Publications
"Corruption, trade liberalization and firm productivity: Evidence from Vietnam" (with C. Tomasi), 2026, European Economic Review, 184, 105264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105264
Abstract: This paper investigates how corruption influences the gains from trade liberalization. Using firm-level data from Vietnam from 2000 to 2012, which includes the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the analysis provides robust causal evidence, based on fixed effects and instrumental variable estimation techniques, that corruption mitigates the positive impact of tariff reduction on firm productivity. One key mechanism through which corruption may limit productivity is by reducing importing. The paper shows that the likelihood of importing following input tariff cuts is lower for firms in provinces with higher corruption. We examine the broader implications of our firm-level findings and show that, in a counterfactual scenario without corruption, Vietnam’s productivity gains from trade liberalization would have been higher.
"Greasing or Grinding? Regulatory context and the productivity effects of corruption: Evidence from Vietnamese SMEs" (with C. Tomasi and T. N. L. Nguyen), 2025, European Journal of Political Economy, 89, 102727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102727
Abstract: This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of bribery on the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam. Using panel data from the Vietnam Small and Medium Enterprise Survey (VSMES) and an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity, we find that corruption generally reduces firm productivity. However, its impact varies across institutional contexts: the negative effect is stronger in provinces with efficient regulatory environments and weaker where firms face high bureaucratic burdens or identify government inefficiency as a key constraint. These findings support a weak form of the “grease the wheels” hypothesis, suggesting bribery may act as a costly coping strategy in poorly governed settings. The results highlight the importance of regulatory quality in moderating the effects of corruption and point to the need for reforms that address both corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies.
"Trade liberalization and firms' productivity in Vietnam: the role of local business environment" (with C. Tomasi), 2023, Regional Studies, 57(9), 1681–1713. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2022.2155297
Abstract: This paper examines how frictions in the local business environment where firms operate alter the productivity gains from trade. Using Vietnamese firm-level data from 2006 to 2012, the analysis provides robust evidence of a positive effect of trade opening on firms' efficiency. However, distortions that operate through certain local market features in the form of unenforceable property rights, an ineffective land-titling system, bureaucratic hurdles and labour market frictions play a crucial role in the transmission of trade liberalization shocks. These findings have important policy implications because they suggest that complementary policies addressing local market constraints need to be implemented alongside trade reforms.
Preprint: [pdf]
Works in progress
"Trade liberalization, skill demand, and workforce composition: evidence from Vietnamese SMEs" (with F. Pieri and C. Tomasi), DEM Working Papers N. 2026/02.
Abstract: This paper studies how trade liberalization affects firms’ skill demand and workforce composition using panel data on Vietnamese manufacturing small and medium enterprises over the period 2003-2014. We exploit the sharp and externally driven reductions in output and input tariffs associated with Vietnam’s accession to the World Trade Organization as a source of quasi-experimental variation in trade exposure. Distinguishing between output and input tariff reductions, we show that these two channels of trade liberalization have statistically significant and opposite effects on firms’ workforce composition. Output tariff cuts reduce the skill ratio, consistent with specialization in labor-intensive activities, although the associated employment effects are weaker and less precisely estimated. By contrast, input tariff reductions induce an absolute skill-biased adjustment, increasing skilled employment and reducing unskilled labor. At the occupational level, input liberalization increases managerial employment and reduces production jobs, pointing to organizational changes within firms. Output liberalization is associated with a decline in managerial employment, although these estimates are less precisely estimated. These findings contribute to the literature by providing robust evidence on the distinct roles of output and input tariff reductions and by documenting how trade liberalization reshapes workforce composition across both skill groups and occupations within firms. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the importance of access to foreign inputs in fostering workforce upgrading and organizational transformation among small and medium enterprises in developing countries.
"Mission Impossible? Challenges for Countries in Escaping the Middle-Income Trap" (with Q.-T. Tran), submitted.
Abstract: Why do some economies manage to escape the middle-income trap while others remain trapped? To answer this question, we develop an overlapping-generations model in which economies can choose between a primitive technology subject to diminishing returns and an advanced technology capable of sustaining long-run growth. Adoption becomes viable only when human capital, capital-use efficiency, and demographic conditions are sufficiently favorable; otherwise, the economy may converge to a middle-income steady state from which escape is nearly impossible. We test these predictions using panel data for 185 economies over 1950--2023. The results show that higher human capital and stronger institutional quality are robustly associated with a greater likelihood of escape, whereas aging becomes an obstacle primarily for economies that grow old before achieving high-income status. Additional evidence based on economic complexity and imports of manufactures and machinery supports the model's central technology-adoption mechanism which determines whether an economy successfully completes the transition out of middle-income status.
Manuscript: [pdf]
"Innovation capability and the sustainability payoff of digitalization: an empirical analysis" (with H. B. Nguyen), submitted.
"On the relationship between intellectual capital and sustainable growth: evidence from Vietnam" (with H. B. Nguyen), submitted.
"Beyond the assembly trap: network asymmetry and sustainable supply-chain resilience in Vietnam’s electronics global value chain" (with V. P. Hoang, L. C. Hoang and T. T. Huynh), in preparation.
"Adjustment to eco-geo policies in Vietnam" (with K. H. Le, H. B. Nguyen, H. P. Do, M. H. Duong and T. M. T. Huynh), under development.
"Advancing high-quality growth and sustainable development in Vietnam" (with H. D. X. Trieu, H. B. Nguyen, D. H. Nguyen, H. P. Do, M. H. Duong and M. T. N. Phan), under development.
"Global value chain restructuring and Vietnam's resilience to multidimensional shocks" (with V. P. Hoang and T. T. Huynh), under development.
Editorial services (ad hoc reviewer)
2026: International Economics and Economic Policy (1), Journal of International Economics and Management (1), SN Business & Economics (1), Economia e Politica Industriale (1), International Review of Economics and Finance (1), Discover Environment (1), Annals of Regional Science (1)
2024: Regional Studies (1)