Research Interest
Heterogeneous Households, Expectation Formation, Wealth Inequality, Macro-Public Finance
Working papers
Heterogeneous Diagnostic Expectations and Wealth Inequality over the Business Cycle. (Job Market Paper). Link
Using U.S. microdata, we document heterogeneity in overreaction when households form expectations about their future finances: low-income households overreact more strongly to recent experience. We embed this heterogeneity in a Krusell-Smith economy with diagnostic expectations over future household finances. The model generates a negative relationship between the strength of overreaction and wealth. Favourable experiences triggered by expansions make overreactors too optimistic and reduce their saving; adverse experiences triggered by recessions make them too pessimistic and increase their saving. Because expansions occur more frequently than recessions, stronger overreactors undersave on average and accumulate less wealth over time. The same mechanism makes wealth inequality procyclical, whereas it is countercyclical under rational expectations. A 1% wealth tax with a uniform rebate delivers a smaller consumption-equivalent welfare gain under diagnostic expectations than under rational expectations. Heterogeneity in diagnostic expectations therefore shapes wealth sorting, the cyclicality of wealth inequality, and tax incidence.
Presented at: Vienna Macro Workshop 2026*, EEA-ESEM 2026*, Money Macro Finance PhD Conference 2026, Royal Economic Society 2026, Manchester PhD Seminar 2026, Econometric Society World Congress 2025, NWSSDTP 2026/2025, Manchester PhD Conference 2025, Royal Economic Society PhD Conference 2024.
*scheduled
Awards: Peter Sinclair Prize second place (Money Macro Finance PhD Conference 2026); Conference Travel Grant (Royal Economic Society PhD Conference 2024).
Herding and Contrarianism under Diagnostic Expectations. Link
This paper studies informational herding and contrarian behaviour in a sequential trading model. In the canonical rational expectations model, informed traders continue to act on their private signals, and price adjustment is powerful enough to rule out herding and contrarian behaviour. I show that this conclusion relies on the Bayesian use of public information summarized in prices. When some informed traders form diagnostic expectations, they overweight the asset state that recent public information has made more representative relative to an earlier public history. This overreaction can make public news dominate private information. Diagnostic informed traders may then disregard their private signal and trade with or against the direction favoured by current public beliefs. The mechanism survives even when prices respond to order flow and the market maker accounts for diagnostic traders in pricing. The paper identifies a belief-based channel through which price histories can generate herding and contrarian behaviour in sequential trade.
Presented at: Financial Management Association European Conference 2024; Behavioural Finance Working Group 2024; Scottish Economic Society 2024; Royal Economic Society 2024, Econometric Society European Winter Meeting 2023.
Awards: Conference Travel Grant (Behavioural Finance Working Group 2024); RES Scholar's Fund (Royal Economic Society 2024).
Work in progress
Redistribution without Rational Expectations, with Patrick Macnamara and Raffaele Rossi
Pareto Optimal Reforms, with Patrick Macnamara and Raffaele Rossi