Working Paper
Efficacy analysis of cloud seeding policy in Kansas. (Job Market Paper/Runner-up in the M. Jarvin Emerson Student Paper Competition 2024)
with Mark Skidmore | first author
Abstract: Hailstorms pose a significant economic threat globally, leading to substantial economic losses. Cloud seeding has emerged as a promising solution for hail suppression; however, its efficacy remains a subject of controversy. Additionally, there has been limited focus on assessing its effectiveness in preventing hail damage to agriculture. Furthermore, the downwind effect, encompassing potential consequences such as reduced rainfall in downwind areas after seeding in target areas, has received inadequate attention in the context of hail suppression. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of cloud seeding programs in Kansas, a leading state in the production of winter wheat, sorghum, and corn, from 2002 to 2020. The findings reveal that cloud seeding programs lead to a statistically significant decrease in the magnitude of hailstones in the target areas. However, there is a lack of statistically significant evidence supporting that cloud seeding reduces either hail or drought damage to crops. An unintended consequence observed is excess moisture, resulting in flooding damage to crops. Upon delving into specific crops, it is observed that cloud seeding enhances corn productivity in target areas but adversely affects sorghum productivity in downwind areas. The paper concludes with policy implications, highlighting the existence of downwind effects associated with cloud seeding programs and suggesting that implementing compensation mechanisms from target areas to downwind areas could be instrumental in mitigating externalities arising from cloud seeding programs.
Tropical cyclone day-off orders, warnings, and avoidance behavior: Do we need government-mandated orders?
with Mark Skidmore | first author (R&R / Review of Regional Studies)
Abstract: Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons, cause fatalities and significant economic losses annually. Government alarms, warnings, and mandatory orders play a crucial role in facilitating people avoid harm. This paper investigates the extent to which government warnings and mandatory orders influence avoidance behavior. The study compares Taipei and Kaohsiung cities in Taiwan, where the government has the authority to order a mandatory day-off, with Miami-Dade County in Florida, where warnings are issued but without a mandatory order. Avoidance behavior is examined using aggregate transportation time-series data to capture trends during tropical cyclones. Results indicate a significant drop in the number of passenger rides after both alarms/warnings and government-mandated orders. Kaohsiung and Miami-Dade County, sharing similar weather conditions, populations, and rates of public transportation usage, exhibit comparable patterns and magnitudes of avoidance behavior. Government-mandated orders can sometimes incur social costs, such as traffic jams and fatalities during evacuation or economic losses when announcing a day-off in advance, which ultimately proves unnecessary due to a change in the storm's course. Therefore, if there is no significant social benefit to issuing mandatory orders, providing warnings/alarms to enable informed decisions may suffice.