Abstract: We study how market structure in Australian residential aged care evolved following reforms that made accommodation prices publicly comparable but did not disclose care quality. Using a panel of metropolitan markets from 2008 to 2019, we compare markets with higher and lower pre-reform competition in a difference-in-differences framework. Markets that were more competitive before the reforms experienced greater consolidation afterwards: a one standard deviation increase in pre-reform competition is associated with 4.7 per cent fewer providers but only 1.8 per cent fewer facilities, indicating that surviving providers came to manage larger portfolios. This consolidation was concentrated in the for-profit sector: for-profit provider counts declined while surviving for-profit incumbents expanded their capacity and diversified into home care. Not-for-profit providers showed no differential response on any margin. These patterns suggest that price transparency without quality disclosure may accelerate consolidation, leaving fewer and larger providers in care markets.

[Draft available upon request] 

Abstract: We use rich administrative data on all manufacturing firms in Vietnam to estimate the causal effects of internal migration on firm performance. Leveraging population census microdata and a shift-share instrument based on international agricultural price shocks, we provide the first evidence on how migration affects quantity-based total factor productivity (TFPQ), as well as other firm outcomes. In the short run, migration reduces marginal costs, prices, and wages, but has no effect on TFPQ, revenue per worker, or capital intensity, and no lasting effects. Adjustment occurs through new firm entry, particularly by small firms in high-productivity sectors observable in our detailed data.

Draft: SSRN

Presented at: the Australasian Development Economics Workshop 2025.

Abstract: Not-for-profit organisations (NFPs) are crucial in supporting local communities, especially during disasters when their services are most needed. Using firm-level administrative data from a significant flood event and employing a difference-in-differences methodology, this study examines the impact of flooding on NFPs.  Findings highlight a significant downturn in operational scale, evidenced by reduced non-capital expenditures and employment by 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Despite these challenges, organisational exit rates remained stable, showcasing the resilience of not-for-profits. Additionally, the research identifies varying effects across different not-for-profit sectors and sizes, with religious organisations, small not-for-profits, and young groups being particularly vulnerable. 

[Draft available upon request]

Presented at: the 13th World Congress of the Econometric Society,  the 2024 Econometric Society Australasia Meeting,  the 2024 Monash Environmental Economics Workshop, the 2024 Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society, the Monash Green Labs Brown Bag Seminar, the 10th Singapore Economic Review Conference, the 4th Australian Workshop on Public Finance.

Abstract: Firms operate in an increasingly volatile environment, where shocks like natural disasters, economic crises, and pandemics challenge their ability to adapt and survive. This paper estimates the impact of COVID-19 mobility restrictions on business performance and examines the factors shaping firm resilience. Using a Difference-in-Differences research design and administrative firm-level data, the study identifies the causal effects of stringent lockdowns on turnover. The findings reveal that lockdowns resulted in an average 4% decline in firm turnover over the post-pandemic period, translating to approximately AUD 26,889 per quarter. Sectors relying heavily on face-to-face interactions, such as hospitality, experienced more significant declines than essential services like healthcare. Firms with multiple locations, larger size, higher productivity, a corporate structure, and longer operational history exhibited greater resilience, with smaller revenue losses and faster recovery. Additional survey evidence highlights the importance of structured management practices, digital adoption, and the characteristics of principal managers, such as their experience and education, in mitigating adverse effects.

 [Draft available upon request]

Presented at: the Asia-Pacific Industrial Organization Conference 2025, the 16th Australasian Public Choice Conference, the 4th PhD Summer Institute in International Trade & Industrial Organisation.

Abstract: Transparency is usually thought to make markets more competitive by helping consumers compare alternatives. We show that in two-sided markets, it can also destabilize competition. Greater comparability makes user demand more responsive and strengthens feedback between the two sides of the market. When these feedback effects are strong enough, transparency can eliminate stable coexistence and cause the market to tip toward a single dominant platform. Once transparency is chosen strategically, platforms may use it not only to intensify price competition, but also to reshape market structure in their favor. Although transparency lowers prices when platforms coexist, it can reduce total surplus if it induces inefficient tipping. Policies that promote comparability may therefore increase competition within a market while making concentration more likely overall.

Draft: SSRN

Abstract: We develop a three-tier model of environmental regulation with a government, a corruptible intermediary, and mobile firms to analyze carbon leakage under asymmetric information. Private information about abatement costs and relocation costs, together with the prospect of relocation, generates a random participation constraint and scope for collusion. We characterize optimal collusion-proof contracts and obtain three results. First, conditional on staying, the optimal abatement rule coincides with the benchmark two-tier solution. Second, deterring intermediary-assisted exit operates through transfers that raise acceptance rents and lower the relocation cutoff, expanding domestic participation. Third, a higher foreign option raises the relocation cutoff and shifts activity abroad; under symmetry this reassigns emissions geographically with no change in the world total, while asymmetric enforcement can raise global emissions. We extend the analysis to two-country competition, where corruption becomes a strategic advantage in attracting mobile industry, and the theory delivers direct policy mappings for carbon pricing, minimum enforcement, border adjustments, and agency design.

Draft: PDF 

Abstract: This paper measures the marginal impact of climate variability on Vietnamese households’ income. We combine survey data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) database with daily climate data from the Climate Prediction Center to estimate the response function of Vietnamese households’ revenues to past climate variability. We focus on the non-linearity of the response and notably on the impacts of extremely warm days. We find that on average an additional day above 33°C is associated with a decrease of the yearly income by 1.3%. This strong effect (13 times higher than an equivalent study in the US case) is not specific to the agricultural sector. It is highest for the lowest deciles of the revenue distribution. Using projection scenarios under the Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5, we find an estimated impact of global warming (without further adaptation) of up to 100% of households’ revenues in 2090 in some regions (Northern region and the Red River Delta area) under RCP8.5. These strong negative impacts are also likely to be specifically concentrated on poor households and to increase revenue inequalities.

Draft: AFD working paper

Press: [The conversation] 

Presented at the GEMMES Viet Nam Seminar Series 2020/2021

Abstract: This chapter evaluates the effects of climate variability on households, individuals, and firms in Viet Nam. First, we examine the impacts of weather shocks on household income using VHLSS 2002–2018. Second, we investigate how labour supply changes with regard to climate change, using the Labour Force Survey 2010–2018. Third, we identify how temperature affects firms’ productivity, revenue, output, and size. Fourth, we evaluate the adaptation of household and individuals, and their perception of climate variability. Fifth, we provide a case study of the Mekong River Delta responding to the severe drought of 2016. Based on the results and four climate scenarios, we provide projections for losses by the end of this century. We find several notable results. First, climate variability would harm household agricultural income (from fruits and non-crop components), especially when the temperature is above 33°C. We also find that weather shocks have negative impacts on poor households in comparison to other groups. Third, we find a negative relationship between climate change and working hours/hourly wage. Fourth, temperature’s increase reduces firms’ revenue, total factor productivity, output, and size. Fifth, our results suggest the non-linear effect of temperature change on employment allocation and migration. Sixth, we find that individuals are aware of extreme weather, but unaware of gradually increasing temperatures. Finally, we find that the 2016 severe drought led to a significant increase in migration rate in Mekong River Delta