20th October

1|Introduction to Probabilistic design - Asunción Baquerizo – University of Granada

9h00-13h00 (Coffee break 11h)

-          Definitions

-          Formulation of the problem: verification of failure modes/operational
stoppages

-          Quasi-probabilistic vs. fully probabilistic verification methods

13h00-14h30 Lunch

2|Verification Methods - Asunción Baquerizo – University of Granada

14h30-17h (Coffee break 17h00)

-          Level II methods
  ◦ Gaussian verification equations
  ◦ Non-Gaussian verification equations

-          Level III methods
  ◦ Sample size considerations
  ◦ Verification of failure modes associated with ultimate and operational limit states
  ◦ Verification of serviceability limit states and operational limit states

21st October

9h00-13h00 (Coffee break 11h)

-          MarineTools: Non-stationary and multivariate climate
characterization and simulation

13h00-14h30 Lunch

3| Statistical Modelling of Environmental Conditions – Jared Cantos – GeoOcean, University of Cantabria

14h30-17h (Coffee break 17h00)

-          BlueMath [Why-How-What?]

o    Data science and climate in coastal and hydraulic engineering.

o    BlueMath-Hub: A cloud-based, open-source, Python framework with interactive notebooks for statistical analysis and simulation of coastal climate hazards in a changing climate.

o    GitHub & Codespaces

-          Environmental data

o    Preliminary concepts

o    Databases

-          Functions and statistical analysis

o    Climate variability; Extreme value distributions; Multivariate extreme values

o    Testing and case study

22nd October

9h00-13h00 (Coffee break 11h)

-          Climate-based emulator: theory + practical study case 

-          Return period vs. Failure probability: theory + practical case study 

13h00-14h30 Lunch

23rd October

4|Probabilistic design of coastal structures – Javier Lara – IH Cantabria

9h00-13h00 (Coffee break 11h)

-          Theoretical Foundations for Probabilistic Design of Coastal Structures

o   Introduction to Probabilistic Analysis and Fault Trees for Coastal Infrastructures

o   Overview of National and European Norms and Recommendations for Probabilistic Design

o   Characterization of Failure Modes in Coastal Infrastructures for Probabilistic Design and Application of Verification Methods

-          Methodological Development for Probabilistic Design of Coastal

o   Infrastructures Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods for Series Generation

-          Practical Case Study: Level III Verification of a Maritime Infrastructure

13h00-14h30 Lunch

14h30-17h (Coffee break 17h00)

-          Practical Case Study: Level III Verification of a Maritime Infrastructure (cont.)

-          Optimization of Coastal Infrastructures

-          Probabilistic Methods for Risk Characterization of Coastal Structures

-          Short introduction for adaptation of Infrastructures under Climate Change