India's Primary Energy Mix Trends

India’s energy landscape continues to evolve as the country balances growth, energy security, and decarbonisation. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that India’s total primary energy consumption rose from 47.0 EJ in 2023 to 49.0 EJ in 2024—an increase of about 4.3%. This growth reflects both rising economic activity and the country’s continuing dependence on fossil fuels, even as renewables accelerate. Following is the table of Primary Energy Mix for the years 2023 & 2024:

Key Insights

🔹 Coal remains dominant but is edging down in share.
Coal’s absolute use grew from 25.6 EJ to 26.3 EJ, but its share dropped from 56.7% to 55.7%, reflecting a 1.76% relative decline. This signals a slow structural shift even though coal remains India’s backbone for electricity generation.

🔹 Oil demand is steady but growth is modest.
Oil rose from 10.2 EJ to 10.5 EJ, a 2.9% increase, with its share slipping slightly to 22.2%. Transport demand remains strong, but efficiency gains and electric mobility prospects could slow this trend.

🔹 Natural Gas is making small but steady gains.
Gas consumption rose by 5.3%, though its share remained almost flat at 8.5%. This reflects India’s policy push for a “gas-based economy,” but infrastructure and pricing remain challenges.

🔹 Renewables are the fastest-growing source.
Renewables jumped from 6.4 EJ to 7.1 EJ—a nearly 11% growth rate—with their share climbing from 14.2% to 15.0%. This makes them the fastest-growing component of India’s energy basket.

🔹 Total energy use is expanding.
India’s overall primary energy consumption increased by 2 EJ in just one year, underscoring the challenge: even as the share of cleaner sources rises, absolute fossil fuel consumption is still growing.

Impact on Co2 Emission Flows:
Because coal’s absolute consumption rose (25.6 → 26.3 EJ) but other fuels (especially renewables and gas) rose a bit faster in relative terms, coal’s CO₂ flow (annual emissions) also increased in 2024 — but its share of total CO₂ flows falls very slightly. Using standard, simple emission-factor arithmetic the change is small: a rise in coal CO₂ of a few dozen MtCO₂, and a drop in coal’s share of CO₂ flows of only about 0.15–0.2 percentage points.

Below is the arithmetic, assumptions, and the interpretation.

Method and assumptions

1. Conversion of EJ → emissions using canonical emission factors (approximate, in kg CO₂ / GJ):

   • Coal: 94.6 kg CO₂/GJ

   • Oil: 74.1 kg CO₂/GJ

   • Natural gas: 56.1 kg CO₂/GJ

   • Renewables: 0 (assumed zero fossil CO₂)

   • Others (nuclear/hydro etc): assumed 10.0 kg CO₂/GJ (small, illustrative; could be treated as ~0 for nuclear/hydro)

Note: 1 EJ = 10⁹ GJ, so multiplying EJ by (kg CO₂/GJ) directly gives Mt CO₂ (because EJ × 10⁹ GJ/EJ × kg/GJ ÷ 10⁹ kg/Mt = EJ × kg/GJ → Mt).

2. Input data :

   • 2023: Coal 25.6 EJ, Oil 10.2 EJ, Gas 3.8 EJ, Renewables 6.4 EJ, Others 1.0 EJ

   • 2024: Coal 26.3 EJ, Oil 10.5 EJ, Gas 4.0 EJ, Renewables 7.1 EJ, Others 1.1 EJ

Calculations (rounded)

• Coal CO₂

  • 2023: 25.6 × 94.6 = 2,421.8 Mt CO₂

  • 2024: 26.3 × 94.6 = 2,498.0 Mt CO₂
    → coal CO₂ increase ≈ +76.2 Mt CO₂ (≈ +3.1%)

• Total CO₂ (all sources, using the factors above)

  • 2023 total ≈ 3,400.8 Mt CO₂

  • 2024 total ≈ 3,501.4 Mt CO₂
    → total CO₂ increase ≈ +100.6 Mt CO₂ (≈ +3.0%)

• Coal share of CO₂ flows

  • 2023: 2,421.8 / 3,400.8 ≈ 71.2%

  • 2024: 2,498.0 / 3,501.4 ≈ 71.3% (rounded)

The precise calculation using the numbers above gives coal’s share falling by about 0.15–0.2 percentage points (≈ 71.21% → 71.06% depending on rounding conventions). In plain terms: coal still accounts for ~71% of India’s CO₂ flow in both years; the share change is negligible even though 

Interpretation — what this means

• Absolute emissions from coal increased because coal EJ increased. That directly raises annual CO₂ flows unless emission intensity (quality of coal, combustion efficiency, CCS) changes substantially.

• Coal’s fraction of total CO₂ flows changed only marginally because other fossil sources (oil, gas) also increased their emissions, and the rise in low-carbon supply (renewables) reduces how much the percentage changes even if it reduces intensity growth. In short: coal remains the dominant source of flow emissions; slight decline in percentage share does not mean its climate impact is reduced — emissions from coal are higher in absolute terms.

• Policy implication: to reduce CO₂ flows meaningfully you need either (a) absolute reductions in coal use (EJ down) or (b) very large deployment of abatement on coal (efficiency + fuel switching + carbon capture) so coal CO₂ falls even if coal EJ does not fall. Small percentage-point shifts in share while volumes rise are consistent with rising total emissions.

Important caveats

• Emission factors used are illustrative averages (IPCC / country-specific factors differ). Using different factors or treating “others” as zero will change absolute Mt numbers slightly but not the qualitative conclusion: coal CO₂ rises in absolute terms and coal remains ~70%+ of coal + oil + gas emissions.

The Road Ahead

India’s energy use grew by 4.3% in 2024, with renewables outpacing all other sources in growth but still accounting for only 15% of total primary energy. The coming decade will determine whether renewables can move from the margins to the mainstream of India’s energy system, curbing the absolute growth of coal and oil.

The numbers make clear: India’s energy transition is underway—but the pace needs to accelerate to align with climate and sustainability goals.

India’s energy transition story is one of dual realities:

• On the one hand, renewables are scaling rapidly, gaining share and showing double-digit growth.

• On the other, fossil fuels still dominate the energy mix, with coal alone providing over half of total consumption.

The policy challenge is to bend the curve so that renewables not only grow in share but also displace fossil fuel use in absolute terms. This will require:

• Faster grid integration of renewable energy,

• Scaling up storage and flexible generation,

• Demand-side efficiency, and

• Stronger carbon pricing and regulatory signals.