Working papers

Abstract: We estimate the effects of California’s cap-and-trade program (CCTP) on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of California’s manufacturing, waste, and electricity-generation (EG) sectors 8 years after the programme has taken effect. We also estimate its effects on California’s relative change in carbon intensity of its thermal EG plants and renewable-energy’s share of total electricity generated. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we are unable to identify a reduction of GHG emissions of California’s affected manufacturing plants relative to the closely matched control group of facilities in other states, although we do find a 12.5% abatement effect on California’s waste sector. In addition, we estimate higher CO₂ emissions and carbon-intensity of its EG sector relative to that of the control group of states. Contrary to theory predictions, our evidence suggests that the first 8 years of the CCTP were largely ineffective in delivering a simultaneously low-cost and accelerating path to industrial net zero. Therefore, while alternatives exist and changes to the scheme might yield results in the future, the CCTP does not offer a convincing blueprint for industrial net zero policies thus far.

Under review at Energy Economics

Supplementary material (data and code) here

Abstract: We combine roll-call votes on climate policies by individual Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) with unique data on their individual observables such as age, gender, ideology, and country of origin, to understand the determinants of environmental legislation in the European Union. Links between age, gender, ideology within and across countries in the EU have, until now, been primarily explored using survey data. This is the first direct observational study of MEP climate reform votes covering the entire 9th legislative term between July 2019 and June 2024, as well as a part of the 10th session up to April 2025. We find that younger MEPs show stronger support for climate action within ideologies, offering political representation to a growing concern among young voters. We also confirm earlier findings that MEPs are divided on climate policies primarily along ideology, but not necessarily gender. From a policy perspective, this highlights the need to bridge both ideological and generational divides among key legislators to advance climate action in the European Parliament. 

Under review at Ecological Economics 

Supplementary data and code here

Abstract: I discuss politically optimal restrictions on citizen movement in a pandemic. To find the political equilibrium, a standard voter preference framework is extended with features of a society where citizens make choices under pandemic conditions. Specifically, their vaccine choice is endogenous and they are vaccine-hesitant, they do not readily comply with restrictions, lockdowns tax their available time for work and leisure, and access to vaccines is unequal. Citizens also vote for their preferred level of restrictions. In a median-voter equilibrium, the majority will choose zero restrictions, unless the government offers some positive income support, or a subsidy, which depends on the severity of restrictions. Voters will tolerate harder restrictions when the subsidy grows. The minimum subsidy and additional conditions for existence of a majority support for non-zero restrictions are discussed. Large-scale evidence using Google's citizen mobility data from the COVID-19 pandemic supports the theory. A set of policy implications completes the analysis, which could help governments build political support for their planned containment measures in future pandemics.

Supplementary material (+ replication package) here.

Under review at the European Journal of Political Economy

Abstract: COVID-19 preceded electoral upsets in many countries, but did it cause them? Using both OLS and instrumental variable methods on granular electoral data we find that, in the case of Brazil, (i) both COVID-19 mortality and underlying cases played a significant role in reducing the incumbent candidate’s votes, and (ii) the effect was stronger in more closely contested municipalities. However, COVID-19 lost its relative importance at higher levels of contestability to factors such as municipal-level economic growth, electoral mobilisation, inequality, as well as education and employment structure. As a result, while a typical voter at the national level may have been more interested in the healthcare costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, their electoral focus shifted to the economy in more closely contested municipalities. This is a novel result on the electability of incumbent populists, informing changing perceptions of political competence at varying levels of contestability. This result helps explain re-election strategies of incumbent populists who tend to downplay failures in managing the COVID-19 healthcare crisis and emphasise the state of the economy. Our results imply that populists can indeed boost their re-election chances if they exploit this political trade-off.  

Accepted, forthcoming at Comparative Economic Studies

Supplementary material: https://data.mendeley.com/preview/d2txz5r4x9/3