How can process-tracing methods advance scenario-building in International Relations and Peace and Conflict Studies?
How useful are “paths projections” for the forward-looking analysis of US-EU-China power rivalries?
When and how might US-EU-China conflicts escalate and how can policy-makers mitigate these dynamics? 

Our project, located at LMU Munich and funded by the German Foundation for Peace Research, provides new methodological tools and practical applications to enhance foresight on evolving US-EU-China power rivalries. 

Three Contributions: 

• Methods Development: We develop principles, procedures and practical guidelines for making "paths projections", which harness process-tracing methods to advance future-oriented scenario-building. Path projections offer context-bound, process-focused and politically relevant foresight.  

• Paths Projections of Power Rivalries: We produce paths projections on the (de-)escalation of geopolitical conflict between the US, the EU and China. Our paths projections specify under which conditions and through what pathways (de-)escalation of conflict between the US, the EU and China might occur. We focus on military, geoeconomic, and institutional power rivalries over the redesign of global governance institutions.

• Policy Advice: We provide guidance for policy-makers on how to shape the (non-)materialization of (un-)desired future pathways. Our paths projections identify "breaking points" and avenues for political interventions. To inform our paths projections and to ensure their practical relevance, a workshop will bring together perspectives from academia, think tanks, and the policy-making community.