Research

A new monetary policy conditions index (MCI) that integrates conventional and unconventional monetary policy tools into a single metric. Unlike the shadow rate, it captures the effects of balance sheet policies even away from the effective lower bound. 

Paper: BIS Working Paper; 📈MCI data; Short article: SUERF Policy Brief

Micro-level evidence on the valuation effects of exchange rate swings on firms' cash flows, arising from dominant currency pricing. The invoicing-weighted FX index--NICER--predicts firm financial performance better than trade-weighted one. 

Paper: BIS Working Paper, PIER; Short article: SUERF Policy Brief

A practical guide on how to implment LLM in typical economic and social science applications. We lay out the steps and illustrate the workflow with a concrete example of analysing stock market drivers. 

Paper: BIS Quarterly Review; 💻 Code; Glossary of technical terms.

What are macroeconomic gains and risks associated with CBDC? How should the central bank utilise this new policy tool? We explore these issues in a medium-sized general equilibrium model in an open-economy context. 

Paper: BIS Working Paper, CEPR, PIER; Short article: SUERF Policy Brief, VoxEU article.

How will the global economy emerge from the pandemic? We introduce a framework that distinguishes between industry- and country-specific drivers of labour productivity, and, through these sectoral lens, examine growth scenarios for the coming decades.  

Paper: BIS Quarterly Review; Podcasts: Apple, Spotify, BIS.

A model of endogenous belief-driven r-star. Incompletely informed central bank and private agents learn about r-star by observing each other's action. A 'hall-of-mirrors' effect arises when each agent does not realise that its action influences the other's belief and contaminates its own learning. 

Paper: BIS Working Paper, FEDS Working Paper; Video presentation: ASSA 2022; Press coverage: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Handelsblatt (German), Donald Kohn's op-ed, the Hutchins Roundup.

An interim assessment of macroeconomic costs from the Covid-19 pandemic. Output losses in 2020 and 2021 estimated at 6.5% and 4% respectively for the median case, but there are large cross-country variations. Paper discusses why and draws new lessons for the economics of pandemic.

Paper: BIS Working Paper; Publication: Pacific Economic Review, vol 26, issue 4. Lead article, top cited in 2021-2022.

A flexible epidemiological-economic model for forecasting health and mobility outcomes during the 'pandexit'. Scenarios of vaccination pace, infection surge and virus mutations are considered as examples, many more are possible. Use all open-source data, highly portable.

Paper: BIS Working Paper; 💻 Code in Python; Video presentation: Seminar at the National Bank of Romania.

A DSGE model featuring credit creation giving rise to gross capital flows. The framework exposes pitfalls of relying on current account (net flows) as a measure of vulnerability, and lends new perspectives to classic issues such as global saving glut.

Paper: BIS Working Paper; Press coverage: The Economist; Short article: Bank Underground.

A model of real interest rate determination where financial factors play a key role. How the central bank conducts policy shapes the financial cycle, which matters for long-run outcomes such as output and real interest rates. 

Paper: BIS Working Paper [Updated version 2025]; Short article: SUERF policy note, VoxEU article.

An empirical analysis of how central bank reaction function affects the financial cycle. It's not just about the level of interest rate - the degree of policy reactiveness matters too. 

Paper: BIS Working Paper; Publication: Journal of Banking and Finance, vol 142, September 2022, 106536.

Short-term market rates have been less responsive to news in the post-crisis period. ZLB is part of the answer, but a greater use of forward guidance may be responsible too.  

Paper: BIS Quarterly Review. 

A critical take on the causes of global real interest rate decline. We argue one must also re-examine the role of monetary policy itself.​ 

Paper: BIS Working Paper; Video presentation: The 62nd Boston Fed Economic Conference.

Monetary policy is caught between unresponsive inflation and more disruptive financial cycle. Giving the first undivided attention could exacerbate the latter.  

Paper: BIS Working Paper; Publication: 21st Central Bank of Chile Annual Conference Proceeding, 2018.

Using data since 1870 from 19 advanced economies, we document a lack of systematic relationships between real interest rates and the the real saving-investment determinants as assumed in theory.   

Paper: BIS Working Paper; Publication: International Journal of Central Banking, September 2022; Short article: VoxEU.

A simple analytical framework to illustrate sufficient conditions for leaning against the wind: (i) there is an endogenous boom-bust financial cycle, (2) monetary policy can temper the boom, (3) but it cannot fully offset the bust.    

Paper: BIS Working Paper.

Much of global bond yield correlation is due to common movement in domestic monetary policy. Stripping this away, the "contagion" factor driving term premium correlation is more important for advanced economies.  

Paper: BIS Working Paper; Publication: Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 74, June 2017.

Temptation to expand market shares makes it harder for banks to coordinate on screening out bad borrowers. A lower risk-free rate exacerbates this coordination problem, opening up the possibility of a credit boom.  

Paper: BIS Working Paper.

Asian financial market sensitivities to core countries are pro-cyclical, tending to be high in stress period such as t he GFC. Good domestic policy helps insulate Asian economies to a degree, but not completely.

Paper: IMF Working Paper.

Financial integration helps countries share risks, but also exposes them to greater spillovers and contagion. An asset pricing model is used to  compute the terms of this trade-off.  

Paper: IMF Working Paper. 

Using household survey data, I estimate the wealth elasticity of consumption in Thailand to be about 0.06 (income elasticity is 0.6). Wealth in physical assets has a five-fold larger effect on consumption than wealth in financial assets.  

Paper: Bank of Thailand Discussion Paper.

Market-based measures of systemic risk in the Thai banking system, based on the conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR). These are coorrelated with loan book sizes, liquidity buffers, as well as interbank currency swaps positions.   

Paper: Bank of Thailand Discussion Paper.

We study a canominal macro model augmented by a bank-lending channel, and a stylised model of endogenous bust following a leverage boom due to a VaR constraint. Macroprudential policies help in both, but for different reasons.     

Paper: Bank of Thailand Discussion Paper.

Endogenous cycle arises in a repeated coordination game. When overall investment is high, agents upgrade beliefs about fundamentals which further reinforce investment. The economy perpetually cycles between active and inactive states.          

Paper: DPhil dissertation chapter.