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2023 Experimental Forecast of Brown and White Shrimp Summer Distributions on the Louisiana Shelf

Brown Shrimp and White Shrimp comprise one of the most valuable fisheries in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The spatial distribution of these species varies from year to year due to a combination of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors. In particular, shrimp habitat on the Louisiana shelf is affected by bottom dissolved oxygen (DO), which declines to hypoxic levels (≤ 2 mg L-1) across much of the inner (6–34 m depth) Louisiana shelf during the summer months, when the shrimp fishing season is at its peak. Seasonal forecasts of the spatial distributions of shrimp are potentially useful for both shrimpers and managers of the fishery.

A forecasting model of shrimp spatial distributions has been developed for the Louisiana continental shelf by a team that includes researchers at North Carolina State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Our intent is to verify and improve on these forecasts in future years, with the goal of informing the shrimp fishery and associated management organizations earlier in the summer season. 

2022 Experimental Forecast of Brown and White Shrimp Summer Distributions on the Louisiana Shelf

Brown Shrimp and White Shrimp comprise one of the most valuable fisheries in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The spatial distribution of these species varies from year to year due to a combination of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors. In particular, shrimp habitat on the Louisiana shelf is affected by bottom dissolved oxygen (DO), which declines to hypoxic levels (≤ 2 mg L-1) across much of the inner (6–34 m depth) Louisiana shelf during the summer months, when the shrimp fishing season is at its peak. Seasonal forecasts of the spatial distributions of shrimp are potentially useful for both shrimpers and managers of the fishery.

A forecasting model of shrimp spatial distributions has been developed for the Louisiana continental shelf by a team that includes researchers at North Carolina State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This effort represents the first attempt to link an operational hypoxia forecast to the dynamics of a managed fishery resource. Separate seasonal forecasts for Brown Shrimp and White Shrimp were developed for the early portion of the shrimping season (June 15 – July 15). Find the forecast details below!