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I am happy to share preliminary content upon request.
Work in Progress
Work in Progress
"Multinational Activity and the Global Minimum Tax".
Abstract: Since 2021, over 130 jurisdictions have committed to a 15% global minimum tax on the profits of large multinational companies. This reform is expected to raise additional tax revenues, but little is known about potential behavioral responses. The rise in corporate tax rates and changes in tax differentials may spur targeted firms to scale down operations or adapt location choices. I examine these effects in a general equilibrium model of multinational production with corporate income taxation. Firms jointly choose production locations and whether to adopt a costly profit shifting technology. These discrete choices shape firms’ responses to taxation and create heterogeneous exposure to the global minimum tax. Preliminary simulations suggest that the reform may lead to significant real adjustments, reducing private income across all countries. However, behavioral responses seem to affect the revenue potential of the reform only marginally. Net welfare effects depend on the relative valuation of private income and government revenues. Further work will expand the quantification to a richer setting and explore additional features of the global minimum tax.
Presentations: CREST Internal Seminar; HEC-CREST PhD Day 2024; EUTax Internal Workshop; 20th Doctorissimes Conference; 23rd GEP / CEPR PhD Conference; 2nd Ghent Conference on International Taxation; 14th PhD Student Conference on International Macroeconomics - University Paris Nanterre; ZEW Public Finance Conference 2025; Workshop on International Economic Networks (WIEN) 2025 ; EUTO-IEB Workshop on the Economics of Taxation 2025; UC Berkeley Trade Lunch; MIT Trade Lunch.
Abstract: Governments frequently implement investment stimulus policies to foster capital accumulation, especially during downturns. While the literature has largely focused on how such policies effectively stimulate investment and output for investing firms, investment subsidies also generate a positive demand shock for the suppliers of subsidized goods. Capital-goods producers may respond by raising prices, thereby partially offsetting the intended user-cost reduction and capturing part of the policy-generated surplus. This paper studies these supply-side responses using the French “suramortissement” (2015–2017), a temporary extra-depreciation scheme targeting industrial equipment. Combining rich administrative and survey data, we document upstream price responses and reassess the effective reduction in the user cost of capital. We then build a model of incidence in a supply chain with imperfect competition, and translate our reduced-form estimates into a lower bound of the share of firm-level surplus accruing to capital producers.
Presentations: CREST PhD Seminar (by Louis); IRLE Visiting Scholars Seminar; 2025 CREST-INSEE Workshop (by Louis); UC Berkeley Public Finance Seminar; LSE Public Economics Seminar (by Louis).
Figure: Effect of the investment stimulus on the domestic price of capital suppliers with above-median profitability.
Peer-Reviewed
Peer-Reviewed
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Teresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Revenue Effects of the Global Minimum Tax Under Pillar Two". Intertax, 2022, vol. 50, n°10, pp. 689-710, link.
Other
Other
Alice Chiocchetti, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Lucas Delbecq, Ninon Moreau-Kastler, Mathieu Parenti, Giulia Varaschin, and Gabriel Zucman. "Taxing Polluters: What is the Impact of a Global Minimum Tax on the Extractive Sector?". Global Solidarity Levies Task Force, 2025, link.
Laurent Bach, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Étienne Fize, Arthur Guillouzouic, Clément Malgouyres, and Paul Dutronc-Postel. "La Baisse des Impôts de Production : Ciblage et Évaluation". Institut des Politiques Publiques, 2025, Report 60, link (French).
Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Francesco Filippucci, Manon Garrouste, Enora Messi, Audrey Rain, and Arne Uhlendorff. "Évaluation du Plan '1 Jeune 1 Solution'". Institut des Politiques Publiques, 2024, Report 51, link (French).
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Revenue Effects of the Global Minimum Tax: Country-by-Country Estimates". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Note 2, link.
Giulia Aliprandi, Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc. "Have European Banks Left Tax Havens? Evidence from Country-by-Country Data". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Research Report 2, link.
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Minimizing the Minimum Tax? The Critical Effect of Substance Carve-Outs". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Note 1, link.
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Collecting the Tax Deficit of Multinational Companies: Simulations for the European Union". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Research Report 1, link.
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