Abstract: We use rich administrative data on all manufacturing firms in Vietnam to estimate the causal effects of internal migration on firm performance. Leveraging population census microdata and a shift-share instrument based on international agricultural price shocks, we provide the first evidence on how migration affects quantity-based total factor productivity (TFPQ), as well as other firm outcomes. In the short run, migration reduces marginal costs, prices, and wages, but has no effect on TFPQ, revenue per worker, or capital intensity, and no lasting effects. Adjustment occurs through new firm entry, particularly by small firms in high-productivity sectors observable in our detailed data.

PDF: SSRN

Abstract: Not-for-profit organisations (NFPs) are crucial in supporting local communities, especially during disasters when their services are most needed. Using firm-level administrative data from a significant flood event and employing a difference-in-differences methodology, this study examines the impact of flooding on NFPs.  Findings highlight a significant downturn in operational scale, evidenced by reduced non-capital expenditures and employment by 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Despite these challenges, organisational exit rates remained stable, showcasing the resilience of not-for-profits. Additionally, the research identifies varying effects across different not-for-profit sectors and sizes, with religious organisations, small not-for-profits, and young groups being particularly vulnerable. 

Abstract: Firms operate in an increasingly volatile environment, where shocks like natural disasters, economic crises, and pandemics challenge their ability to adapt and survive. This paper estimates the impact of COVID-19 mobility restrictions on business performance and examines the factors shaping firm resilience. Using a Difference-in-Differences research design and administrative firm-level data, the study identifies the causal effects of stringent lockdowns on turnover. The findings reveal that lockdowns resulted in an average 4% decline in firm turnover over the post-pandemic period, translating to approximately AUD 26,889 per quarter. Sectors relying heavily on face-to-face interactions, such as hospitality, experienced more significant declines than essential services like healthcare. Firms with multiple locations, larger size, higher productivity, a corporate structure, and longer operational history exhibited greater resilience, with smaller revenue losses and faster recovery. Additional survey evidence highlights the importance of structured management practices, digital adoption, and the characteristics of principal managers, such as their experience and education, in mitigating adverse effects.

Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between corruption in the government setting and carbon leakage issue. We build a continuous-type and three-tier agency model to examine what kind of pollution abatement patterns one can implement in the context of asymmetric information. In our setting, an imperfectly inform principal contracts with the bureaucrat and polluting firm. Then, corruption is captured by the possibility of colluding between firm and bureaucrat by signing the side-contract with monetary transfer to making the wrong report about the type of the firm. We also consider the model in which corrupt and non-corrupt regimes interact with each other. We found that corruption only seems to affect the transfer scheme and the proportion of firms relocating from the less corrupt governments to high corrupt regimes. Corruption also leads to more pollution in corrupt countries compared to their peer who does not have corruption, but at the global level, the amount of pollution is constant. We also provide empirical evidence to illustrate our result.

Abstract: This paper measures the marginal impact of climate variability on Vietnamese households’ income. We combine survey data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) database with daily climate data from the Climate Prediction Center to estimate the response function of Vietnamese households’ revenues to past climate variability. We focus on the non-linearity of the response and notably on the impacts of extremely warm days. We find that on average an additional day above 33°C is associated with a decrease of the yearly income by 1.3%. This strong effect (13 times higher than an equivalent study in the US case) is not specific to the agricultural sector. It is highest for the lowest deciles of the revenue distribution. Using projection scenarios under the Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5, we find an estimated impact of global warming (without further adaptation) of up to 100% of households’ revenues in 2090 in some regions (Northern region and the Red River Delta area) under RCP8.5. These strong negative impacts are also likely to be specifically concentrated on poor households and to increase revenue inequalities.

Press: [The conversation] 

Abstract: This chapter evaluates the effects of climate variability on households, individuals, and firms in Viet Nam. First, we examine the impacts of weather shocks on household income using VHLSS 2002–2018. Second, we investigate how labour supply changes with regard to climate change, using the Labour Force Survey 2010–2018. Third, we identify how temperature affects firms’ productivity, revenue, output, and size. Fourth, we evaluate the adaptation of household and individuals, and their perception of climate variability. Fifth, we provide a case study of the Mekong River Delta responding to the severe drought of 2016. Based on the results and four climate scenarios, we provide projections for losses by the end of this century. We find several notable results. First, climate variability would harm household agricultural income (from fruits and non-crop components), especially when the temperature is above 33°C. We also find that weather shocks have negative impacts on poor households in comparison to other groups. Third, we find a negative relationship between climate change and working hours/hourly wage. Fourth, temperature’s increase reduces firms’ revenue, total factor productivity, output, and size. Fifth, our results suggest the non-linear effect of temperature change on employment allocation and migration. Sixth, we find that individuals are aware of extreme weather, but unaware of gradually increasing temperatures. Finally, we find that the 2016 severe drought led to a significant increase in migration rate in Mekong River Delta