Other Work
Other Work
Interest Rates Likely to Return Toward Pre-Pandemic Levels When Inflation is Tamed, IMF Blog, April 2023
How Food and Energy are Driving the Global Inflation Surge, IMF Blog, September 2022
Predicting global unrest, interview with K. Robinson, Saturday Extra, July 2022
Social Unrest is Rising, Adding to Risks for Global Economy, IMF Blog, May 2022
Inflation to be Elevated for Longer on War, Demand, Job Markets, with J. Alvarez, IMF Blog, April 2022
Global Inflation Pressures Broadened on Food and Energy Price Gains, with J. Alvarez, IMF Blog, January 2022
Research and Innovation: Fighting the Pandemic & Boosting Long-Term Growth, interview with B. Cheung, Yahoo Finance, October 2021
Why Basic Science Matters for Economic Growth, with N.-J. Hansen, J.-M. Natal, and D. Noureldin, IMF Blog, October 2021
The Economics of Social Unrest, with S. Chen, Finance and Development, August 2021
How Stock Markets Respond to Social Unrest, with S. Chen, IMF Blog, May 2021
COVID’s Long Shadow: Social Repercussions of Pandemics, with S. Chen and N. Li, IMF Research Perspectives, February 2021
United States: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Staff Report, IMF, July 2024
United States: 2023 Article IV Consultation, Staff Report, IMF, June 2023
The Natural Rate of Interest: Drivers and Implications for Policy, (co-lead author) World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, April 2023
Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 1, October 2022
War Sets Back the Global Recovery, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 1, April 2022
Rising Caseloads, A Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2022
Research and Innovation: Fighting the Pandemic and Boosting Long-Term Growth, (co-lead author) World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October 2021
Managing Divergent Recoveries, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 1, April 2021
Policy Support and Vaccines Expected to Lift Activity, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2021
Mitigating Climate Change, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October 2020
Countering Future Recessions in Advanced Economies: Cyclical Policies in an Era of Low Rates and High Debt, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, April 2020
MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Addressing Fiscal Challenges amid Social Pressures, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2019
Iran: Regional Spillovers (box), Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2019
The Reported Social Unrest Index: A New Measure of Social Unrest in Countries of the Middle East and North Africa (box), Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, April 2019
Caucasus and Central Asia: Unlocking the Region’s Growth Potential, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2018
Conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia: Costs and Economic Policy Priorities (box) Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2018
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Third Review under the ECF, Staff Report, IMF, May 2018
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the ECF, Staff Report, IMF, December 2017
Can Countries Sustain Higher Levels of Public Debt? (box), Fiscal Monitor, April 2017
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are mine alone and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or Management.