Research

Abstract: The risk of extreme weather across the globe has motivated scientists and policymakers to identify and develop strategies for reducing exposure and impacts. These efforts include the implementation of different types of insurance, development of drought-resistant crops, improved weather forecasting and warming systems, and the use of weather/climate modification technologies. In this paper, we provide a brief history of scientific developments in weather modification and summarize weather modification activities globally. Methods of evaluating the efficacy of weather modification activities are also discussed, including a review of studies evaluating efficacy. The paper concludes with a policy discussion of how weather modification practices play a multifaceted role in addressing meteorological challenges.

Abstract: Hailstorms have caused significant economic losses in the United States, prompting the use of weather modification techniques like cloud seeding to mitigate damage. From 1975 to 2016, Kansas implemented a cloud seeding program for hail suppression and rain augmentation, requiring county governments to opt in and provide financial sponsorship. However, participation declined steadily from 2002 until the program’s suspension in 2016. This study investigates the factors influencing county-level decisions to terminate participation in the cloud seeding program, addressing a gap in disaster risk reduction policy research. Using policy termination theory, we test four hypotheses: fiscal stress, project efficacy, diffusion effects, and political ideology. A Logit model examines county characteristics associated with participation from 2002 to 2013, while a Cox proportional hazards model evaluates factors influencing termination decisions. Results indicate that counties experiencing higher hail damage were more likely to terminate, suggesting that perceived program efficacy influenced exit decisions. Additionally, counties were less likely to terminate if neighboring counties also discontinued the program, highlighting a inverse policy diffusion effect. However, fiscal stress and political ideology did not significantly impact termination decisions. This study contributes to the limited research on policy termination in disaster risk reduction by providing insights into local government decision-making processes. Understanding why counties terminated participation in the cloud seeding program can inform future weather modification policies and broader disaster resilience strategies.

Abstract: Urbanization is rapidly increasing, and by 2050, nearly 70% of the global population will live in cities, creating challenges for urban food supply. Vertical farming, which grows crops in stacked or controlled-environment systems, has emerged as a promising solution to increase yields per unit of land, but the factors influencing its adoption remain unclear. I examine how Japanese firms decide among conventional greenhouses, artificial vertical farms, and hybrid systems using a multinomial logit model. Drawing on data from the Japan Greenhouse Horticulture Association from 2012 to 2021, covering approximately 390 farms, I estimate the effects of energy input, land costs, local climate, electricity prices, and proximity to urban centers on adoption choices. My results show that higher land costs reduce the likelihood of adopting artificial or hybrid vertical farms, while higher energy costs increase adoption probability. Firms with diversified business activities, such as LED companies, are more likely to adopt artificial vertical farming to showcase technology rather than maximize crop production. These findings highlight the trade-offs between land and energy considerations and the influence of business strategy on vertical farming adoption, providing insights for policymakers and investors aiming to promote sustainable urban agriculture.

Abstract:As global climate volatility intensifies, cloud seeding—a primary form of weather modification (WM) technology—has re-emerged as a strategic intervention for disaster risk management and water resource optimization. Beyond traditional rainfall augmentation and hail suppression, the modern application of WM has diversified into haze mitigation, fire containment, and hydropower stabilization. However, the global landscape of WM adoption is characterized by a striking divergence: while emerging economies like Kazakhstan and Ecuador are institutionalizing national trial plan, long-standing pioneers such as Australia have recently decommissioned decades-old programs. To date, scholarly discourse has focused almost exclusively on the physical and meteorological efficacy of these technologies. This research addresses a critical gap in the literature by investigating the socio-political, institutional, and cultural drivers that determine why certain nations persist with WM operations while others abandon them.

This study utilizes an original cross-sectional dataset of 58 countries with documented histories of weather modification (Skidmore et al, 2025). I employed a logit model to evaluate the determinants of program continuation as of 2022, testing several multi-disciplinary hypotheses. First, I examined the role of Institutional Trust and Public Participation. Using the Participatory Democracy Index, I proxied for the influence of grassroots opposition; weather modification often triggers public anxiety regarding “environmental interference,” and higher levels of participatory democracy may allow anti-seeding movements to successfully lobby against program retention. Second, I evaluated State Capacity via the Government Effectiveness Index, representing the administrative ability to manage high-cost technological contracts and monitor the outsourcing of technical expertise—a crucial factor in nations like Mali that act as regional technology exporters. Third, I integrated cultural capital using religious adherence from the World Values Survey. This tests the competing hypotheses of “religious resistance to disturbing Mother Nature” versus “cultural capital as a facilitator for collective technological adoption.”

Fourth, I controlled for economic variables, specifically GDP and agricultural value-added sourced from the World Bank. The inclusion of agricultural intensity is crucial, as many regions justify the high operational costs of cloud seeding through the protection of high-value crops; for instance, the extensive use of weather modification in Argentina is primarily driven by the need to protect premium vineyards from hail damage. Fifth, following the methodology of Lu and Skidmore (2025), I incorporated historical disaster events to evaluate the perceived efficacy and survival of cloud seeding programs. Utilizing the EM-DAT International Disaster Database, I compiled and counted occurrences of hail, drought, and wildfires from 2000 to 2022. This variable tests the “performance pressure” on the technology: if a nation continues to suffer significant disaster-related damages despite having an active program, policymakers may lose confidence in the technology's effectiveness and choose to discontinue the operations. Finally, I accounted for the specific technological modalities employed, such as aircraft, rockets, or ground-based generators. These technical choices often dictate the long-term financial sustainability of a program. For example, Croatia ultimately decided to abandon its cloud seeding program in favor of hail net subsidies—a strategic pivot toward a more cost-effective mitigation tool that avoided the high maintenance and operational overhead of maintaining a specialized fleet of aircraft and radar systems.

The preliminary results provide significant insights into the political economy of weather modification. I found that the purpose of the program is a primary predictor of failure; nations utilizing WM for hail suppression face a significantly higher probability of discontinuation compared to rainfall augmentation, likely due to the high scientific uncertainty of hail mitigation. Furthermore, the use of rocket-based delivery systems—often associated with centralized, state-led military or meteorological structures—significantly increases the probability of program survival, whereas ground-based generators correlate with higher rates of abandonment.

Most crucially, cultural capital emerges as a dominant and robust driver. A one-percentage-point increase in the religious population correlates with a 0.90-percentage-point increase in the probability of continuing WM programs (p < 0.05). This suggests that religious networks may provide the social cohesion and collective trust necessary to sustain high-uncertainty public goods. Interestingly, historical disaster exposure over the past two decades significantly increases the likelihood of program retention (p < 0.10). This indicates that for many nations, the adoption of weather modification is not merely a technocratic choice but a survival strategy in the face of escalating climatic threats.

In conclusion, weather modification policy is shaped by a complex interplay of cultural values and technological path dependency. The sustainability of weather modification programs is determined less by a nation’s economic wealth and more by social capital and operational complexity as drivers of program retention, this study provides a new framework for understanding how nations navigate technological interventions in a changing climate.