Policy

How do higher tariffs affect the global economy and through what channels? What are the likely magnitudes of growth and inflation consequences? What are the attendant risks? 

BIS Bulletin no 110; Appendix: Trade model review.

What account for cross-country differences in productivity after the pandemic? Could the recent divergence between US and other economies persist? What roles can macroeconomic policy play to promote productivity growth, including that of fiscal and monetary policy?  

BIS Bulletin no 93.

What lessons do the gilt market disruptions in September 2022 have for other pension fund systems and NBFIs? 

Box from BIS Quarterly Review, Overview; Press coverage: Financial Times.

Shifting buyer composition in MBS markets highlights risks of market dysfunction. 

Box from BIS Quarterly Review, Overview, Press coverage: Financial Times.

A critical essay on central banks' quest to safeguard financial stability in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis. Despite its many virtues, I argue macroprudential policy has not absolved monetary policy of its financial stability duties. 

Chapter in "Central Banks and Supervisory Architecture in Europe", Robert Holzmann and Fernando Restoy (editors).

Why have global bottlenecks been so persistent? We look back on the causes, provide an update on the situation and ask what may lie ahead. A continued easing of global supply chain disruptions holds the key for inflation to stabilise sustainably. 

BIS Bulletin no 61.

House prices surged through the pandemic recession. What's different this time? Would this uptrend continue even as central banks tighten monetary policy? We examine these questions and assess their macroeconomic risks.  

BIS Bulletin no 50; Press coverage: Financial Times.

Global bottleneck is a perfect storm of pandemic supply disruptions, large shifts in demand composition, lean global production network, and suppliers' attempt to simultaneously stock up ('bull-whip' effects). Some factors are longer-lasting than others, with important macroeconomic implications.

BIS Bulletin no 48; Press coverage: Financial Times [1], Financial Times [2], Financial Times [3], Bloomberg, The New Yorker, Paul Krugman's Op-ed, Christine Lagarde's speech.

Facing the difficult tradeoff between lives and livelihood, how do policymakers strike a balance? Can lockdown policies be justified on social welfare grounds? We take a closer look.

BIS Bulletin no 19.

An early literature review in the first few months of the pandemic. It reviews early discussion, highlighting similarities and differences with previous pandemics.  

BIS Bulletin no 7.

External factors are changing monetary policy transmission, exposing limits to domestically-focused policy framework.  

BIS Papers no 83.

A simple quantitative model is used to simulate potential growth forecast and conduct growth diagnostics for Cambodia. Part of analytical inputs into the Article IV mission. 

IMF Working Paper WP/12/96; Published as chapter in book "Cambodia: Entering a new phase of growth" 2014, Olaf Unteroberdoerster (editor).

A strategic roadmap for developing the interbank market while promoting dedollarisation in Cambodia. Part of analysis for the Article IV mission. 

Published as chapter in book "Cambodia: Entering a new phase of growth" 2014, Olaf Unteroberdoerster (editor).