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The End Game - 2020 Results!
And the results are in!! The winner for 2020 is davflaws (204%) who joined a total of six others in having the foresight to pick Pacific Edge as the 'stock to watch' for the year! With a move from $0.12 to $1.22 (a 916% increase), nothing else even came close - and ensured a win for the group of seven.
Black Knat was the 'best of the rest', with a 54% return overall. They had picked the second-placed stock for 2020, MHM Automation - the former Mercer Group - with a return of 185%.
I've expanded the summary table below to show the top 12 and the impact of Pacific Edge.
Amongst the broker picks, the Sharetrader Top 5 (18.4%) had its worst result for the last couple of years, finishing 3rd behind Craig's Investment Partners (27.8%) and MSL Capital (24.5%). Remember that this comp runs from Dec 31st 2019 to Dec 31st 2020 - hence the differing results reported in the official NZ Herald article giving the win to the Sharetrader top 5! The Sharetrader picks were poorly affected by the selection of A2 Milk late in the month, after the official NZ Herald close dates.
That highlights the impact of the arbitrary timelines of the game, short-term volatility and the 'limited portfolio' implied by a basket of five shares - at the end of the day, this is only a game!
We have plenty of entries for the 2021 edition, and I'll write (and post) an article with a bit of a summary once I back to a normal internet connection with no mountains in the way!
Results to December 4th 2020:
And we have a change to the top 5! But they are still part of the Pacific Edge brigade...Nutz has replaced Bigbob in 5th place. Below the 'Pacific Edge' crowd, silverblizzard888 has replaced RupertBear in 8th place, but a long way shy of 7th.
The main reason for those movements was the rise in Evolve Education Group (EVO), from 11.6c to 17.4c during November on the back of an announced upgrade (silverblizzard888) and the decline in New Talisman (NTL) impacting Bigbob. That would have been worse for BigBob had NTL not staged something of a recovery on Friday (Dec 4th). Vista Group (VGL) was also a strong performer over the month, continuing its momentum from late October.
Over the last week, Rakon (RAK) and Pacific Edge (PEB) have gained some momentum, on the back of half year results (RAK) and analyst expectations (PEB). Tower (TWR) and Heartland Group (HGH) have also been strong performers, with Heartland's run continuing after a bullish Annual Shareholders Meeting. Fisher and Paykel (FPH, -7.2%) and QEX Logistics (QEX, -9.9%) were the big losers over the week.
In the hotly-contested broker picks, there has been a BIG change during the month, with Craigs Investment taking a clear lead! The YTD return of 19.4% is well down on MSL Capital and the Sharetrader Top 5 returns of around 24.5% last month, and reflected the falls in Arvida (ARV), AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT) and Plexure (PX1) during the month.
The benchmark NZX50 is at 10.7% return YTD, reflecting a strong November.
Results to November 6th 2020:
No change to the top 5 this week. But to make up for that, there's been a recent change in US President, which probably overshadows the Share Picks comp slightly. Below the 'Pacific Edge' crowd, RupertBear continues to lead the chasing pack in 8th place, but a long way shy of 7th.
Over the last week, there's been a slight resurgence in 'software' related shares, with both Gentrack (13.2%) and Vista Group (8.6%) showing strong gains for the week. The sentiment didn't extend to Pushpay, which fell 7.3% on the back of weak customer growth numbers. The big gainer of the week, however, was QEX Logistics, rising nearly 30% on the back of very little news.
In the hotly-contested broker picks, MSL Capital and the Sharetrader Top 5 remain close to neck-and-neck, with a YTD return of 24.8% and 24.5% respectively. That's a slight 'closing of the gap' since last week, probably due to a slight recovery of the A2 Milk share price during the week.
The benchmark NZX50 is at 7.4% return YTD, a strong increase on the previous week.
Results to October 30th 2020:
Well there is a slight change this month...TideMan and Bearabull have swapped places, as have Bigbob and Xerof. But the gap is closing, so davflaws position at the top could be in jeopardy in coming weeks!
Markets have been generally volatile over the last month, thanks to the US general election and the resurgence of Covid-19 in some markets. Retail stocks have been the big winner in New Zealand, with Kathmandu and Michael Hill (Jeweller) in the top 5 performers since September 25th. NZME continues its recovery - could this finally be some stability for the media sector in NZ? - while ikeGPS and Metro Performance Glass round out the top 5.
In the hotly-contested broker picks, MSL Capital and the Sharetrader Top 5 are close to neck-and-neck, with a YTD return of 24.9% and 24.4% respectively. The re-rating of A2 Milk has had an influence here, affecting many in the picks comp including the Brokers.
The benchmark NZX50 is at 5.2% return YTD.
Results to September 25th 2020:
Sigh...again, no change in the leaderboard this week thanks to Pacific Edge. RupertBear remains the leader of the non-PEB chasing pack in 8th place, although the gap is now closing slightly.
Since the last update on Sep 11th, the main movers have included Hallenstein-Glassons (HLG), up 27% on the back of a spectacular profit announcement on Friday (and news that trading is up 10% in spite of Covid). NZME (NZM) and Pushpay Holdings (PPH) are both up 15% - for NZME in particular, these gains are looking like the beginnings of a sustainable outlook. Tourism Holdings (THL) also rose strongly on the back of a better-than-expected results for 2020.
None of those changes impacted the leaders at all - although its notable that E-Roads (ERD) 9% fall over the past fortnight, as they launched a drive for new capital on Thursday, has had an impact on Bearabull.
The top brokerage has had a significant change, however, with the Sharetrader Top 5 leaping into 1st place, with a YTD return of 20.8%, as A2 Milk (ATM) and Serko (SKO) both staged a form of recovery over the last fortnight, with Serko now included in the NZX50 index. MSL Capital is close behind on 20.4%.
The benchmark NZX50 is at 2.7% YTD, with continuing weakness over the last fortnight.
Results to September 4th 2020:
The Pacific Edge (PEB) effect has turned the comp into a very stable looking leaderboard...again, there is no change this week. Incidentally, for those of us who have NOT picked PEB, RupertBear is the leader of the chasing pack in 8th place.
In a week where the NZX50 fell 250 points, the main movers included Cannasouth (CBD), up 17% and thereby recovering something of its losses from the previous week, NZME (NZM) up another 10% and AWF Group (AWF) also rising 10% on the back of a profit upgrade released to the market on Friday. AT the other end of the scale, Truscreen (TRU), Fisher & Paykel (FPH) and Pushpay Holdings (PPH) were down between 9-14% for the week, possibly on the back of the tech sell-off led from the US market.
The top brokerage remains MSL Capital (YTD return = 21.8%), thanks to their selections of AFT Pharmaceuticals, Vector and Plexure., all of which have risen strongly over the last month.
The benchmark NZX50 is at 2,9% YTD, thanks to the sell-off on Sep 4th.
Results to August 28th 2020:
A fairly stable month for the actual competition, with the top 5 in our comp not changing AT ALL! I don't think this is down to my calculations, its simply that Pacific Edge (PEB) has given our leading group such a leg up that the rest of us have no hope of catching up...
Big movers during the month included NZME (NZM), up a whopping 59.2% on the back of their half-year results (someone should write something about that...), Mercer Group - now known as MHM Automation (MHM) - up 54% for the same reason and Cannasouth (CBD) up by 40%. At the other end of the scale, Cavalier (CAV) declined by a touch over 20% with Pacific Edge (PEB) and Sanford (SAN) shedding around 13% each.
On a very specific note, the de-listing of Augusta Capital (AUG) on August 21st has affected one contestant - Price.Buchanan. You'll recall at the beginning of the year that we gave contestants the opportunity to 'replace' a share in the event of a de-listing. Price.Buchanan chose "Cash" as their replacement...at the time of delisting, AUG had declined from the beginning of the year to $1,306.70 (from $2000), so the amount of replaced cash gives exactly that same amount on Aug 21st (allowing for interest).
The top performing shares so far this year remain Pacific Edge, Pushpay, Fisher & Paykel, Plexure and Solution Dynamics - reinforcing the role of Healthcare and Technology stocks in underpinning overall NZX returns.
The top brokerage has now changed to MSL Capital (YTD return = 22.5%), with the Sharetrader Top 5 and Hamilton Hindin Greene not far behind. This is less about HHG or Sharetrader Top 5, but solely down to MSL selections of AFT Pharmaceuticals, Vector and Plexure., all of which have risen strongly over the last month.
The benchmark NZX50 is at 5.2%.
Results to July 24th 2020:
Well, it has been a while between updates. Please accept my apologies - when things get busy, this little update tends to suffer! On the other hand - it's clear that not much has changed on the leaderboard anyway!! The PEB-pickers still reign supreme, with strong cameos from PLX and ATM. The top 3 has not changed over the last month, with Bearabull (4) and Xerof (5) joining the top 5.
What HAS changed dramatically is the total return - davflaws and TideMan have doubled their theoretical money over the last month. Most of that is thanks to PEB - the share has continued to climb, up from $0.30 to $0.69 since the last update. PLX has not fared too badly either - up to $1.20 on Friday from $0.94. And that is prior to today's news on a potential ASX listing.
There's been good strength in the retirement sector also that seems to underpin a fair chunk of the leaderboard.
The top performing shares so far this year are Pacific Edge, Pushpay, Fisher & Paykel, Plexure and Solution Dynamics - so 2020 is proving a good year for Healthcare and Technology stocks.
The Sharetrader Top 5 his again the TOP BROKER - well done all - with a creditable 13.1% YTD return. Hamilton Hindin Greene is in second place and the NZX50 benchmark is at 1.3%.
Results to June 19th 2020:
If the last update saw 'no change' to our top 5, this week certainly changes that. RupertBear and noodles have made the cut, staying in 4th and 5th place respectively...but the changes over the last couple of weeks have seen a new leader in davflaws.
The main reason, of course, is the massive change in fortunes for Pacific Edge (PEB), rising from $0.13 to $0.30 during the week. The world amazes me at the moment, but there's not much that tops this. Well, until a certain President drops his next rhetorical clanger onto the world stage. PEB's change in fortunes comes as a major US healthcare provider, Kaiser Permanente, have agreed commercial terms for the use of PEB's CXBladder tests. Pacific Edge has had trials ongoing in the US for a loooong time, so this indeed is welcome news for shareholders.
The irony or poor old RupertBear is that they have actually done quite well over the same period. A2 Milk (ATM) rose around 10% during the week, on the back of inclusion in the ASX50 index, while Pushpay Holdings (PPH) rose a solid 15% on the back of a strong profit result for the 2019/20 financial year - turning a US$1.4m loss into a US$21.4m profit, on the back of strong revenue growth.
The Sharetrader Top 5 has slipped to 3rd place in the broker picks (2.8% YTD return), but it is all very close. Hamilton Hindin Greene is back on top, with Craig's Investment Partners JUST edging out the ST Top 5. 60 out of 200 participants have a return above $0.
Results to June 5th 2020:
Some big movements over the last week, as NZ Inc gains confidence that Level 1 will be upon us soon. The sentiment is shared by global markets (rightly or wrongly), which is helping give the NZX a lift. That's the first time I can remember that happening. YTD returns by rupertbear increased from 21.9% to 25.3% during the week, a creditable result during this torrid year.
RupertBear is still out in front, although their lead has been trimmed slightly s they dropped to a 24% return YTD while others caught up. The makeup of the top 5 is still the same, although noodles and stef dropped to 4th and 5th place respectively, thanks to an 8% drop in Pushpay Holdings (PPH) and a 6% drop in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH).
The big positive mover during the week was Serko (SKO), up nearly 18%, with a decent week for Plexure (PLX), up 5% as investors continue to digest their annual report, and Oceania Healthcare (OCA), up 6%.
The real news this week is that the Sharetrader Top 5 is in 1st place in the broker picks (3.5% YTD return), finally running down Hamilton Hindin Greene. To be fair, HHG are only 2 places further back on the leaderboard, so still a close-run thing. NZX50 YTD return is still negative - but only just at -2.8%. It is in 67th place - meaning that a third of us are 'beating the market', a proportion that has increased as the Covid-19 period continues.
Results to May 29th 2020:
Last week saw everyone's average return go up just that little bit - but has resulted in absolutely no change in the top 5 on the leaderboard!! That's the first time I can remember that happening. YTD returns by rupertbear increased from 21.9% to 25.3% during the week, a creditable result during this torrid year.
The highlight last week was the solid result announcement by Mainfreight (MFT), although this had little impact on those who picked it. Serko (SKO) continues to have head-scratchingly strong run, while Blis Technology (BLT) announced a solid result, but saw its share price fall slightly as a result.
The Cash Benchmark continues to slide in the rankings (40th), with top broker Hamilton Hindin Greene remaining in 31st - a YTD return of 2.9%. The Sharetrader Top 5 remains in 2nd place - just - with a return of -0.6%.
Results to May 22nd 2020:
I'm the first to admit that it's been a while...like many, I've found the initial period after 'lockdown' has been filled with competing priorities.
In terms of our leaderboard, stef and soi6 are still there, but RupertBear is now sitting at the top, with a 21.9% return so far this year. That is partly driven by the rise of the tech sector over the last month, following strong result announcements by both Pushpay Holdings (PPH) and Plexure Group (PLX). Its not all roses though - Truscreen's (TRU) share price fell as quickly as rose (hence tango's fall from grace) while the slide in A2 Milk's (ATM) share price during last week hurt quite a few.
That has benefited all 3 of the new entrants to the top 5 (RupertBear, noodles and silverblizzard888) since the last commentary in late April. So while Healthcare (FPH, BLT, AFT) still underpin NZX strength this year, Pushpay is actually the share that has the largest percentage return on the NZX this year (83.1%).
The Cash Benchmark is now well down the pecking order, in 38th place, with top broker Hamilton Hindin Greene slipping to 31st - a YTD return of 2.2%. Interestingly, the Sharetrader Top 5 has now crawled into 2nd place on the broker table (45th overall, -1.3%) - now well above the NZX return for the year of -7.3%.
Results to Apr 24th 2020:
Somehow, I managed to miss a commentary update last week. Not that the underlying results are being updated daily, however, just in case you are missing your competitive fix. The irony is, of course...that for the most part not much has changed! soi6 and stef are still battling it out at the top of the leaderboard; for those two, its essentially a drag race between AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT) and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) - their other picks are the same, with both also including Blis Technology (BLT) highlighting their 'picks bias' towards the outperforming Healthcare sector. Tango has benefited from news that Truscreen (TRU) is rolling out its cervical cancer screening device to Vietnam, while in other Healthcare news, Ebos Group (EBO) has formally announced the earnings upgrade that everyone expected. That has helped Zeitgeist into 4th place.
I hasten to add that I aim to cover the broader market, not just the Healthcare sector. But there is a distinct 'one-trick pony' underpinning NZX performance in 2020 so far...
Nonetheless, the gradual uptick in the NZX50 has seen the Cash benchmark drop out of the top 5. The index has risen by around 4% over the last fortnight - although its clearly a story of Healthcare + A2 Milk.
Hamilton Hindin Greene remains the top broker, in 9th place overall. Z Energy (ZEL) is the main drag on their performance, with a near 30% decline in share price this year.
Results to Apr 9th 2020:
A slightly shorter trading week this week, thanks to the Easter break. The NZX50 tracked itself sideways for most of the week, ending only slightly up on where it started. But that masked some significant movements of individual shares, that has completely changed our leaderboard! Zeitgeist is still hanging in there in 5th place (down from 1st), as the boil came slightly off both Ebos (EBO) and Fisher and Paykel (FPH) - the Healthcare stocks - for the first time in ages. Similarly, the Telco sector also suffered a general decline. Conversely, the retirement sector had its first positive week since February; unless, of course, you are a shareholder in Metlifecare (MET) which saw its takeover offer begin to unravel.
The week saw good gains for Mainfreight (MFT), on the back of a positive operational update and Blis Technology (BLT) following an earnings upgrade late on Thursday, bucking the weekly healthcare sector trend. Amongst other small caps, Plexure (PLX) also enjoyed a massive gain (nearly 25%) during the week and IkeGPS (IKE) and AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT) rose over 10%.
Those changes were of huge benefit to soi 6, who has suddenly found themselves in 1st place. You may remember that soi 6 led the competition for most of 2019, only to be pipped at the post during the last quarter of the year. Stef and Chanchay have also benefited from the individual shares discussed above.
Hamilton Hindin Greene remains the top broker, although have slipped to 11th place overall. The Sharetrader top 5 'virtual broker' had a massive improvement this week, thanks to both BLT and PLX, although still lags most brokers and the NZX50 in 65th place overall.
Results to Apr 3rd 2020:
The NZX50 continued its recovery during the week, now only (!) 13.5% down on its opening value for the year. The general rule of thumb from last week remains - those of us who picked health or telco-related stocks (excepting Infratil) remain in a strong position, with the retirement sector translating some downside pain to our portfolios.
But there has been one significant change this week - Cash is no longer the monarch! That title belongs to Zeitgeist...although to be fair Cash is in a pretty solid 2nd place.
Hamilton Hindin Greene remains the top broker, in 4th spot overall, with stones entering the top 5 in 5th place (at the expense of wgp). Only Zeitgeist, Dzhang and Hamilton Hindin Greene are in positive territory. Also notable that the NZX50 is outperforming 85% of us so far as well.
Results to Mar 27th 2020:
A slightly earlier set of results than usual, as I've modified the process I use. May not last, but hey, worth a try. The commentaries will remain weekly, although I'll be trying to move the results in the detailed pages to a daily update.
The NZX50 recovered a little this week, trimming its YTD losses from 20% to a mere 16.8%. The general rule of thumb is that those of us who picked FIsher and Paykel (FPH), Ebos Group (EBO) and A2 Milk (ATM) - all in a form of the 'health and well-being' sector - remain in a strong position. The telco sector has also performed well, with Chorus (CNU) a standout performer with a 6% return YTD, presumably as consumers relying on home connections shores up demand. Spark (SPK ) has only fallen slightly (4.4%) this year, although conglomerate investor Infratil (IFT), who own 50% of Vodafone NZ, has suffered a larger 20% fall.
At the other end of the scale, the retirement care sector has taken a hammering, with YTD returns (incl. dividends) averaging over -40%. Arvida (ARV) is the best of these, with a YTD fall of 35.7%, while Oceania (OCA) has fallen a whopping 53.7%. Another NZX staple, the "Gentailer" sector is down an average 20.5%.
All this has led to significant change in our leaderboard. Cash is still a gender-neutral form of regal monarch, with Zeitgeist leaping into 2nd spot with a YTD loss of just 2.6%, thanks to the holy trinity of FPH, ATM and EBO. Hamilton Hindin Greene remains the top broker (3rd overall) with their pick of Z Energy (ZEL) suffering a further decline over the past week (YTD return of -37.5%). Dzhang and wgp are both new to the top 5, with EBO and FPH playing a strong hand in their rise.
Results to Mar 20th 2020:
No surprises here...Cash is still the King, with a cash portfolio retaining its 1st place this week as the only positive returning portfolio this year. There are now some changes to the remainder of the top 5 however, with broker Hamilton Hindin Greene in 2nd place, with their selection of both EBOS (EBO) and Fisher & Paykel supporting their overall portfolio position Health-related stocks (including Blis Technology) have held up relatively well during March.
The first individual to make an appearance is Zeitgeist, with a remarkable 8.3% fall so far this year. In context...not bad!
Price.Buchanan has fallen from 3rd to 16th place thanks to large falls in both Augusta (AUG) and Ryman Healthcare (RYM). In Augusta's case, this is thanks to the withdrawal of a takeover offer; this had supported the share price earlier in the month when others were falling. There is no announcement to support the fall in RYM, however, the retirement sector listed shares have been hit harder than most as (perceived) risk builds of a Covid-19 outbreak within retirement villages. Bigbob has dropped less in the leaderboard, supported by an A2 Milk (ATM) that is currently exhibiting share price growth - however, this is currently offset by the marked decline in Wellington Drive Technology (WDT), who have been impacted by both Chinese supply chains and a decline in demand, as their customers face other priorities.
The NZX50 is down 20% this year, but is in 32nd place - meaning that picks made by 170 of us (including this individual) are not performing as well as the market return.
Results to Mar 13th 2020:
Its official - 'cash' is indeed the top dog amongst us all. The Cash Benchmark has leapt into 1st place this week as the only positive returning portfolio this year, with the remainder of the Top 5 being the same...albeit in a different order.
Thanks to Covid-19, the fall in the NZX is broad-based in nature, with no portfolio being immune. The top 5 are supported by their holdings in A2 Milk (ATM), Augusta (AUG), Fisher & Paykel (FPH) and New Talisman Mines (NTL). ATM and FPH seem to be the only two major stocks to be bucking the trend, with both having company-specific benefits of holding through this downturn. Augusta is supported by a takeover offer, while New Talisman....ummm....well, sometimes there is a benefit in not actually doing a lot.
Amongst the brokers, Hamilton Hindin Greene is sitting in 6th place with the Sharetrader Top 5 - ie, the collective wisdom of us all - sitting in a lowly 157th place. NZX is down 15% since end-December (around 20% from its highs in mid -February), with a huge fall during this week.
Results to Mar 6th 2020:
Again, a bit late this week as I've struggled to get the data together...the huge market swings that have halted trading have also led to less stability/accuracy in data sources. Markets continued to slide in the week to Mar 6 (as they have in the week just gone). But its very clear that some stocks are better than others - Price.Buchanan has continued to maintain their lead, with everyone in the top 5 last week maintaining positions in the top 10. Their YTD return has even increased over the week; mainly thanks to A2 Milk (ATM) - which has taken a more 'market-aligned hammering' since.
Hamilton Hindin Greene move into 5th place overall as the top broker, with Bigbob entering the top 5 thanks to a strong weekly performance by Wellington Drive Technologies (WDT).
The Cash benchmark has now dropped to 16th place, with a YTD return of 0.5%, with the number of participants now earning a negative YTD return down slightly to 186. NZX is down 0.6% vs Dec 31st 2019.
Results to Feb 28th 2020:
A bit late this week...sorry 'bout that! Well, this was a week of returns carnage (followed by another one this week) impacting the leaderboard and the overall returns. Last week, the average YTD return of participants was a creditable (if not magnificent) 1.1%. This week, the average YTD return has fallen to an amazing -7.7%! The NZX return also fell, from 5.1% YTD to -2.0%. In spite of this, the index return is sitting in a remarkable 25th place out of 200-odd participants.
So with that as a backdrop, its not surprising that the leaderboard has had some changes. Price.Buchanan gets the award for the most covid-19-proofed portfolio, although their YTD returns dropped from 15.1% to 4.9% they have maintained their position in first place. But that's it - everyone else in the top 5 has changed. Those who picked A2 Milk (ATM), Fisher & Paykel (FPH) and Ebos (EBO) have been insulated to some extent from the broader market changes, as their share prices have held up well...always helps when your core business is focused on medical or well-being!
Amongst the brokers, Hamilton Hindin Greene drops slightly into 7th place overall (1.1% YTD). But this is a strong performance in the context of what has occurred. More interestingly, the Cash benchmark is now in 11th place, with a YTD return of 0.4%. 193 participants are now earning a negative YTD return.
Last, its not over yet. This analysis is only to Feb 28th, with further volatility (downward?) occurring right now. I'm anticipating nextw eek's results with interest!
Results to Feb 21st 2020:
In a world before the carnage that started Monday, the leaderboard for the shares competition showed some remarkable stability! We did lose noodles, replaced by stef, but the week was notable in that the YTD returns increased by an entire percentage point during the week. Lets not predict what this week will bring...
The big movers last week were Pushpay (PPH), with a close to 10% decline, and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH), with an approx. 8% lift in share price driven by an earnings upgrade announcement. A2 Milk (ATM) also continued its strong run.
Amongst the brokers, Hamilton Hindin Greene continues its strong run, holding onto 6th place overall (8.9% YTD). It has had a strong run across all of its picks, with even Z Energy (ZEL) posting a small recovery in its price since Jan 1st. But a portfolio of Z, A2 Milk, Fisher & Paykel, EBOS and Meridian is starting to look pretty solid.
The NZ50 rose a further 2.1% last week, to bring YTD returns to 5.1% (39th place) - that means its better than 80% of us so far!
Results to Feb 14th 2020:
There's been a massive change in the leaderboard and in overall returns this week. Price.Buchanan has moved into 1st place, as Augusta Capital (AUG) continued to move up well above its takeover offer price of $2.00/share to trade at $2.17 on Feb 14th close, as property data for January showed strong growth rates. Does seem to suggest that ASX-listed Centuria Group will have to dig a bit deeper into its pockets to secure shareholder acceptance.
The other big mover impacting the leaderboard was Plexure Group (PLX), with an upgrade of revenue expectations released by the company during the week. Pushpay Holdings (PPH) and A2 Milk (ATM) also had a strong week. At the other end, Synlait Dairy (SML) released a downgrade that saw a 25% reduction in its share price.
That has propelled RupertBear, Noodles and davflaws into 2-4 place respectively, tipping out Bigbob, Jay and Brain. Paint it Black managed to remain in 5th place. The week saw year-to-date returns increase significantly, and some wild moves in individual rankings. For example, sylvestercat saw their ranking move from 101st to 46th.
The NZ50 is up 3.0% so far this year (57th place), with the Sharetrader top 5 index pulling ahead of the market. Top of the brokers is...Hamilton Hindin Greene (18th) with a creditable 5.7% return YTD.
Results to Feb 7th 2020:
Somewhat incredibly, there is NO CHANGE in the top 5 this week! Paint it Black and Price.Buchanan are opening quite the lead on the rest of us however, with a 3% YTD gap in returns to Bigbob in 3rd.
NTL (New Talisman) and AUG (Augusta Properties) continue to underpin results for the top 5, although the increase in ATM (A2 Milk) has increased average returns for most entrants significantly. On the other hand, BLT (Blis Technology) suffered a significant fall towards the end of the week, affecting a number of entrants. That means that the range of returns YTD is widening, from 10.3% at the top to -14.4% at the bottom, with GTK (Gentrack) having a significant impact at the other end of the leaderboard.
The NZ50 is up 2.3% so far this year, pulling into a remarkable 37th place out of 200 entrants.
Results to Jan 31st 2020:
The leaderboard is settling into a solid pattern at the end of January, with three out of the top five for last week keeping in the top 5 this week. The exceptions were tango and HITMAN, both impacted by the decline in Truscreen's (TRU) share price late in the month.
Paint it Black is our new leader, with no real changes to their position since the previous week. The big mover awards goes to Price.Buchanan, who leapt into 2nd place on the back of a big week by Augutsa Properties (AUG), following their announcement of a takeover offer at $2.00 per share.
For January as a whole, there's a slew of small-cap stocks leading the performance of the exchange. In addition to Augusta, Pushpay (PPH), Mercer Group, Truscreen and New Talisman have all shown gains for the month of over 10%.
The NZ50 showed a gain of 2% for January, still ahead of 75% of entrants! This is in spite of a significant drop in the index during the last week of the month, thanks to investor nervousness related to Coronavirus.
Results to Jan 24th 2020:
For this week, tango has dropped into 3rd place, with Jay leaping into top spot. Placings are still volatile this early in the year.
A2 Milk (ATM) had a good week, rising from $15.16 to $16.01, underpinning the week's gains. But the results at this early stage a skewed by New Talisman (NTL) rising from 0.6 to 0.8 cents. There's no news to underpin this gain, and its interesting that the stock has traded as high as 1 cent this week. Truscreen (TRU) has maintained its gains from the previous week. While not featuring amongst the top entrants on the leaderboard, Green Cross (GXH), Pushpay (PPH) and Briscoes (BGP) have all had a strong January so far.
At the other end of the leaderboard, the downgrade in outlook for Gentrack (GTK) has had the most impact, although Coronavirus concerns are showing in those who have selected Tourism Holdings (THL) and Air NZ (AIR).
The NZ50 continued to gain during last week, with a YTD gain of 3.4%, good enough to beat 75% of entrants!! Interestingly, this is ahead of any broker pick so far (including the ShareTrader Top 5).
Results to Jan 17th 2020:
Its a new year, and the results to Jan 17th show a brand new Top 5! So the old adage of 'past performance is no guarantee for future performance' holds just as true to the individual stockpickers as well. To be fair, we are only talking 2 weeks into the year...although for tango to earn a theoretical 8.7% in just 2 weeks is good work if you can find it.
The key stock that has driven the results so far this year is TRU (Truscreen), on the announcement of positive trials of its core cancer screening product in India. A2 Milk (ATM) has also had a strong start to the year, as investors position themselves for their half-year results announcement early in February. AFT Pharmaceuticals continues to hold the gains it made following the holiday period, following its deal to expand distribution of Maxigesic (its core product) into Indonesia in December.
The NZ50 has had a good start to the year, with a gain to date of 2.7%. This is underpinning many of the entrants in the game, with waiuta being the most significant beneficiary in 4th place. Just a steady performance from all of their (well-known) picks.
Results to Jan 10th 2020:
As you'd expect, its too early in the year to make any serious assessment for the 2020 results so far. The best performing share in the 10 days so far is New Talisman (NTL) - of clear benefit to the 7 people who picked it! There's probably nothing specific driving the NTL movement, although anticipation is building for the next quarterly announcements due in early February. Other strong shares this week included NZ Oil and Gas (NZO), Michael Hill (MHJ) with expected strong Christmas trading and AFT Pharmaceuticals (AFT).
Top of the entrants so far is Paint it Black, thanks to NTL and a solid week by Mercury (MCY) driving a solid 4.2% weekly return. But there's a long way to go...
Results to December 18th 2020:
And the results are in!! The winner for 2020 is davflaws (204%) who joined a total of six others in having the foresight to pick Pacific Edge as the 'stock to watch' for the year! With a move from $0.12 to $1.22 (a 916% increase), nothing else even came close - and ensured a win for the group of seven.
Black Knat was the 'best of the rest', with a 54% return overall. They had picked the second-placed stock for 2020, MHM Automation - the former Mercer Group - with a return of 185%.
I've expanded the summary table below to show the top 12 and the impact of Pacific Edge.
In the broker picks, Craigs Investment is still on top, with the Sharetrader Top 5 continuing to slide on the back of the A2 Milk update. The benchmark NZX50 is at 10.4% return YTD.