Research

Articles, Book Chapters, and Technical Papers

"Can AI help with your personal finances" (With Utsha Saha and Binita Saha), Applied Economics.  Published Version; Draft Version

Abstract: In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a transformative development in artificial intelligence (AI), drawing significant attention from industry and academia. Trained on vast datasets, these sophisticated AI systems exhibit impressive natural language processing and content generation capabilities. This paper explores the potential of LLMs to address key challenges in personal finance, focusing on the United States. We evaluate several leading LLMs, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and Meta’s Llama, to assess their effectiveness in providing accurate financial advice on topics such as mortgages, taxes, loans, and investments. Our findings show that, while these models achieve an average accuracy rate of approximately 70%, they also display notable limitations in certain areas. Specifically, LLMs struggle to provide accurate responses to complex financial queries, with performance varying significantly across different topics. Despite these limitations, the analysis reveals notable improvements in newer versions of these models, highlighting their growing utility for individuals and financial advisors. As these AI systems continue to evolve, their potential for advancing AI-driven applications in personal finance becomes increasingly promising.

"Banking Competition and Business Formation in the U.S. Midwest" (With Parker Jabas), Journal of Financial Economic Policy.  Published Version; Draft Version

Abstract: In the wake of rapid banking consolidations in the United States, concerns have arisen about the accessibility of capital and financial services for new businesses. With fewer and more centralized banking options, the likelihood of these entities securing financing may be compromised. Our research explores the repercussions of this consolidation on entrepreneurial activities in the U.S. Midwest. By examining various metrics of new business applications—from total applications to those indicating payroll intentions—we observe a consistent decline in entrepreneurship as banking consolidations escalate. This trend emphasizes the profound impact of banking consolidations on the viability and growth of individual entrepreneurs and small businesses.

"Distance Learning During COVID-19 School Closures" (With Nattanicha Chairassamee), International Journal of Social Economics.  Published Version; Draft Version

Abstract: We analyze the inequality in accessing distance learning during COVID-19 school closures. We use the Household Pulse Survey, which is an effort by the U.S. government to measure the well-being of American families during the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ a regression analysis to estimate the inequality in accessing distance learning by race and household income. Disadvantaged children from nonwhite and low-income families have much less access to distance learning, including less access to online classes, digital devices, and the internet. Schools are critical providers of the internet and digital devices to children from disadvantaged households. Schools and parents devote more attention to these nonwhite children by spending extra time on their learning activities. 

"The Ripple Effects of Offshoring in the United States: Boosting Local Productivity and Capital Investment" (With Nattanicha Chairassamee a), PloS ONE, 18(4): e0284490.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284490 

Abstract: We investigate the offshoring effect on local productivity, physical and intellectual capital investment at the U.S. county level from 1999 to 2006. By using regression with fixed effects and instrumental variable to account for possible endogeneity, we find that offshoring can increase overall local productivity and capital investment. Through industry linkages, an increase in productivity and capital investment from offshoring enhances those increases in non-offshoring industries. Industries in both MSA (urban) and non-MSA (rural) counties receive benefits of productivity expansion and capital investment from offshoring. The increased capital investment from offshoring could be a channel of local productivity and capital investment expansion. 

"Socioeocnomic Transition in the Appalachia Coal Region: Some Factors of Success" (With Linda Laboa, Mark Partridge, Kelly Paige, Seung-hun Chung, and Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer), World Bank Report.  Link

Abstract: Economic transition away from dependence on coal mining can be difficult and costly but can yield significant medium-term gains. As nations move away from coal production and coal-based energy generation, the transition creates short-term economic disruption to coal communities, notably through job losses and severe economic recession. In the medium term, however, transition can generate ‘winners’, both locally and in other regions. Displaced coal sector workers may find jobs in more sustainable and more productive industries. Environmental degradation from mining activities can give way to restoration and conversion of natural resource assets. And both coal and noncoal regions can benefit from reduced pollution and healthier people, directly improving human capital. But local economic downturns can also persist to the point that economic decline threatens a community’s viability. The likelihood of this more pessimistic outcome increases in coal regions that are already lagging their non-coal counterparts in terms of economic well-being. This paper examines the transition away from coal mining in the Appalachia region of the United States and the impact on local communities; the aim is to identify factors that helped some communities transition more successfully than others. The analysis looks beyond traditional economic factors and considers broader social and institutional aspects germane to the community capitals literature. Whether driven by new market realities or the imperative to mitigate climate-change, coal communities in other countries will need to transition to alternative economic activities and can benefit from the experiences of coal regions in Appalachia or elsewhere. 

"How Do Natural Disasters Change Consumption Behaviour in Thailand and the Philipines" (With Kensuke Tanaka and Prasiwi Ibrahim), Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 40(2), pp. 175-97. Published Version;   Working Paper.

Abstract: This study examines the effects of disasters on consumption in Thailand and the Philippines, using three major natural hazards for each country, including the 2004 tsunami, the 2011 and 2016-17 floods in Thailand, and typhoons Bopha, Haiyan, and Meranti in the Philippines. To examine the effects of a disaster on total consumption, this study uses an interrupted timeseries analysis. A decline in consumption is observed after a disaster in Thailand, stemming from a reduction in expenditure of the services sector including recreation, restaurants, and hotels, though the decline is partially offset by increased spending on non-durable goods. For the Philippines, declines in overall consumer spending are observed in response to these disasters with no specific sectoral responses in teh sample. When a diaster hits, reactions from governments are crucial to providing immediate help to victims, which could have an impact on consumption and overall economic activity. These reactions take the form of emergency relief and assistance including compensation schemes, as well as helping with reconstuctions. However, developing longer-term disaster mitigation and resilience policies is also crucial to prevent or prepare for future disasters. 

"Migration, Education, Technological Change and Growing Urban Inequality" (With Nattanicha Chairassamee and Mark Partridge), Annals of Regional Science.  Link

Abstract: The economic literature has been silent on two key channels regarding how innovation affects labor supply: skilled-worker migration and “local production” of college graduates. Through these two channels, innovation influences wage divergence, skill levels, and productivity across urban areas. Using patents to proxy for regional innovation, we find that from 2005 to 2015, local college-graduate production plays a greater role in explaining US skill divergence across urban counties. Our findings suggest that local governments should focus on investing in greater local capacity for developing innovations and increasing their local higher-education capacity. Conversely, efforts to attract highly-educated workers from elsewhere should be relatively de-emphasized. 

"The Effects of Covid-19 Pandemic on U.S. Enterpreneurship" (With Nattanicha Chairassamee), Letters in Spatial and Resource Science.  Link

Abstract: We study the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. entrepreneurial activities, as measured by the overall number of new business applications, high-propensity business applications, business applications from corporations, and business applications with paid wages. However, the number of business applications increased significantly after the lockdown. Also, the portion of high-propensity business applications as a share of total business applications declined considerably during and after the lockdown. Our findings could partially explain the tight labor market in the U.S. during the pandemic. 

"Financing and Enrollments in Public Universities" (With Nattanicha Chairassamee), Applied Economics. Link

Abstract: State budget cuts have raised concerns about the disproportionate enrolment of out-of-state students. These students pay higher tuition fees at public universities. We investigate the decision-making of public universities about in-state and out-of-state enrolments by considering tuition rates as a financial incentive. We find that out-of-state enrolment is elastic, while in-state enrolment is relatively less elastic. Universities participating in reciprocity programs show that local student share is relatively insensitive to tuition changes; however, non-local student enrolments are more sensitive to these tuition changes. Overall, there is no evidence of the crowding-out effect on local student enrolment. 

"The effects of COVID-19 on labor force nonparticipation in the short run: racial and ethnic disparities (with Nattanicha Chairassamee), Accepted for publication in Review of Social Economy. https://doi.org/10.1080/00346764.2022.2086997  (Published Version;  Working Paper)

Abstract: We study the labor force nonparticipation in U.S. metropolitan areas during the early period of the COVID-19 crisis. While the magnitudes are small, we observe statistically significant differences between non-white and white workers’ labor nonparticipation. In particular, non-white workers in the ‘very-low teleworkable’ industries are more likely to drop out of the labor market. Aside from race or ethnicity, market conditions, including a lack of jobs, or a belief that jobs are unavailable, are important explanations for labor market nonparticipation. Health concerns and household responsibilities become more significant over time in motivating non-white workers to drop out of the labor market.

"The Effects of Minimum Wages over the Business Cycle: The Great Recession”  (with Nanxin Deng), 2023, International Journal of Manpower, 44(1), 19-36.  https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-07-2021-0402  (Published Version;  Working Paper)

Abstract: This paper examines disemployment effects of minimum wages during the period 2002 to 2010.  We employ a border discontinuity design. We find that minimum wages had a significant negative impact on teen employment before the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, the disemployment effects of minimum wages were insignificant. The finding is consistent with the evolution of firms’ market power during the business cycle. We attempt to reconcile the debate about the effects of minimum wages on U.S. employment.

” The Effects of Technological Progress in Innovative Regions on the Labor Markets of Lagging Regions", 2022, Economies, 10(8), 197. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10080197 .  (Manuscript)

Abstract: The technological effects of innovative regions on lagging regions’ labor markets have not been yet well understood, especially in the urban–rural context. I introduce a theoretical model that yields insight into the interactions between high-technology and lagging regions. While, through knowledge spillovers, urban technology can increase rural jobs, it can also reduce rural employment by raising the competitive advantage of urban firms over rural firms in product market competition. Progress in urban technology also exerts an ambiguous effect of a brain drain on the rural labor market.

"The effects of Shale Oil and Gas Endowments on Regional Labor Markets" (With Seunghun Chung), International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(5), 425-431. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13320 .

Abstract: We analyze the effects of shale oil development on regional labor markets. By exploiting the exogenous geographic endowment of shale oil and gas, we find that shale endowments have differential impacts on workers in and out of the labor market. After introducing new shale technologies in 2006, shale oil and gas significantly increased the local share of high school graduates participating in the labor force. Yet, shale endowments decreased the percentage of nonworking college graduates who do not participate in the labor force. Our results suggest that shale oil and gas could increase the demand for high school graduates but create disamenities for college graduates who are not in the labor force. 

“The Effect of Metropolitan Technological Progress on the Non-Metropolitan Labor Market: Evidence from U.S. Patents”  (with Mark D. Partridge), 2022, Regional Studies, 56(3), 476-488. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1935841. (Published Version;  Working Paper)

Abstract: While urban technology exerts a positive effect on rural development through knowledge spillovers, it also raises the competitive advantage of urban firms over rural firms in product market competition. Urban technology also affects the rural labor market through brain drain. Using U.S. county-level data, we find a negative relationship between metropolitan patent counts and nonmetropolitan labor market performance. Our basic calculation indicates that between 2005 and 2015, metropolitan technological progress was associated with a relative loss of about 2.5 million nonmetropolitan jobs.

“Household Consumption Expenditure in Thailand during the First COVID-19 Lockdown”  (with Nattanicha Chairassamee), 2022, Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, 28 (2), 1-37. https://doi.org/10.18356/26178419-28-2-1 . (Manuscript)

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly challenging to developing countries, such as Thailand. Although the country has managed to control the outbreak relatively well, changes in the consumer spending behaviour could affect the whole economy. In this study, household consumption expenditure in Thailand during the first COVID-19 lockdown is examined by using descriptive and empirical analyses. The findings of this study indicate that total consumption declined drastically during the first two quarters of 2020. Consumer spending on services dropped significantly during that time, but spending on non-durable goods, durable goods and housing-related expenses increased. These expenditure patterns are similar to those in developed countries in which consumers increased their spending on at-home activities, but reduced their expenditures outside the home. 

"The Economics of Child Marriage", 2023 , African Journal of Economic Review, 11(1), 1-10. Link

Abstract: While child marriage is often believed to be solely caused by cultural factors, its prevalence is still high in developing countries and, in particular, in low-income families. I provide a theoretical model showing that child marriage could also potentially result from economic incentives. Policies aiming at reducing poverty and other economic constraints could reduce the incidence of child marriage.  

"Geography of Migration: An Introduction" (with Karima Kourtit, Bruce Newbold, Peter Nijkamp, and Mark Partridge). The Economic Geography of Cross-Border Migration, edited by Karima Kourtit, Bruce Newbold, Peter Nijkamp, and Mark Partridge, Footprints of Regional Science. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48291-6_1.     

Abstract: We live in the “age of migration.” Migration can take different forms: local, domestic, or cross-border (regional or international). In recent years, a considerable amount of attention has been directed to the socio-economic aspects of cross-border (interregional and international) migration (see, e.g., Stough et al. in Modelling aging and migration effects on spatial labor markets. Springer, Berlin, 2018). In the Handbook on the “Economics of International Migration” (Chiswick and Miller in Handbook on the economics of international migration. North-Holland Publishing, Amsterdam, 2015), we find many interesting economic contributions on migration phenomena, mainly from a macro- or meso-economic angle. It should be recognized, however, that migration is not only an economic or demographic phenomenon, but it also has clear geographical dimensions in terms of socio-economic drivers of, or impacts on, places of origin or destination.