Recent Publication
Lu, Pei-Jyun and Mark Skidmore. Efficacy Analysis of Cloud Seeding Policy in Kansas Agriculture. Climate Risk Management, forthcoming.
Lu, Pei-Jyun and M. Skidmore (2024) Tropical cyclone day-off orders, warnings, and avoidance behavior. The Review of Regional Studies, 54(3), 259-282.
Working Paper
Governance and climate-driven failure of wastewater systems: evidence from Florida
with Maura Allaire, Ricardo Rubio, Arezoo RafieeiNasab, Tomas Hopson, David Yates, and Mari Tye
Abstract: Aging systems, climate change, and inadequate access to wastewater infrastructure pose a harm to public health. In Florida, over two million households rely on onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), such as septic systems. These systems are increasingly vulnerable to changing precipitation patterns. Excessive precipitation can saturate the soil and cause OWTS effluent to rise to the land surface or backup into the home. Nearly 25% of U.S. households rely on OWTS. Despite OWTS prevalence and growing risks, little is known about the governance dimensions of failure and how many communities are at risk. This study examines the governance and precipitation-driven failures of OWTS infrastructure. Florida offers a study location with widespread use of OWTS, frequent and severe precipitation events, and substantial variation in wastewater governance due to highly localized planning responsibilities. Binomial logistic regression models analyze the likelihood of OWTS failure as a function of heavy precipitation spells and governance factors, such as local incorporation status (municipal versus unincorporated areas), county-level planning and inspection authority, and time-varying state-level installation standards. Models are informed by detailed, parcel-level datasets on OWTS failure from 2010-2022 and a statewide inventory of 1.98 million residential OWTS from the Florida Department of Health. We find that failure is more likely in the aftermath of heavy precipitation events and in communities with weaker governance, including unincorporated communities, weak county planning authority, and less stringent requirements for inspection and installation. Failure is also more likely in locations with poorly draining soils, high density of septic systems, and high poverty rates. Understanding drivers of failure can inform improved targeting of policy interventions and investment.
Factors influencing policy termination: Cloud seeding program in Kansas
with Mark Skidmore | first author
Abstract: Hailstorms have caused significant economic losses in the United States, prompting the use of weather modification techniques like cloud seeding to mitigate damage. From 1975 to 2016, Kansas implemented a cloud seeding program for hail suppression and rain augmentation, requiring county governments to opt in and provide financial sponsorship. However, participation declined steadily from 2002 until the program’s suspension in 2016. This study investigates the factors influencing county-level decisions to terminate participation in the cloud seeding program, addressing a gap in disaster risk reduction policy research. Using policy termination theory, we test four hypotheses: fiscal stress, project efficacy, diffusion effects, and political ideology. A Logit model examines county characteristics associated with participation from 2002 to 2013, while a Cox proportional hazards model evaluates factors influencing termination decisions. Results indicate that counties experiencing higher hail damage were more likely to terminate, suggesting that perceived program efficacy influenced exit decisions. Additionally, counties were less likely to terminate if neighboring counties also discontinued the program, highlighting a inverse policy diffusion effect. However, fiscal stress and political ideology did not significantly impact termination decisions. This study contributes to the limited research on policy termination in disaster risk reduction by providing insights into local government decision-making processes. Understanding why counties terminated participation in the cloud seeding program can inform future weather modification policies and broader disaster resilience strategies.
Weather modification programs across the globe.
with Mark Skidmore and Kensuke Molnar-Tanaka
Abstract: The risk of extreme weather across the globe has motivated scientists and policymakers to identify and develop strategies for reducing exposure and impacts. These efforts include the implementation of different types of insurance, development of drought-resistant crops, improved weather forecasting and warming systems, and the use of weather/climate modification technologies. In this paper, we provide a brief history of scientific developments in weather modification and summarize weather modification activities globally. Methods of evaluating the efficacy of weather modification activities are also discussed, including a review of studies evaluating efficacy. The paper concludes with a policy discussion of how weather modification practices play a multifaceted role in addressing meteorological challenges.