Fergus Cumming

I am a Senior Research Economist at the Bank of England, where I have worked since 2010. I completed my DPhil in Economics at Nuffield College, Oxford and hold a BSc and MSc from the London School of Economics. My research interests include macroeconomics, monetary policy, household finance and central bank design.

This website is used to disseminate my work publicly. All views are my own.

Personal email: fergusc@gmail.com

CV: [PDF]

Working Papers

Mortgages, Cash-flow Shocks and Local Employment [Paper] [Slides]

Abstract:

This paper quantifies the local impact of monetary policy through the cash-flow channel during the Crisis by combining novel micro datasets with near-universal coverage of UK mortgages and employment. I estimate that a reduction in mortgage payments equivalent to 1% of household income led to around a 5 percentage point increase in employment growth in non-tradable businesses the following year. But the spatial distribution of mortgage and labour market structures resulted in significant heterogeneity of this effect across the country. Taken at face value, the estimates suggest that the overall effect of accommodative monetary policy on total employment growth in 2010 varied by around 1.5 percentage points across regions.

Conference and workshop presentations:

Work in Progress


The Role of Borrowing Constraintsnin the Transmission of Monetary Policy with Paul Hubert

Monetary Policy and Fertility Rates with Lisa Dettling

Macroprudential Policy, Credit Supply Shocks and House Prices with James Cloyne

Globalisation, Employment and Voting Preferences with Paolo Surico and Elias Papaioannou

Local Demand Shocks, Balance Sheet Constraints and Redistribution within Firms with Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter

Does Firm Size Matter for Aggregate Fluctuations?

Should Macroprudential Policymakers have 'Conservative' Preferences?

Published Policy Papers

Mapping the UK Financial System with Oliver Burrows and Katie Low, Bank of England

Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q2, pages 114-129, 2015 [Paper] [Video]

Assessing the Adequacy of CCPs' Default Resources with Joe Noss, Bank of England

Bank of England Financial Stability Paper No. 26, November 2013 [Paper]

Blog Articles

Diffraction through debt: the cash-flow effect of monetary policy, Bank Underground, March 2019

Why the Black Box should become more transparent, Bank Underground, October 2018

Helicopter money: setting the tale straight, Bank Underground, August 2015

How China lost UK GDP in 22 working days, Bank Underground, September 2015