Research
Journal Publications
Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest, with M. Bondar, S. Chen, M. Chivakul, and D. Igan, Review of Finance, Forthcoming, [IMF working paper]
Parameterizing Debt Maturity, with C. Johns, Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, Forthcoming, [IMF working paper] [replication files]
Long COVID? Prospects for Economic Scarring from the Pandemic, with S. Das, G. Magistretti, E. Pugacheva, and P. Wingender, Contemporary Economic Policy, November 2022 [IMF working paper]
Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports, with M. Appendino, J. de Leon Miranda, and K. Nguyen, Journal of Development Economics, Volume 158, September 2022 [IMF working paper][replication files]
The fiscal cost of conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005–2017, World Development, Volume 157, September 2022 [IMF working paper]
Why are countries’ asset portfolios exposed to nominal exchange rates?, with J. Adams, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 110, February 2021, 102277 [IMF working paper]
Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?, with D. Aikman, S. Kapadia, M. King, J. Proudman, T. Taylor, I. de Weymarn, and T. Yates, December 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369.1956 (2011): 4798-4817.
Working Papers
The Dynamic Effects of Local Labor Market Shocks on Small Firms in The United States, with S. Chen, L. Lin, and A. Weber, March 2024, IMF WP 2024/063
Shocks to Inflation Expectations, with J. Adams, April 2022, IMF WP 2022/072, [latest version] [replication files] Revise & Resubmit, Review of Economic Dynamics
The Economic Consequences of Social Unrest: Evidence from Initial Public Offerings, with J. Boulton and T. Nixon, November 2023, IMF WP 2023/232
Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts, with J. Adams, September 2023, IMF WP 2023/208
Reported Social Unrest Index: August 2023 Update, with E. Bae, August 2023, IMF WP 2023/168
Reported Social Unrest Index: March 2022 Update, May 2022, IMF WP 2022/084
Modeling the U.S. Climate Agenda: Macro-Climate Trade-offs and Considerations, with K. Bergant, J. Chateau, and R. Mano, December 2021, IMF WP 2021/290
Can International Technological Diffusion Substitute for Coordinated Global Policies to Mitigate Climate Change?, IMF WP 2021/173, June 2021, [latest version]
Social Repercussions of Pandemics, with S. Chen, January 2021, IMF WP 2021/021, [latest version] [The Economist] [La Vanguardia] [Reuters] [Project Syndicate]
Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies, April 2018, IMF WP 2018/082 [Forbes] [Fiscal Times]
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are mine alone and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or Management.