How can process-tracing methods advance scenario-building in International Relations and Peace and Conflict Studies?
How useful are “paths projections” for the forward-looking analysis of US-EU-China power rivalries?
When and how might US-EU-China conflicts escalate and how can policy-makers mitigate these dynamics? 

Our project, located at LMU Munich and funded by the German Foundation for Peace Research (10/2024-09/2025), continues to provide new methodological tools and practical applications to enhance foresight on evolving US-EU-China power rivalries. 

Three Contributions: 

• Methods Development: We further develop principles, procedures and practical guidelines for making "paths projections", which harness process-tracing methods to advance future-oriented scenario-building. Path projections offer context-bound, process-focused and politically relevant foresight.  

• Paths Projections of Power Rivalries: We produce paths projections on the (de-)escalation of geopolitical conflict between the US, the EU and China. Our paths projections specify under which conditions and through what pathways (de-)escalation of conflict between the US, the EU and China might occur. We focus on military, geoeconomic, technological, and institutional power rivalries over the redesign of global governance institutions.

• Policy Advice: We provide guidance for policy-makers on how to shape the (non-)materialization of (un-)desired future pathways. Our paths projections identify "breaking points" and avenues for political interventions. To inform our paths projections and to ensure their practical relevance, a workshop in June 2025 brought together perspectives from academia, think tanks, and the policy-making community.