South China Sea Conflict

The Evolution of Philippine Foreign Policy and the Quest for Sovereignty: Shifting Tides

by: Dr. Charlie M. Saquian

April 24, 2024

The foreign policy landscape of the Philippines has undergone significant transformations in recent years, marked by the contrasting approaches of two administrations towards the geopolitical giants of China and the United States. The tenure of former President Rodrigo Duterte was characterized by a pivot towards China, a move that stirred the waters of the South China Sea and beyond.

Duterte's China-Friendly Stance

When President Duterte assumed office in 2016, he signaled a departure from the Philippines' traditionally US-aligned foreign policy, favoring closer ties with China and Russia¹. This shift was part of Duterte's broader strategy to diversify the country's international relations and reduce dependence on Western powers. His administration sought to engage with China despite the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, hoping to reap economic benefits and maintain regional stability².

However, the relationship was not without its challenges. China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, including incidents around Thitu Island and the presence of Chinese fishing boats at Whitsun Reef, tested the limits of Duterte's China-friendly approach¹. Despite these tensions, Duterte's policy remained largely unchanged throughout his term, leaving a complex legacy for his successor to navigate.

Marcos Jr.'s Strategic Pivot

The election of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. marked a strategic pivot back to the Philippines' long-standing ally, the United States¹³. This realignment was driven by the need to uphold regional peace, defend sovereignty, and protect Philippine interests as enshrined in the nation's constitution. The current administration has recognized the importance of the US-Philippines alliance, particularly in the face of China's continued military expansionism in the disputed islands within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)¹⁶.

Global Support for a Rules-Based Order

In the broader context of Indo-Pacific geopolitics, the G7 nations have expressed their commitment to maintaining a free and open region, grounded in respect for international law⁴. This collective stance underscores the importance of freedom of navigation, peace, security, and sovereignty, principles that are central to the rules-based international order. Countries such as Australia, France, the UK, and New Zealand have also shown support for these ideals, reinforcing the regional response to China's activities⁵.

Balikatan Exercises: A Show of Collective Defense

Amidst these diplomatic currents, the Balikatan Exercises 2024 stand out as a significant demonstration of collective defense capabilities⁹. With over 16,000 personnel involved, these exercises, the most expansive to date, serve as a deterrent to any form of military expansionism in the region. They symbolize the joint resolve of the Philippines and its allies to safeguard the freedoms enshrined in international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Conclusion

The foreign policy of the Philippines is a testament to the nation's pursuit of sovereignty and a balanced approach to international relations. As the country navigates the complex waters of the South China Sea and the shifting dynamics of global power, it continues to seek partnerships that bolster its strategic interests while adhering to the principles of international law. The evolving alliance with the United States, coupled with the support of the G7 and regional partners, reflects the Philippines' commitment to a peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific region.

This article provides an overview of the recent shifts in Philippine foreign policy, highlighting the challenges and strategic decisions that have shaped the nation's stance in the Indo-Pacific region. It underscores the importance of alliances, collective security measures, and adherence to international law in addressing regional disputes and maintaining sovereignty.

References

(1) Duterte's Dalliance with China Is Over | RAND. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2021/11/dutertes-dalliance-with-china-is-over.html.

(2) Duterte Legacy: China Relations And Foreign Policy. https://theaseanpost.com/article/duterte-legacy-china-relations-and-foreign-policy.

(3) The Return of the Marcoses and the U.S.-Philippines Alliance - CSIS. https://www.csis.org/analysis/return-marcoses-and-us-philippines-alliance.

(4) A RENEWED PHILIPPINES-US ALLIANCE - ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2023-40-a-strategic-reset-the-philippines-united-states-alliance-under-president-marcos-jr-by-aries-a-arugay-and-ian-storey/.

(5) G7 takes stand against China’s “economic coercion” - BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65662720.

(6) FACT SHEET: The 2023 G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/21/fact-sheet-the-2023-g7-summit-in-hiroshima-japan/.

(7) Philippine, U.S. Troops to Kick Off Exercise Balikatan 2024. https://ph.usembassy.gov/philippine-u-s-troops-to-kick-off-exercise-balikatan-2024/.

(8) Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte claims China threatened war over South .... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3258816/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-claims-china-threatened-war-over-south-china-sea-if-status-quo-not-kept.

(9) G7, ASEAN declare 'shared interest' in free and open Indo-Pacific. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/shared-12132021143212.html.

(10) G7 Foreign Ministers Pledge Support for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific .... https://www.goodreturns.in/news/g7-foreign-ministers-commitment-indo-pacific-011-1342723.html.

(11) 'Ready to cooperate': G7 foreign ministers advocate free, open Indo-Pacific. https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/g7-foreign-ministers-reiterate-their-commitment-for-free-open-indo-pacific-124042000737_1.html.

(12) Balikatan 2024 Drills Prioritize South China Sea, Luzon Strait. https://news.usni.org/2024/04/22/balikatan-2024-drills-prioritize-south-china-sea-luzon-strait.

(13) China sounds warning after Philippines and US announce most expansive .... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/18/china-warning-balikatan-exercise-2024-philippines-us-military-drills.

(14) Balikatan - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balikatan.

(15) The PH-US Alliance and US-China Rivalry: A Historical Perspective. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/the-ph-us-alliance-and-us-china-rivalry-a-historical-perspective/.

(16) Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. - TIME. https://time.com/6965183/ferdinand-bongbong-marcos-2/.

(17) The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia | RAND. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/02/the-philippines-is-americas-new-star-ally-in-asia.html.

The G7's Role in Shaping Global Economic and Security Dynamics in South China Sea Dispute

April 21, 2024

The Group of Seven (G7: consisting of the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom), an informal bloc of advanced economies, plays a pivotal role in shaping the global economic and security landscape. This article explores the profound influence of the G7 on international relations, with a focus on its impact on the global economy, military strategies within NATO, and geopolitical dynamics in the South China Sea.

1. Economic Influence: Steering the Global Economy

The G7's economic policies and decisions have significant implications for international trade, financial stability, and economic development. As a collective, the G7 wields considerable economic power, accounting for about half of the global net wealth³. This economic clout enables the G7 to address critical issues that affect the global economy, such as corporate taxation, sanctions, and infrastructure programs¹. The group's ability to coordinate global policy is crucial in managing economic challenges and fostering international economic governance².

2. Military and NATO: A United Front for Collective Security

The G7 nations play a crucial role in global military strategies and defense policies through their leadership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Their coordinated actions within NATO enhance collective security and serve as a deterrent to potential threats¹ ⁷. The G7's commitment to defending the rules-based international system against aggression is exemplified by their unified stance and strategic actions, particularly in response to crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine¹ ⁷.

3. South China Sea: Upholding International Law and Regional Stability

In the South China Sea, the G7's support for freedom of navigation, overflight, and the peaceful resolution of disputes promotes a rules-based international order⁶ ⁷. The G7's stance is crucial in maintaining regional stability and deterring unilateral actions that could escalate tensions. The Philippines, a key player in the region, has expressed appreciation for the G7's rejection of China’s “baseless and expansive” claims, aligning with the G7's vision of a stable and secure Indo-Pacific region⁶ ⁷.

4. Solidarity and Strategy: Diplomatic Support and Balikatan Exercises

The G7's strategic actions are not limited to economic frameworks and military alliances; they also extend to diplomatic support and participation in military exercises. The Balikatan exercises, conducted by the Philippines and the U.S., with support from allies like the G7 nations, underscore the commitment to regional security and the importance of interoperability among forces¹ ². These exercises demonstrate the G7's support for allies and their readiness to address security challenges in the South China Sea.

In conclusion, the G7's strategic actions within economic frameworks, military alliances like NATO, and geopolitical hotspots like the South China Sea demonstrate their pivotal role in shaping the international landscape. The G7's influence extends beyond mere discussions; it translates into tangible actions that reinforce international law, promote stability, and ensure a collective response to global challenges.

Authored by Dr. Charlie M. Saquian/ News e Amen 4/2024

Key Words:

G7 (Group of Seven), Global Economy, International Trade, Financial Stability, Economic Development, Collective Economic Power, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), Global Military Strategies, Defense Policies, Collective Security, Deterrence, South China Sea, Freedom of Navigation, Rules-Based International Order, Regional Stability, Unilateral Actions, Diplomatic Support, Balikatan Exercises, Interoperability, Geopolitical Power, International Relations, Security Dynamics

References:

(1) G7's Global Economic Influence | FXGlobe. https://fxglobe.com/the-power-of-g7-and-its-influence-on-global-economies/.

(2) What Does the G7 Do? | Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-does-g7-do.

(3) What is G7? Purpose, History and Influence. https://internationalrelationscareers.com/issues/what-is-g7-purpose-history-influence/.

(4) The G7, NATO, and the Future of the West - Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/blog/g7-nato-and-future-west.

(5) PH welcomes G7 position vs. ‘baseless' China claims in SCS. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1223079.

(6) Philippines thanks G7's support in rejecting China's 'baseless .... https://www.rappler.com/philippines/g7-unclos-support-china-baseless-expansive-claims-disputed-sea/.

(7) Philippine, U.S. Troops to Kick Off Exercise Balikatan 2024. https://ph.usembassy.gov/philippine-u-s-troops-to-kick-off-exercise-balikatan-2024/.

(8) Canada and the G7 - Affaires mondiales Canada. https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/g7/index.aspx?lang=eng.

(9) The G7 Summit 2023 Is Coming. Here’s Why All Global ... - Global Citizen. https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/what-is-the-g7-summit/.

(10) Phl welcomes G7 support against China's South China Sea claims. https://tribune.net.ph/2024/04/21/phl-welcomes-g7-support-against-chinas-south-china-sea-claims.

(11) G7 declares support for South China Sea arbitral ruling. https://bing.com/search?q=G7+stance+on+South+China+Sea.

(12) G7 declares support for South China Sea arbitral ruling. https://qa.philstar.com/headlines/2023/05/21/2267839/g7-declares-support-south-china-sea-arbitral-ruling.

(13) G7 declares support for South China Sea arbitral ruling. https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/05/21/2267839/g7-declares-support-south-china-sea-arbitral-ruling.

(14) U.S., Philippines Kick off Largest-ever Balikatan Exercise as Defense .... https://news.usni.org/2023/04/11/u-s-philippines-kick-off-largest-ever-balikatan-exercise-as-defense-foreign-affairs-leaders-meet-in-washington.

(15) US and Philippines launch biggest joint drills yet in South China Sea. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/11/us-and-philippines-launch-biggest-joint-drills-yet-in-south-china-sea.

(16) US, Philippines conclude 37th Balikatan joint exercises. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/827853/us-philippines-conclude-37th-balikatan-joint-exercises/story/.

(17) Balikatan - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balikatan.

(18) G7 to announce long-term Ukraine security package at Nato summit - BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66172421.

(19) NATO Secretary General participates in G7 Foreign Ministers’ meeting. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_194318.htm.

(20) Getty Images. https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-logo-of-the-upcoming-g7-finance-ministers-and-central-news-photo/1253483275.

Strategic Balance or Escalation? Assessing Beijing’s Potential Response to US Missile Deployment in the Philippines

April 22, 2024

Abstract:

The recent deployment of the US Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system in the Philippines marks a significant shift in the military dynamics of the South China Sea. This strategic move, part of joint military exercises, has raised questions about the potential for increased militarization by Beijing in response. This journal article examines the geopolitical implications of the US action and analyzes the likelihood of a Chinese military ramp-up in the region.

Introduction:

The South China Sea has long been a flashpoint for regional tensions, with multiple nations asserting overlapping territorial claims. The deployment of the US MRC system in the Philippines, capable of striking targets within a range of 500 to 2,000 kilometers, represents a new chapter in the power play between the US and China. This development could potentially alter the strategic calculus for Beijing, which has consistently maintained a robust presence in the area.

Background:

The MRC system's deployment comes amid escalating activities by the Chinese military in the South China Sea, including the construction of artificial islands and the fortification of existing territorial claims. The US and its allies view these actions as aggressive and destabilizing, prompting a response to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Analysis:

Beijing has publicly rebuked the deployment, describing it as a provocative act that undermines regional stability⁶. Chinese officials have warned that such actions could lead to greater insecurity, urging the US to respect the security concerns of other countries⁹. The strategic deployment of the MRC system by the US is seen as a direct challenge to China's military capabilities and may compel Beijing to consider countermeasures.

Discussion:

The possibility of Beijing ramping up its militarization efforts in response to the US deployment is a subject of intense debate among analysts. Some argue that China may accelerate its military build-up in the region to assert its claims and deter further US military presence. Others suggest that Beijing may pursue a more cautious approach, avoiding direct confrontation and instead focusing on diplomatic channels to address its concerns.

Conclusion:

The deployment of the US missile system in the Philippines is a significant development in the South China Sea's complex security landscape. While it serves as a deterrent against potential aggression, it also carries the risk of provoking a military response from Beijing. The international community must closely monitor the situation to prevent an arms race and maintain regional stability.

Keywords:

South China Sea, US military deployment, Beijing militarization, regional stability, geopolitical dynamics.

References:

(1) China rebukes US deployment of missiles in Indo-Pacific. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-rebukes-us-deployment-of-missiles-in-indo-pacific-/7576715.html.

(2) South China Sea: will Beijing ramp up militarisation after US missile .... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3259453/south-china-sea-will-beijing-ramp-military-presence-after-very-strategic-deployment-us-missile.

(3) ‘Mega drills’: US and Philippines test missile deployments to counter China. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/mega-drills-us-and-philippines-test-missile-deployments-to-counter-china/ar-AA1nfXML.

(4) South China Sea: will Beijing ramp up militarisation after US missile system deployed in the Philippines?. https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/south-china-sea-will-beijing-ramp-up-militarisation-after-us-missile-system-deployed-in-the-philippines/ar-AA1ndRaI.

(5) US Army deploys midrange missile for first time in Philippines. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-army-deploys-midrange-missile-for-first-time-in-philippines/ar-BB1lJDud.

(6) US Army deploys midrange missile for first time in Philippines. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/04/16/us-army-deploys-midrange-missile-for-first-time-in-philippines/.

(7) U.S. Army Deploys New Missile Launcher to the Philippines. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/u-s-army-deploys-new-missile-launcher-to-the-philippines/.

(8) Beijing slams US-Japan-Philippines summit, says S. China Sea actions .... https://www.yahoo.com/news/beijing-slams-us-japan-philippines-080927445.html.

(9) China sounds warning after Philippines and US announce most expansive .... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/18/china-warning-balikatan-exercise-2024-philippines-us-military-drills.

(10) China slams Philippines, US 'provocative military activities' in South .... https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2024/01/04/2323431/china-slams-philippines-us-provocative-military-activities-south-china-sea.

The Chronicles of Nations: On the Seas of Contention

April 22, 2024

This is a creative reinterpretation of the geopolitical analysis in the style of the King James Version (KJV).

The Chronicles of Nations: On the Seas of Contention

The Proclamation

In the days of great ships and iron birds, there arose a contention upon the waters of the East, where the sea doth touch the shores of ancient lands. The mighty nation of the North, with its dragons and emperors, laid claim to the isles of the sea, and upon them did set their standards and their might.

The Response

And lo, from across the vast ocean, the eagle of the West did take heed and sent forth its own iron birds and thunderous engines of war. They alighted upon the shores of the isles allied with the eagle, and there did they make ready to stand against the dragons of the North.

The Counsel

Wise men and scribes beheld these acts and with furrowed brows did counsel prudence. For the escalation of might and the rattling of sabers bringeth not peace but the whispers of war. And the people of the lands, both great and small, watched with bated breath, praying for the stillness of swords and the wisdom of the ages.

The Hope

Yet amidst the tumult and the roar of engines, there remained a flicker of hope. For the nations of the world, in their assemblies and councils, spake of laws and rights, of the freedom of seas and the brotherhood of man. And there was talk of parleys and treaties, of dialogues and understandings, that peace might once more reign upon the waters and the lands.

The Charge

Let it be known that the chronicles of nations are writ not only by the might of arms but by the courage of peace. And let the leaders of lands take up the mantle of wisdom, to seek not dominion but harmony, and to remember the common weal of all the earth's children.

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