Abstract: I study mineral export restrictions, a policy increasingly used by resource-rich developing countries to promote downstream industrialization. I develop a general equilibrium model in which these restrictions serve a dual purpose: improving the terms of trade and implicitly subsidizing downstream manufacturing by lowering domestic mineral prices. In a setting with multiple production stages, the latter role creates a policy dilemma. While the subsidy is strongest in industries immediately downstream of the restricted mineral, welfare gains depend on expansion in later stages closer to final demand. Using a novel global dataset of mineral export restrictions combined with product-level upstream-downstream linkages, I show the dilemma binds: downstream export gains are concentrated in the first processing stage and in base metals, but attenuate rapidly along the value chain and disappear for technologically complex and input-intensive products. Overall, mineral export restrictions can generate narrow downstream expansion but do not deliver the broad-based industrial upgrading that many developing-country governments envision.

[SSRN Working Paper]

Selected Presentations: ETSG 2025 Conference (Milan), AEA 2026 Annual Meeting (Philadelphia), 18th FIW Research Conference (Vienna), Junior Applied Economics Seminar (LSE), CSAE 2026 Annual Conference (Oxford), Midwest Trade Conference (Ohio State), 1st ISSCAD Global South Development Conference (Beijing), Banca d'Italia - ECB 5th Conference*(Rome), Kiel Institute 2nd Industrial Policy Lab Annual Conference* (Berlin), STEG Annual Conference and Theme Workshops 2027* (Manchester).

Abstract: China's integration into world markets fueled spectacular growth in its manufacturing regions. This paper shows that such growth came at the expense of another China: regions outside the manufacturing core. Exploiting reduced U.S. trade policy uncertainty following China's WTO accession, I find that greater exposure expanded manufacturing in core counties but reduced it in the periphery. While core counties diversified, peripheral counties failed to absorb labor released from agriculture and experienced industrial downgrading. A spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous regional productivity distributions and internal migration accounts for these patterns, showing that trade integration can exacerbate pre-existing spatial inequality.

Under Review.  [SSRN Working Paper] 

Selected Presentations: RES 2024 PhD Conference (Portsmouth), 18th RGS Doctoral Conference (Dortmund), The Economics and Politics of Inequality in China Conference (Manchester), UEA 2026 European Meeting (Barcelona), 13th RUSE Conference (Beijing).

Abstract: Unreliable electricity infrastructure imposes substantial costs on firms, prompting private investment in distributed generation. We study this transition in South Africa, where widespread blackouts coincided with rapid rooftop solar expansion. Combining solar registration records, load-shedding schedules, and spatial tax data, we show that severe outages induce persistent solar adoption, particularly in areas with greater solar potential. Using an instrumental variables strategy exploiting national load-shedding and local solar suitability, we find that solar adoption improves firm survival and resilience to subsequent outages. However, solar adoption also reduces grid electricity purchases, undermining municipal revenues that finance public services. We develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model incorporating endogenous grid reliability, firm generation choices, and municipal fiscal dependence on electricity sales. Our findings highlight a fundamental trade-off: distributed solar enables private adaptation to unreliable infrastructure while potentially weakening the financing of public provision.

Draft Available upon Request.

Funding: PEDL Research Seed Grant (£5,000), PEDL Exploratory Research Grant (£14,000).

Selected Presentations: "Building for the Future: The Economics of Infrastructure and Sustainable Development" Workshop (UCLouvain), 7th KDI-World Bank DECDI Development Impact Conference (Seoul), 8th World Bank-ODI-IFS Public Finance Conference (Washington), PEDL Climate and Environment Mini-Conference (LSE).