Macroeconomic impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty, Aug 2025, with Emanuel Kohlscheen, Dora Xia and Fabrizio Zampolli, BIS Bulletin (PDF)
Integrating balance sheet policy into monetary policy conditions, July 2025, with Benoit Mojon and Dora Xia, BIS Working Paper (PDF, 📈MCI data, SUERF Policy Brief)
Exchange rate effects on firm performance: a NICER approach, May 2025, with Nuwat Nookhwun and Jettawat Pattararangrong, BIS Working Paper (PDF, SUERF Policy Brief)
Monetary policy hysteresis and the financial cycle, Revised version Jan 2025, with Claudio Borio and Piti Disyatat, BIS Working Paper (PDF)
Large language models: a primer for economists, Dec 2024, with Byeungchun Kwon, Taejin Park and Fernando Perez-Cruz, BIS Quarterly Review (PDF, Code, Glossary)
Productivity in the post-pandemic world: old trend or new path?, Oct 2024, with Deniz Igan and Tom Rosewall, BIS Bulletin (PDF)
Guiding star? The natural rate of interest and monetary policy, June 2024, Keynote speech, Annual Czech National Bank Workshop
I'm a Principal Economist at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), where I have been since 2014. My works are rooted in monetary policy, with a current focus on its broad reach through the financial cycle, the link with natural interest rate, and external stability. You can find my research featured in the BIS flagship publications and academic journals. I am also interested in broad macroeconomic issues and regularly author analytical policy notes for central bank governors who convene in Basel every two months.
I spent much of my non-BIS career as a policymaker at the Bank of Thailand. Most recently, I served as Director of Monetary Policy between 2023-2024, leading teams of economists tasked with counselling the Monetary Policy Committee on interest rate and exchange rate policies. My earlier central banking experiences spanned monetary policy strategy, macroeconomic modelling, forecasting, and reserve management. I also spent a couple of years at the IMF in Asia & Pacific Department, contributing to the Fund research and taking part in Article IV missions in Asia.
I obtained my DPhil and MPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford, and a BSc in Economics with Statistics (1st) from the University of Bristol.
Bank for International Settlements
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Ch 4002, Basel, Switzerland
phurichai.rungcharoenkitkul @ bis.org