GDP growth remained modest:

  • Germany: ~0.95%

  • France: ~1.1%

  • UK: ~1.27%

• Per capita electricity consumption declined, indicating improved efficiency but also reflecting economic maturity and structural shifts away from energy-intensive industries.

• These cases show that renewables ensured economic resilience, but did not boost growth rates.

China

• China pursued a dual-path strategy—scaling renewables at record speed while continuing heavy reliance on coal.

• This pragmatic approach delivered:

  • High GDP growth (~5.7% CAGR),

  • Significant rise in per capita electricity consumption (~5.6% CAGR),

  • A massive expansion in both energy supply and economic output.

• This indicates that continued fossil fuel use, alongside renewables, enabled higher economic momentum, especially for a developing economy undergoing industrialization and urbanisation.

Implication

• The contrast underscores a critical reality:

While renewable energy is essential for long-term sustainability, it alone has not been a driver of accelerated economic growth in advanced economies.
China’s growth trajectory suggests that when energy demand is still growing, fossil fuels—particularly coal—have played a transitional role in powering rapid expansion.

The U.S. experience sits between the European model of renewable-led decarbonisation and China’s coal-reinforced energy expansion: It has only moderately reduced the fossil fuel share in electricity and retained the nuclear share while aggressively adding renewables.

Key Characteristics:

  GDP grew from $18.3T to $23.1T, a healthy CAGR of 2.9%, higher than Germany, France, or the UK.

  Per capita electricity consumption slightly declined (–0.15% CAGR), indicating:

·        Energy efficiency improvements,

·        Sectoral shift toward services and digital economy,

·        Possibly distributed energy (rooftop solar, storage) playing a role.

·        Final Positioning in Comparative Terms:

Country Transition Model   GDP Growth (CAGR)   Energy Role in Growth

China Coal + RE + Planning        High (~5.7%) Energy enabled growth

USA Gas + RE + Markets     Moderate (~2.9%) Energy sustained growth

Germany RE + Nuclear exit     Low (~0.95%) Energy neutral/stabilising

France Nuclear + RE     Low (~1.1%) Energy efficient but flat

UK RE + Carbon pricing     Low (~1.27%) Energy decoupled  growth

A well-managed energy transition can support sustained economic growth or ensure economic stability, depending on a country’s development stage and policy choices. While shifting to cleaner energy sources often requires upfront investment, it also creates long-term benefits through improved energy security, reduced fuel import dependence, and job creation in new industries like renewables and energy efficiency. Countries that align their transition with industrial policy, infrastructure development, and innovation—such as China—have demonstrated that decarbonisation can go hand-in-hand with rapid economic growth. Others, like Germany and the UK, have shown that a carefully designed transition can preserve economic stability even as fossil fuels are phased out. The key lies in strategic planning, investment in grid and storage infrastructure, and ensuring social and institutional support throughout the transition.

Strategic Alignment of India’s Decarbonisation with Growth Ambitions – Lessons from China’s Model

As India charts its path to becoming a developed economy by 2047, the central policy challenge lies in balancing sustained high economic growth with an increasingly urgent energy transition. Currently,India’s per capita electricity consumption stands at approximately 1,300 kWh—about one-third of the global average. To achieve the status of a developed nation, this figure may need to rise to at least 5,000 kWh, reflecting the energy intensity typically associated with higher standards of living and industrial development. Drawing from the global experience of the past decade, particularly China’s model, it is evident that a pragmatic, scale-driven, and growth-compatible decarbonisation strategy offers critical lessons for India.

China’s success between 2015 and 2024 lay in its dual-track approach: it invested heavily in renewable energy, achieving one of the world’s largest expansions in wind and solar capacity, while simultaneously retaining coal as a transitional backbone to meet the demands of rapid industrialisation, urbanisation, and infrastructure growth. This model enabled China to raise its GDP by over 5.7% annually and increase per capita electricity consumption by more than 5.6%—a testament to the essential role of reliable, scalable energy in supporting development.

India should adopt a similarly calibrated strategy. This means aggressively scaling up renewable energy, grid infrastructure, and storage, but without prematurely dismantling coal-based capacity that ensures baseload reliability and affordability for a growing economy. A just, phased coal transition—anchored in technology upgrades (e.g., supercritical plants, carbon capture), regulated emissions, and repurposing assets—can coexist with India’s renewables ambition. Simultaneously, India should prioritise industrial electrification, battery and solar manufacturing, and long-term investments in transmission corridors and dispatchable clean technologies like nuclear and pumped hydro.

This is not an argument against climate ambition; rather, it is a call for sequencing—ensuring that the pace of decarbonisation does not constrain the trajectory of growth. As a nation with rising energy needs, a large population, and manufacturing aspirations, India must prioritise energy adequacy, affordability, and resilience alongside emissions reduction.

A China-style model, adapted to India’s federal and market structure, offers a realistic pathway: one where development is not compromised for climate compliance, and where energy transition is treated as an enabler—not a brake—on India’s growth story.

Sources:

1. All Electricity Generation data has been taken from Ember Data Explorer

2. GSP data and Per Capita Electricity Consumption data has been taken from World Bank Database

Attached Data Files