Abstract: This paper studies mineral export restrictions as an instrument of industrial policy. I develop a general equilibrium model in which export restrictions lower domestic mineral prices and implicitly subsidize downstream manufacturing. Welfare gains, however, require the activation of scale externalities in downstream sectors, except when the restricting country has substantial market power in mineral markets. Using a novel global dataset of mineral export restrictions combined with product-level upstream-downstream linkages, I show that this condition is largely unmet. While downstream exports rise in both value and quantity following restrictions, these gains dissipate rapidly along the value chain and are confined to basic metal products, the immediate downstream sector. There is no significant export-stimulating effect for technologically complex goods or products that rely on extensive complementary inputs. Overall, mineral export restrictions can generate sector-specific downstream gains but are insufficient to induce the broad-based industrial upgrading that many developing country governments envision.

[SSRN Working Paper (March 2026)]

Selected Presentations: ETSG 2025 Conference (Milan), AEA 2026 Annual Meeting (Philadelphia), 18th FIW Research Conference (Vienna), Junior Applied Economics Seminar (LSE), CSAE 2026 Annual Conference* (Oxford), Midwest Trade Conference* (Ohio State), 10th CCER Summer Institute* (Beijing).

Abstract: While trade liberalization fueled China's spectacular economic growth, it simultaneously induced a relative decline in another China: regions lying outside the manufacturing core. Exploiting the sharp reduction in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in U.S. markets following China's WTO accession, I find a stark spatial divergence. Benefits accrued exclusively to core counties with high initial industrial capacity. In the periphery, however, greater trade exposure led to a relative decline in manufacturing activity and uneven structural change. While the core diversified its industrial base, periphery counties failed to absorb labor released from agriculture and instead experienced industrial downgrading. I rationalize these patterns using a heterogeneous-firm spatial general equilibrium model, in which the shape parameter of local productivity distributions governs regional responses to trade shocks. The model shows that a uniform trade liberalization can generate divergent outcomes across space, as internal migration amplifies the initial productivity advantage of industrialized regions, reinforcing manufacturing concentration.

Draft available upon request.

Selected Presentations: RES 2024 PhD Conference (Portsmouth), The Economics and Politics of Inequality in China Conference (Manchester), UEA 2026 European Meeting* (Barcelona).