Abstract: Governments increasingly rely on choice and competition to deliver aged care. These reforms can make prices transparent while care quality stays undisclosed. Little is known about provider behaviour under such disclosure. Using an administrative panel of 48 Australian metropolitan markets over 2008-2019 and a difference-in-differences design, we examine how residential aged care markets with higher and lower pre-reform competition evolved after accommodation prices became publicly comparable in 2014. A one standard deviation increase in pre-reform competition is associated with 4.7 per cent fewer providers in the post-reform period but only 1.8 per cent fewer facilities, so facilities per provider rose. The decline was concentrated among for-profit providers, while surviving for-profit incumbents expanded capacity and diversified into home care. Not-for-profit providers showed no differential response on any margin. The patterns are consistent with price visibility raising the scale needed to compete: transparency without quality disclosure may consolidate care markets.

Abstract: How do export demand shocks affect firms' product portfolios, and which firms respond by adopting new products? We study these questions using Vietnamese manufacturing firms during the US-China trade war, which generated a positive export demand shock for Vietnamese producers of goods subject to US tariffs on Chinese exports. Combining administrative firm level data with a measure of each firm's latent advantage in products outside its current portfolio, we find that firms are more likely to begin producing tariff-exposed products, and that this response is stronger for firms with greater latent advantage in those products. Our results indicate that latent advantage, in addition to revealed advantage in existing products, determines which firms respond to new export opportunities. These findings have implications for industrial policies that promote the production of goods with high global market potential.

Abstract: Not-for-profit organisations (NFPs) are crucial in supporting local communities, especially during disasters when their services are most needed. Using firm-level administrative data from a significant flood event and employing a difference-in-differences methodology, this study examines the impact of flooding on NFPs.  Findings highlight a significant downturn in operational scale, evidenced by reduced non-capital expenditures and employment by 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Despite these challenges, organisational exit rates remained stable, showcasing the resilience of not-for-profits. Additionally, the research identifies varying effects across different not-for-profit sectors and sizes, with religious organisations, small not-for-profits, and young groups being particularly vulnerable. 

Presented at: the 13th World Congress of the Econometric Society,  the 2024 Econometric Society Australasia Meeting,  the 2024 Monash Environmental Economics Workshop, the 2024 Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society, the Monash Green Labs Brown Bag Seminar, the 10th Singapore Economic Review Conference, the 4th Australian Workshop on Public Finance.

Abstract: Pandemics, natural disasters, and other large disruptions stop firms from operating, yet little is known about how much firms lose, whether the losses fade, or which firms withstand and recover best. Using tax records covering nearly all Australian businesses and a difference-in-differences design, we compare established employing firms in a state under long, repeated lockdowns with firms in states where restrictions were brief. Turnover reduced 5% to 6%, a loss of around AUD 40,000 per firm each quarter, and remained about 6% below the control-state path over the following three years. In contrast, exit did not rise. During the lockdowns, multi-location firms, companies, larger firms, and more productive firms lost less; afterwards, only the location advantage persisted, partly reflecting other characteristics of those firms. The firms that lost the most had the weakest pre-pandemic management practices, while the location advantage aligns with shifting activity across sites.

Presented at: the Asia-Pacific Industrial Organization Conference 2025, the 16th Australasian Public Choice Conference, the 4th PhD Summer Institute in International Trade & Industrial Organisation.

Abstract: We use rich administrative data on all manufacturing firms in Vietnam to estimate the causal effects of internal migration on firm performance. Leveraging population census microdata and a shift-share instrument based on international agricultural price shocks, we provide the first evidence on how migration affects quantity-based total factor productivity (TFPQ), as well as other firm outcomes. In the short run, migration reduces marginal costs, prices, and wages, but has no effect on TFPQ, revenue per worker, or capital intensity, and no lasting effects. Adjustment occurs through new firm entry, particularly by small firms in high-productivity sectors observable in our detailed data.

Presented at: the Australasian Development Economics Workshop 2025.

Abstract: Transparency is usually thought to make markets more competitive by helping consumers compare alternatives. We show that in two-sided markets, it can also destabilize competition. Greater comparability makes user demand more responsive and strengthens feedback between the two sides of the market. When these feedback effects are strong enough, transparency can eliminate stable coexistence and cause the market to tip toward a single dominant platform. Once transparency is chosen strategically, platforms may use it not only to intensify price competition, but also to reshape market structure in their favor. Although transparency lowers prices when platforms coexist, it can reduce total surplus if it induces inefficient tipping. Policies that promote comparability may therefore increase competition within a market while making concentration more likely overall.

Abstract: Carbon leakage is typically attributed to differences in carbon prices or trade exposure. We show that institutional asymmetries can generate pollution-haven forces even when formal abatement rules are identical. We develop a model of environmental regulation with delegated enforcement, corruption, and firm mobility under asymmetric information. When intermediaries can identify relocation-prone firms, deterring intermediary-assisted exit requires raising rents for marginal types, which shifts participation and alters relocation flows. By contrast, conditional on participation, the marginal abatement rule is unaffected in the baseline model with linear costs. Embedding the model in a two-country setting, we show that relocation is environmentally neutral under symmetric institutions, but weaker enforcement abroad attracts firms and increases global emissions. Institutional quality thus emerges as a central determinant of carbon leakage.

Abstract: This paper measures the marginal impact of climate variability on Vietnamese households’ income. We combine survey data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) database with daily climate data from the Climate Prediction Center to estimate the response function of Vietnamese households’ revenues to past climate variability. We focus on the non-linearity of the response and notably on the impacts of extremely warm days. We find that on average an additional day above 33°C is associated with a decrease of the yearly income by 1.3%. This strong effect (13 times higher than an equivalent study in the US case) is not specific to the agricultural sector. It is highest for the lowest deciles of the revenue distribution. Using projection scenarios under the Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5, we find an estimated impact of global warming (without further adaptation) of up to 100% of households’ revenues in 2090 in some regions (Northern region and the Red River Delta area) under RCP8.5. These strong negative impacts are also likely to be specifically concentrated on poor households and to increase revenue inequalities.

Press: [The conversation] 

Presented at the GEMMES Viet Nam Seminar Series 2020/2021

Abstract: This chapter evaluates the effects of climate variability on households, individuals, and firms in Viet Nam. First, we examine the impacts of weather shocks on household income using VHLSS 2002–2018. Second, we investigate how labour supply changes with regard to climate change, using the Labour Force Survey 2010–2018. Third, we identify how temperature affects firms’ productivity, revenue, output, and size. Fourth, we evaluate the adaptation of household and individuals, and their perception of climate variability. Fifth, we provide a case study of the Mekong River Delta responding to the severe drought of 2016. Based on the results and four climate scenarios, we provide projections for losses by the end of this century. We find several notable results. First, climate variability would harm household agricultural income (from fruits and non-crop components), especially when the temperature is above 33°C. We also find that weather shocks have negative impacts on poor households in comparison to other groups. Third, we find a negative relationship between climate change and working hours/hourly wage. Fourth, temperature’s increase reduces firms’ revenue, total factor productivity, output, and size. Fifth, our results suggest the non-linear effect of temperature change on employment allocation and migration. Sixth, we find that individuals are aware of extreme weather, but unaware of gradually increasing temperatures. Finally, we find that the 2016 severe drought led to a significant increase in migration rate in Mekong River Delta