Introduction: the crossroads of energy and climate

India stands today at the intersection of development ambitions and climate responsibility. With rapid economic growth, a rising population, and urbanization, its demand for energy continues to surge. Yet, India has also pledged to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070, a commitment that aligns its long-term trajectory with global climate goals under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. The challenge is stark: can India sustain growth while transitioning away from an energy system that is still overwhelmingly fossil-fuel based?

The latest NITI Aayog dataset on primary energy consumption, covering the years 2005–06 to 2023–24, sheds important light on this journey. It provides clear evidence of progress in non-fossil energy but also highlights the continued and overwhelming reliance on coal, oil, and natural gas. This blog unpacks what the numbers tell us about India’s clean energy trajectory, identifies the dominant sources shaping the mix, and evaluates what is required to move credibly towards net-zero by 2070.

India’s current primary energy mix

By 2023–24, India’s total primary energy supply was 915 mtoe. Of this, fossil fuels contributed 870 mtoe, while hydro, nuclear, and renewables together made up only 44 mtoe. This translates to nearly 95% dependence on fossil fuels. The dominance of coal is especially striking coal alone supplied about 548 mtoe, dwarfing the contributions of oil (around 263 mtoe) and natural gas (59 mtoe). Among non-fossils, hydro remains around 11.5 mtoe, nuclear about 12.5 mtoe, and renewables about 20 mtoe. While renewables have grown rapidly in percentage terms, they are still a rounding error compared to coal.

Growth trends: fossils growing, non-fossils racing but from a tiny base

Looking back over 18 years, from 2005 to 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of total primary energy was about 5% per year. Fossil fuels grew at 4.9% per year, while non-fossils expanded at nearly 21.7% annually. The faster growth of non-fossils demonstrates strong momentum, particularly in solar and wind. However, absolute scale matters. In 2005, fossils were about 366 mtoe, while non-fossils were just 13.95 mtoe. By 2023, fossils had risen to 870 mtoe, while non-fossils had only reached 44.34 mtoe. Thus, the absolute gap has widened despite the higher growth rate of non-fossils. The data highlights a structural truth: new renewables have so far largely met incremental demand rather than displacing fossil fuels.

The business-as-usual trajectory

If historical growth rates continue, India’s energy future is locked into high fossil dependence. Projecting forward at 5% CAGR, total primary energy demand would rise almost ten-fold by 2070. Fossil use would continue to expand, and even with non-fossils growing faster, their share would remain relatively small. This makes clear that business-as-usual is incompatible with net-zero. Without deliberate intervention, India will not only miss its climate goals but also face rising import dependence and pollution.

Reframing net-zero: allowing for residual fossil use

Net-zero, as defined by the UNFCCC and IPCC, does not mean the complete elimination of fossil fuels. Instead, it means balancing residual fossil emissions with removals. Recognizing this, I modelled a pathway where in 2070, fossil fuels still account for 15% of primary energy, with their emissions offset by carbon sinks or technologies.

Two scenarios emerge:

1. High demand growth (5% CAGR): Total primary energy would reach ~9,062 mtoe by 2070. Fossils at 15% would equal ~1,360 mtoe. This means fossil use could still rise slightly (0.95% CAGR from today), but non-fossils would need to expand to 7702 mtoe at CAGR of 11.2% annually for five decades — an extraordinary and historically unprecedented feat as currently under BAU, it is growing at modest CAGR of 6.64%.

2. Moderate demand growth (3% CAGR): Total demand would reach ~3,670 mtoe by 2070. Fossils at 15% equal ~550 mtoe. In this scenario, fossil use must decline modestly (−0.97% CAGR), while non-fossils grow at about 9.47 % CAGR. While still daunting, this is more feasible than the high-growth case.

The scenarios underline the importance of moderating demand growth alongside expanding non-fossil supply.

CO₂ implications and the role of removals

Using IPCC default emission factors, fossil fuels in 2023–24 emitted several billion tonnes of CO₂. If fossil consumption continues to rise at historical rates, emissions in 2070 would be many times higher than today. Even under a 15% fossil-share scenario, the residual emissions in 2070 remain very large. These must be neutralised by carbon removals.

India will therefore need to build a removals ecosystem that can deliver billions of tonnes of CO₂ offsets annually by 2070. This will include:
- Large-scale afforestation and reforestation to expand natural carbon sinks.
- Deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
- Direct air capture with storage (DACCS) as the technology matures.
- Soil carbon enhancement and other land-based measures.

Removals are not a substitute for cutting fossil use but a necessary complement to handle residual emissions. Early investments will be crucial to scale these options affordably and reliably.

Why these numbers matter

Several lessons stand out from this analysis:

1. Coal remains at the core of India’s energy system. In 2023–24, its contribution stood at nearly 548 mtoe—over 17 times greater than the combined supply of all renewables. Without a carefully managed phase-down of coal, achieving net zero will be impossible. Coal is the elephant in the room, and any credible net-zero pathway will demand an exceptionally rapid reduction in its use.

2. Renewables are essential, but they cannot shoulder the transition on their own. Their growth has been remarkable, yet their absolute contribution remains modest. To make a real difference, renewables must shift from merely meeting incremental demand to actively displacing fossil fuels. Despite recording the fastest CAGR—over 20% between 2005 and 2023—their share is still so small that, in the overall energy mix, they barely register beyond a rounding error.

3. Demand growth is the true wild card in India’s energy transition. If overall energy consumption expands too quickly, the scale of non-fossil capacity required becomes unmanageable. This makes efficiency, electrification, and structural transformation indispensable to moderating demand. India’s primary energy use has grown at about 5% annually since 2005, and while efficiency gains and sectoral shifts may temper this pace, rising demand is inevitable given the country’s demographics and development path.

4. Removals must be mainstreamed. India cannot ignore carbon removals if it is serious about net-zero. Building institutions, markets, and infrastructure for removals should start now.

5. Policy alignment is key. Reforms must span power, industry, transport, buildings, and agriculture. Fragmented approaches will not deliver the required scale of transformation.

Beyond arithmetic: the transformation agenda

Numbers provide clarity, but achieving net-zero is about systemic transformation:

- Power sector: Massive renewable buildout, flexible grids, large-scale storage, and accelerated coal retirements.
- Industry: Transition from coal-based processes to green hydrogen, electrification, and CCS.
- Transport: Electric vehicles, mass transit, and clean fuels for hard-to-electrify modes.
- Buildings: Efficiency retrofits, clean cooking, and electrified heating/cooling.
- Agriculture: Low-emission practices, solar irrigation, and biomass utilisation.

This transition will require enormous investments. Estimates suggest India will need more than USD 10 trillion by 2070. Global finance, technology transfer, and carbon markets will be essential enablers.

India in the global and national context

India’s pathway must be seen in the wider context:

- Equity: India’s per-capita emissions remain well below those of developed countries. Its net-zero strategy must protect developmental priorities.
- Energy security: Reducing reliance on imported oil and gas improves resilience and reduces exposure to global volatility.
- Climate urgency: The global 1.5°C goal requires steep emissions cuts before 2070. India’s choices will have a decisive global impact.

Conclusion: the scale and the opportunity

The NITI Aayog primary energy dataset makes one fact undeniable: India’s energy system is still overwhelmingly fossil based. Business-as-usual growth is incompatible with net-zero. Even under a realistic 15% fossil-share framing for 2070, India must achieve unprecedented rates of clean energy expansion, moderate demand growth, and build a vast removals ecosystem.

This is a daunting task, but it is also an opportunity. It promises energy security, cleaner air, new industries, and green jobs. The destination is clear. The numbers remind us that the journey will be difficult — but also that it is possible if India chooses to accelerate.