Researcher, Banque de France Associate Researcher, Sciences Po - OFCE
I am a Visiting Scholar in the Department of Economics at Stanford University from July 2024 to June 2026
Research interests: Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Household and Firm Heterogeneity, Expectations Formation
Email: paul.hubert@sciencespo.fr paul.hubert@banque-france.fr
[CV] [Ideas RePEc] [Google Scholar]
Conference organization:
» 9 December 2025: Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics held at OFCE in Paris - Program
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Recent publications
» December 2025: Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements, with Michael Ehrmann, European Economic Review
» July 2024: The Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Labor Income: Disentangling the Extensive and Intensive Margins, with Frédérique Savignac, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics
» July 2024: The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Price Bubbles, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance, European Economic Review
» May 2024: Same Actions, Different Effects: The Conditionality of Monetary Policy Instruments, with Christophe Blot, Caroline Bozou and Jérôme Creel, Journal of Monetary Economics
» September 2023: The Distribution of Households' Indebtedness and the Transmission of Monetary Policy, with Fergus Cumming, Review of Economics and Statistics
Working papers
» The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations, with Michael Ehrmann, February 2026 [pdf] [CEPR WP]
» Heterogenous Firm Expectations and Misallocation, with Erwan Gautier and Alaïs Martin-Baillon, December 2025 [pdf] [CEPR WP]
» When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News, with Sylvérie Herbert and Mathias Lé, September 2025 [pdf] [BdF WP] R&R at AEJ: Macro
» The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy, with Rose Portier, December 2025 [pdf] [BdF WP]
» Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance, November 2025 [pdf] [BdF WP]
» Overreaction in Inflation Expectations across Economic Agents: Similar Responses, Different Drivers, with Camille Cornand and Rose Portier, March 2026 [pdf]
» Information Effects and Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasts, April 2025 [pdf]
Work in progress
» Savings Choices in Household Debt Decisions, with Morgane Richard and Frédérique Savignac
» Subjective Uncertainty and Overreaction to News, with Camille Cornand, Rose Portier and Sanjay Singh
» Monetary Policy and Investment Plans, with Erwan Gautier and Alaïs Martin-Baillon
» Forecast Confidence and Forecast Errors, with Rose Portier
» December 2025: Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements, with Michael Ehrmann, European Economic Review
» July 2024: The Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Labor Income: Disentangling the Extensive and Intensive Margins, with Frédérique Savignac, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics
» July 2024: The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Price Bubbles, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance, European Economic Review
» May 2024: Same Actions, Different Effects: The Conditionality of Monetary Policy Instruments, with Christophe Blot, Caroline Bozou and Jérôme Creel, Journal of Monetary Economics
» September 2023: The Distribution of Households' Indebtedness and the Transmission of Monetary Policy, with Fergus Cumming, Review of Economics and Statistics
Working papers
» The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations, with Michael Ehrmann, February 2026 [pdf] [CEPR WP]
» Heterogenous Firm Expectations and Misallocation, with Erwan Gautier and Alaïs Martin-Baillon, December 2025 [pdf] [CEPR WP]
» When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News, with Sylvérie Herbert and Mathias Lé, September 2025 [pdf] [BdF WP] R&R at AEJ: Macro
» The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy, with Rose Portier, December 2025 [pdf] [BdF WP]
» Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance, November 2025 [pdf] [BdF WP]
» Overreaction in Inflation Expectations across Economic Agents: Similar Responses, Different Drivers, with Camille Cornand and Rose Portier, March 2026 [pdf]
» Information Effects and Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasts, April 2025 [pdf]
Work in progress
» Savings Choices in Household Debt Decisions, with Morgane Richard and Frédérique Savignac
» Subjective Uncertainty and Overreaction to News, with Camille Cornand, Rose Portier and Sanjay Singh
» Monetary Policy and Investment Plans, with Erwan Gautier and Alaïs Martin-Baillon
» Forecast Confidence and Forecast Errors, with Rose Portier
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