Labour Market Flows
With Pietro Garibaldi
In the US almost 3 per cent of employees are absent from their job for reasons other than vacation, but are still technically employed. We argue that firms may find optimal to use temporary replacement workers to fill these vacant positions. We set up a matching model with directed search and double-sided heterogeneity. When a workers is temporarily forced out of the labour market, firms can freely destroy the job, put it in "mothball", or look for a temporary worker to "keep the seat warm". When the latter option is optimal, a market for temporary replacement workers emerges in equilibrium. In a quantitative application to the US labor market, replacement workers represent 2.7 per cent of total employment.
JEL Classification: J22, J40, J15, J60.
Keywords: replacement workers short-duration jobs temporary jobs worker heterogeneity firm heterogeneity employment at will.
Working Paper, 2022
With Andri Chassamboulli, Idriss Fontaine and Ismael Galvez-Iniesta, Revise and Resubmit, Labour Economics
We examine the size of job-finding and job-separation rates for immigrants and natives in France, Spain and the US, for the period between 2003 and 2018. We decompose what part of the observed gap in the rates between the two groups is explained by observables, examining the differences across nationalities of immigrants within each country. We find that most of the gap remains after controlling for many observables such as education, age, sector or occupation. We decompose cyclical fluctuations in the unemployment rate of immigrants and natives into contributions attributable to inflows and outflows to and from employment and inactivity. Most facts on the differences in the relative importance of transition rates between immigrants and natives are not common across the three countries, suggesting that the type of migration matters. Using a VAR model we find that an inflow of foreign workers has a weak and mostly non-signicant effect on the job-finding and job-separation rates of both immigrants and natives.
JEL Classification: J15 J60.
Keywords: Labour market flows, immigration, job-finding rate, job-separation rate, VAR.
R&R, 2023
With Andri Chassamboulli and Idriss Fontaine
We measure the size of gross worker flows between public and private sector and their importance for the dynamics of public employment over the last two decades in the US, UK, France and Spain. Between 10 and 35 percent of all inflows and outflows of the public sector are from and to private employment. These flows only account for 7 to 25 percent of the fluctuations of public employment.
JEL Classification: E24; E32; J21; J45; J60.
Keywords: Worker gross flows; job-to-job flows; public employment.
Published, 2020
With Idriss Fontaine, Ismael Galvez-Iniesta and David Vila-Martin
We measure the size of gross worker flows between public and private sector and their importance for the dynamics of public employment over the last two decades in the US, UK, France and Spain. Between 10 and 35 percent of all inflows and outflows of the public sector are from and to private employment. These flows only account for 7 to 25 percent of the fluctuations of public employment.
JEL Classification: E24; E32; J21; J45; J60.
Keywords: Worker gross flows; job-to-job flows; public employment.
Published, 2020
IZA Journal of Labor Economics
Labour markets transition rates are typically estimated using survey data, which are mainly carried at monthly or quarterly frequency. I argue that rates from surveys at different frequencies are not comparable, even if corrected for time aggregation. I estimate labour market transition rates using monthly and quarterly frequency CPS data. I apply time-aggregation correction to make them comparable. I find notable differences in terms of levels and volatilities. While the continuous time-aggregation correction does not alter the unemployment decomposition using the monthly survey, it does so when using the quarterly survey.
JEL Classification: E24; J60.
Keywords: job-finding rate; job-separation rate; transition rates; time-aggregation correction;unemployment decomposition.
This paper documents a number of facts about worker gross flows in the United Kingdom for the period between 1993 and 2010. Using Labour Force Survey data, I examine the size and cyclicality of the flows and transition probabilities between employment, unemployment and inactivity, from several angles. I examine aggregate conditional transition probabilities, job-to-job flows, employment separations by reason, flows between inactivity and the labour force and flows by education. I decompose contributions of job-finding and job-separation rates to fluctuations in the unemployment rate. Over the past cycle, the job-separation rate has been as relevant as the job-finding rate.
JEL Classification: E24, J60.
Keywords: Worker grossflowsJob-finding rateJob-separation rateTransition probabilities
