Research

Abstract

Fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa remains below recommended levels, contributing to low yields and persistent poverty. This study investigates whether weather-induced recency bias, a tendency to overweigh recent weather events when forming expectations about future conditions, affects fertilizer use among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using nationally representative household panel data matched with geo-referenced weather and soil data, I find that recent weather shocks significantly influence fertilizer decisions, and the effect goes beyond what can be explained with a liquidity constraint. This effect is negatively asymmetric: negative shocks reduce fertilizer use, while positive shocks do not generate equivalent increases. In addition, I find that this behavioral bias explains much of the effect of previous season's weather shocks on fertilizer use, which has been mainly attributed to liquidity constraints following adverse weather conditions. These results suggest that recency effect could partly explain low fertilizer use in SSA. Improving access to accurate and timely weather forecasts can help farmers make more efficient input decisions and increase productivity.