Democrat dismay

by: Caitlin, Shepherd, and max

Caitlin: I think it's fair to say that many news outlets overestimated Biden's ability to win, with FiveThirtyEight predicting a 89% chance of winning for the Democratic party. This shocking estimate is nothing compared to what we witnessed this last week, seeing Trump and Biden staying pretty much level in most of the swing states.

Shepherd: I totally agree, Caitlin. I saw that a CNN poll had Trump down 12 percentage points nationally going into election week. This is a staggering compared to the 3.3 percent that we actually saw. This is simply unacceptable. A mainstream news outlet being this wrong really brings into question how much faith we should place into polls in the future. Could the polls only be this wrong because of Trump being in them? Does he just mess up the polling system or is the system in general severely flawed?

Max: Yeah Shepherd, I think as a whole this country and specifically pollsters are coming to terms with the fact that this political climate is completely contradictory to the “rules” that have been in place for generations. 2016 provided a kind of wakeup call in the eyes of the American public that culturally we are in a very different place than what pundits have indicated. In the eyes of polls specifically, the broad overestimation generally comes down to the fact that polling itself is inherently an imperfect method. 2016 provided an opportunity for polling to be refined and yet, polling remains dramatically separate from the true beliefs of those that feel their political views contrast with what those on the other end of the phone line want to hear. The polarized political climate that we are living in makes being honest about one’s political choice have a lot of baggage and people are aware of this. Aside from just polls and unpredictable voting behavior, what do you think is central as to why Democrats seem to have close results in swing states that they are projected to win decisively?

Caitlin: Well, when you take into account how polarized this nation has become, I think it's fair to say that Democrats underperformed due to the fact that there is a significant number of Americans who can be considered secret Trump supporters. According to The Times this election was the first time since 1946 that so few chambers changed hands. With the Democrats expecting a blue wave, ignoring the demographic of the silent Trump supporter, the Democrats faced a huge let down in many facets of the election.

Shepherd: For sure Caitlin. The Democrats really underperformed. Even if the polls were not so wrong, Max, the Democrats still did not accomplish nearly as much as what they were hoping for. They lost many seats in the House, the Senate is most likely still going to remain red, and Joe barely squeaked out a Presidential victory, which is still being contested. With the lack of Democratic momentum created on election night and the general trend of the incumbent party doing worse on midterm elections, the Republicans are really looking strong for the midterm election cycle. What do you think Max?

Max: I think it is evident that in this country we are amidst a virtually unprecedented political crossroads. Given the nature of Trump’s political authority being largely rooted in the preservation of an ideal that has failed to fully mobilize his support to the same extent as it did in 2016, American voters are simply pulled in two directions. I believe that moderate republicans who are rooted in the communities in which they come from provide a refreshing and more grounded defense of the “American” ideals that many suburban and rural white voters hold dearly. That being said, people settle for Trump much like the Democratic masses settled for Biden. Both leaders are distinctively imperfect, and for many are means to a more Democratic or Republican future respectively. I don’t think it is necessarily that Democrats underperformed as much as it is that people feel like the prospect of Democratic leadership is even more distant from their values than the polarizing leadership of the current president.