Research

Current working papers

• Hérault, N., Kollmann, T. and Thomson, R., Partisan TV and Vote Switching: A Natural Experiment with Fixed Turnout (IZA WP and most recent version)

We estimate the causal effect of partisan media on voters’ choice by exploiting a natural experiment in which Sky News Australia – a conservative 24-hour news channel – became freely available to 8 million people. Using comprehensive national polling-station-level electoral data and broadcast signal strength variation, we implement a difference-in-differences design comparing voting patterns before and after its September 2018 free-to-air launch. We find that exposure to Sky News increased the conservative party's lead by 1.5 percentage points in Australia's 2019 federal election.  Compulsory voting allows us to identify the effect of partisan news on voters’ ballot choices in a clean context unaffected by voter turnout. 

Peer-reviewed journal articles  

1. Fisher-Post, M., Hérault, N. and Wilkins, R. (2025). Distributional National Accounts for Australia, 1991-2018, Journal of Economic Inequality, 23, 27-42.

2. Chan, M., Hérault, N., Vu, H. and Wilkins, R. (2024). The Effect of Job Search Requirements on Family Welfare Receipt, Journal of Labor Economics, 42(3), 635-657.

3. Hérault, N., Hyslop, D., Jenkins, S. P. and Wilkins, R. (2024). Rising Top-Income Persistence in Australia: Evidence from Income Tax Data, Review of Income and Wealth,  70(1), 154-186.

4. Hérault, N. and Jenkins, S. P. (2023). Redistribution, horizontal inequity, and reranking: Direct taxation in the UK, 1977–2020, Journal of Income Distribution, Special issue in honour of Professor Peter Lambert, 32(3-4), 238–262. 

5. Burkhauser, R. V., Hérault, N., Jenkins, S. P. and Wilkins, R. (2023). What accounts for the rising share of women in the top 1%?, Review of Income and Wealth, 2023, 69(1), 1-33. 

6. Van de Ven J. and Hérault, N. (2022). The evolution of tax implicit value judgements in the UK: 1968 to 2018, Oxford Economic Papers, 74(2), 594-609. 

7. Hérault, N. and Kalb, G. (2022). Understanding the rising trend in female labour force participation, Fiscal Studies, 43, 341–363 . 

8. Hérault, N. and Jenkins, S.P. (2022). Redistributive effect and the progressivity of taxes and benefits: UK, 1977–2018, Journal of Income Distribution, Special issue in honour of Nanak Kakwani, 31(3-4), 10-45.

9. Cameron L. et al. (2021). Future Directions: Study Protocol for an Effectiveness-Implementation Hybrid Evaluation of a State-based Social Housing Strategy and Three Social Housing Programs, Social Science Protocols, July 2021, 1-12.

10. Creedy, J., Gemmell, N., Hérault, N. and Mok, P. (2020). Microsimulation Analysis of Optimal Income Tax Reforms: An Application to New Zealand, International Tax and Public Finance, 27(2), 409-434. 

11. Hérault, N. and Jenkins, S. P. (2019). How Valid Are Synthetic Panel Estimates of Poverty Dynamics?, Journal of Economic Inequality, 17(1), 51-76.

12. Burkhauser, R. V., Hérault, N., Jenkins, S. P. and Wilkins, R. (2018). Survey under-coverage of top incomes and estimation of inequality: what is the role of the UK’s SPI adjustment?, Fiscal Studies, 39(2), 213-240.

13. Burkhauser, R. V., Hérault, N., Jenkins, S. P. and Wilkins, R. (2018). Top Incomes and Inequality in the UK: Reconciling Estimates from Household Survey and Tax Return Data, Oxford Economic Papers, 70(2), 301-326.

14. van de Ven, J., Hérault, N. and Azpitarte, F. (2017). Identifying tax implicit equivalence scales, Journal of Economic Inequality, 15, 257-275. 

15. Hérault, N. and Ribar, D. (2017). Food Insecurity and Homelessness in the Journeys Home Survey, Journal of Housing Economics, 37, 52-66.

16. Cobb-Clark, D.A., Hérault, N., Scutella, R. and Tseng, Y.P. (2016). What Drives How Long People Are Homeless?, Journal of Urban Economics, 91, 57-72.

17. Hérault, N. (2016). Explaining the equalising effect of panel-income changes, B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 16(3), 1599-1609.

18. Hérault, N. and Azpitarte, F. (2016). Understanding Changes in the Distribution and Redistribution of Income: A Unifying Decomposition Framework, Review of Income and Wealth, 62(2), 266-282.

19. Hérault, N. and Kalb, G. (2016). Intergenerational Correlation of Labor Market Outcomes, Review of Economics of the Household, 14(1), 231-249.

20. Hérault, N. and Johnson, G. (2016). Homelessness in Australia: Service Reform and Research in the 21st Century, European Journal of Homelessness, 10(3), 127-144.

21. Hérault, N., Kalb, G. and Zakirova, R. (2015). A Study into the Persistence of Living in a Jobless Household, The Economic Record, 91(293), 209-232.

22. Creedy, J. and Hérault, N. (2015). Decomposing Inequality Changes: Allowing for Leisure in the Evaluation of Tax and Transfer Policy Effects, Fiscal Studies, 36(2), 157-180. 

23. Hérault, N. and Azpitarte, F. (2015). Recent Trends in Income Redistribution in Australia: Can Changes in the Tax-Benefit System Account for the Decline in Redistribution?, The Economic Record, 91(292), 38-53.  Winner of the 2015 Economic Record Best Paper Prize.

24. Hérault, N. and Zakirova, R. (2015). Returns to Education: Accounting for Enrolment and Completion Effects, Education Economics, 23(1), 84-100.

25. Buddelmeyer, H., Hérault, N., Kalb, G. and van Zijll de Jong, M. (2012). Linking a Dynamic CGE Model and a Microsimulation Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia, International Journal of Microsimulation, 5(2), 40-58.

26. Hérault, N., Kostenko, W., Marks, G. and Zakirova, R. (2012). The Effects of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Education and Employment Outcomes of Youth, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 1(15), 17-36.

27. Creedy, J. and Hérault, N. (2012). Welfare-Improving Income Tax Reforms: A Microsimulation Analysis, Oxford Economic Papers, 64(1), 128-150.

28. Creedy, J., Hérault, N. and Kalb, G., (2011). Tax Policy Design and The Role of a Tax-Free Threshold, Public Finance and Management, 11 (4), 338-364.

29. Creedy, J., Hérault, N. and Kalb, G., (2011). Measuring Welfare Changes in Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling: Accounting for the Random Utility Component, Journal of Applied Economics, 14(1), 5-34.

30. Hérault, N. (2010). Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models: A Comparison of Behavioural and Reweighting Techniques, International Journal of Microsimulation, 3(1), 35-42.

31. Creedy, J., Hérault, N. and Kalb, G., (2009). Abolishing the Tax-Free Threshold in Australia: Simulating Alternative Reforms, Fiscal Studies, 30(2), 219-246.

32. Hérault, N. (2007). Trade Liberalisation, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa: A CGE-Microsimulation analysis, The Economic Record, 83(262), 317-328.

33. Hérault, N. (2006). Building and Linking a Microsimulation Model to a CGE Model for South Africa, South African Journal of Economics, 74(1), 34-58.

French peer-reviewed articles

1. Hérault, N. (2009). Les apports de la micro-simulation aux modèles d’équilibre général : application au cas de l’Afrique du Sud [The Contribution of Microsimulation to General-Equilibrium Models: an Application to South Africa] Economie et Prévision, 187(1), 123-135.

2. Hérault, N. (2008). L’impact de la libéralisation commerciale sur la pauvreté et les inégalités dans les provinces sud-africaines [The Poverty and Inequality Impacts of Trade Liberalisation across South African Provinces] Economie Appliquée, 3, 132-156.

Book

Libéralisation commerciale, pauvreté et inégalités en Afrique du Sud [Trade Liberalisation, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa], Editions Universitaires Européennes, Saarbrücken, 316 p. (2016).

Book Chapters

Peer reviewed

South Africa, pp. 331-356 in Anderson, K., Cockburn, J. and Martin, W. (eds), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty, World Bank, Washington D.C. (with J. Thurlow) (2010).

Other

Labour Supply Modelling in Sequential Computable General Equilibrium-Microsimulation Models, pp. 3-11 in R.O. Bailly (eds), Emerging Topics in Macroeconomics, Nova Science Publishers, New York (2009).

Magazine Article

Pathways to growth: the reform imperative, Insights, 16 (November 2014), 5-13 (with Cobb-Clark, D., Broadway, B., Bubonya, M., Buddelmeyer, H., Chigavazira, A., Hahn, M., Jensen, P., Li, J., Marks, G., Peyton, K., Robinson, T., Ryan, C., and Tsiaplias, S.).