Embedded Files
Working Paper
“How Far Does a Climate Shock Travel? Effect of the Panama Canal Disruption on US West Coast Maritime Traffic and Air Pollution” [Job Market Paper] [Previously titled "Navigating the Ripple Effect: Unveiling the Hidden Currents of El Niño, the Panama Canal, and US West Coast Ports"]
Climate-induced disruptions in global trade routes have significant economic and environmental consequences. I establish the causal effect of a climate-induced disruption at a critical chokepoint on distant local air quality using a chained 2SLS model. Using the 2023 El Niño-induced drought at the Panama Canal as a natural experiment, I show that the resulting congestion increased maritime traffic at major US West Coast ports. Furthermore, using the estimated Panama Canal traffic as an instrument for West Coast port traffic, I find increased port traffic led to a significant degradation of local air quality. Especially, tankers have a greater marginal pollution impact than cargo vessels, increasing daily particulate matter (PM) concentrations by up to 43.7%. My findings illustrate how localized climatic shocks can propagate through global shipping networks, creating significant environmental externalities in distant locations and highlighting a novel form of network-transmitted vulnerability.
“Clearing the Air: The Complex Relationship Between Truck Emissions, NOₓ Reductions, and Ozone Formation in Bogotá ”
This study examines the impact of heavy-duty truck activity on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations in Bogotá, Colombia, leveraging the 2016 truck riot as a natural experiment that exogenously reduced truck traffic. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DD) approach with hourly-level data aligned across years by calendar characteristics, the analysis reveals that the riot led to statistically significant reductions in NOx concentrations but resulted in significant increases in O3. For instance, the 2016 riot reduced daily average NOx by approximately 32.7%, while O3 levels increased by about 54.3%. An event study model further details these dynamics by weeks, showing an immediate NOx drop and O3 increase that persisted for several weeks, with later-stage fluctuations potentially indicating behavioral adjustments by other road users. These inverse outcomes for NOx and O3 provide strong empirical evidence that Bogotá operated under a VOC-limited regime during the 2016 truck riot. This finding suggests that policies focused solely on reducing truck-related NOx emissions may be insufficient or even counterproductive for controlling O3 pollution in Bogotá, underscoring the need for integrated air quality management strategies.
“China's Green Paradox: Electric Vehicle Dreams versus Coal Realities”
This study examines China's ambitious transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in relation to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, assessing its efficacy in reducing emissions given the nation’s energy infrastructure. Analyzing longitudinal data from 1960 to 2023 the research integrates a well-to-wheels emissions perspective with macroeconomic developments, technological innovations, and shifts in energy composition. Results show that China's coal-intensive electricity grid significantly undermines the short-term environmental advantages of EV adoption. However, over the long term, EV adoption demonstrates a modest yet statistically significant reduction in $CO_2$, $NO_x$, and $GHG$ emissions, especially as natural gas and renewables become more integrated into the power grid.
“Locked Out: Land Use Transitions and Demographics Dynamics”
Upzoning is increasingly cited as a supply-side instrument to combat the housing affordability crisis. However, some are concerned that upzoning is a part of a thinly veiled agenda for gentrification (Rodríguez-Pose and Storper, 2020). This paper investigates this tension in Southern California using novel longitudinal zoning data. We first employ emerging hotspot analysis to demonstrate the spatio-temporal trend of residential upzoning in Southern California over the last decade, finding that they cluster near popular migration destinations. We then use fixed-effects models and an instrumental variable approach to quantify the impacts of upzoning on populations. Our results show that upzoning did not increase total population. Instead, cities with more upzoning experienced significant increases in young college graduates and decreases in the non-white population. These demographic shifts coincided with the development of new multi-family housing. As such, upzoning has not increased affordable housing supply, but has instead accommodated local gentrification trends.
Work in Progress
"Effects of Phasing Out Nuclear Power: Evidence from South Korea"
"Health Implications of Maritime Transportation and Port Congestion at Gulf Coast"
Publication
Lee, P. S. & Lee, C. M. (2022), “Are South Korean College Students Benefitting from Digital Learning,” International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction. (https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2022.2047319)
Lee, P. S. (2015), “Bayesian Model to Minimize the Loss from Loan Default,” BS Thesis, Duke University.
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