"Multinational Activity and the Global Minimum Tax".
Abstract: Since 2021, over 130 jurisdictions have committed to a 15% global minimum tax on the profits of large multinational companies. This reform is expected to raise additional tax revenues, but little is known about potential behavioral responses. The rise in corporate tax rates and changes in tax differentials may spur targeted firms to scale down operations or adapt location choices. I examine these effects in a general equilibrium model of multinational production with corporate income taxation. Firms jointly choose production locations and whether to adopt a costly profit shifting technology. These discrete choices shape firms’ responses to taxation and create heterogeneous exposure to the global minimum tax. Preliminary simulations suggest that the reform may lead to significant real adjustments, reducing private income across all countries. However, behavioral responses seem to affect the revenue potential of the reform only marginally. Net welfare effects depend on the relative valuation of private income and government revenues. Further work will expand the quantification to a richer setting and explore additional features of the global minimum tax.
Presentations: CREST Internal Seminar; HEC-CREST PhD Day 2024; EUTax Internal Workshop; 20th Doctorissimes Conference; 23rd GEP / CEPR PhD Conference; 2nd Ghent Conference on International Taxation; 14th PhD Student Conference on International Macroeconomics - University Paris Nanterre; ZEW Public Finance Conference 2025; Workshop on International Economic Networks (WIEN) 2025.
"The Incidence of Investment Stimulus Policies: Evidence from a French Industrial Subsidy". With Louis de Lachapelle.
Abstract: Coming soon.
Presentations: CREST PhD Seminar (by Louis).
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Teresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Revenue Effects of the Global Minimum Tax Under Pillar Two". Intertax, 2022, vol. 50, n°10, pp. 689-710, link.
Laurent Bach, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Étienne Fize, Arthur Guillouzouic, Clément Malgouyres, and Paul Dutronc-Postel. "La Baisse des Impôts de Production : Ciblage et Évaluation". Institut des Politiques Publiques, forthcoming policy report (French).
Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Francesco Filippucci, Manon Garrouste, Enora Messi, Audrey Rain, and Arne Uhlendorff. "Évaluation du Plan '1 Jeune 1 Solution'". Institut des Politiques Publiques, 2024, Report 51, link (French).
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Revenue Effects of the Global Minimum Tax: Country-by-Country Estimates". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Note 2, link.
Giulia Aliprandi, Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc. "Have European Banks Left Tax Havens? Evidence from Country-by-Country Data". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Research Report 2, link.
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Minimizing the Minimum Tax? The Critical Effect of Substance Carve-Outs". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Note 1, link.
Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman. "Collecting the Tax Deficit of Multinational Companies: Simulations for the European Union". EU Tax Observatory, 2021, Research Report 1, link.