Abstract:

The Western Pacific is witnessing a critical juncture in global affairs, with an increasingly assertive China challenging the United States' supremacy. China's actions in the South and East China Seas, including territorial claims, militarization of islands, and information warfare, have disrupted regional peace and stability. Simultaneously, North Korea's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal poses additional risks. To maintain peace and freedom of navigation, a joint deterrence strategy by U.S. allies is essential. This article explores strategic options and proposes an Integrated Deterrence 2.0 approach that leverages alliances and partnerships while minimizing the risk of large-scale conflict.

Introduction

For centuries, rising great powers have clashed with established ones, often leading to military conflict. The United States and China find themselves in such a situation, with China challenging the liberal international order maintained by the U.S. since World War II. China's core interests in the Western Pacific diverge from those of the U.S., leading to escalating tensions. Meanwhile, North Korea's nuclear ambitions further complicate the regional security landscape. This article examines how joint deterrence can address these challenges.

China's Military Aggression

Offensively, China has challenged U.S. allies' sovereignty and freedom of navigation in the South and East China Seas. Its actions include claiming additional maritime territory, establishing air defense zones, militarizing artificial islands, and engaging in information warfare. These actions undermine regional stability and threaten the rules-based order.

North Korea's Nuclear Threat

North Korea's nuclear program remains a significant concern. The U.S. intelligence community warns that China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and aims to double its stockpile within a decade. The potential for simultaneous conflict with both China and North Korea necessitates a robust military response strategy.

Strategic Options

1.Traditional Deterrence

   - Strengthening U.S. military presence in the region.

   - Reaffirming security commitments to allies.

   - Demonstrating resolve through joint military exercises.

   - However, this approach risks escalation and may not effectively deter China's assertiveness.

2. Integrated Deterrence 2.0

   - Building upon the existing Integrated Deterrence strategy.

   - Leveraging U.S. strategic alliances and partnerships globally.

   - Coordinating joint military efforts among allies to deter Chinese aggression.

   - Emphasizing economic, diplomatic, and informational tools alongside military capabilities.

   - Reducing the likelihood of large-scale conflict while maintaining deterrence.

Conclusion

Integrated Deterrence 2.0 offers a comprehensive approach to secure the Western Pacific. By combining military strength with economic and diplomatic measures, the U.S. and its allies can deter China's illegal assertions and North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Regional peace and freedom of navigation depend on collective action and strategic cooperation.

References

1. Faulhaber, A. (n.d.). Deterring China’s Military Aggression: DoD Strategic Options for Securing the Western Pacific. *Yale Journal of International Affairs. 

2. U.S. Official Says Allies Acting Together to Deter China. (n.d.). *U.S. Department of Defense. 

3. New Report Warns U.S., Allies of Two Front War with China, North Korea. (2023, August 22). USNI News. 

4. Military Confrontation in the South China Sea. (2020, May 21). *Council on Foreign Relations. 

5. Understanding the Risks and Realities of China’s Nuclear Forces. (2021, June). Arms Control Today. 

In the context of Integrated Deterrence 2.0, the United States relies on a network of key allies and partners to collectively deter Chinese aggression and maintain stability in the Western Pacific. Let's explore some of these critical allies:

1. Japan

   - Japan is a longstanding U.S. ally in the region.

   - The U.S.-Japan security alliance, established after World War II, remains robust.

   - Japan hosts several U.S. military bases and plays a crucial role in regional security.

2. South Korea

   - The U.S.-South Korea alliance is essential for deterring North Korean aggression and maintaining stability.

   - South Korea hosts U.S. troops and collaborates closely on defense matters.

3. Australia

   - Australia is a key partner in the Indo-Pacific region.

   - The U.S.-Australia alliance involves joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and cooperation on regional security challenges.

4. Taiwan

   - While the U.S. does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, it maintains strong unofficial ties.

   - Taiwan's security is critical to regional stability, and the U.S. provides arms sales and other support.

5. Philippines

   - The U.S.-Philippines alliance has a long history, although it has faced challenges in recent years.

   - The Philippines hosts U.S. military facilities and plays a role in regional maritime security.

6. India

   - India is not a formal treaty ally but is increasingly seen as a strategic partner.

   - The U.S.-India relationship focuses on shared interests in countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Remember that Integrated Deterrence 2.0 extends beyond these specific allies. It emphasizes cooperation with a broader network of nations, including those in Europe and other regions, to collectively address the challenges posed by China's assertiveness[1]. 

ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) plays a significant role in the Integrated Deterrence 2.0 strategy, which aims to deter China's military aggression while maintaining stability in the Western Pacific¹. Let's explore how ASEAN fits into this context:

1. Regional Context

   - ASEAN is a regional intergovernmental organization comprising ten Southeast Asian countries.

   - Its members include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

   - ASEAN serves as a platform for dialogue, cooperation, and collaboration among its member states.

2. ASEAN's Role in Integrated Deterrence 2.0

   - Within the strategy of Integrated Deterrence, increased partnerships with American allies and partners play a central role in defending against both acute and strategic threats posed by China and Russia².

   - ASEAN's geographical location places it at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region, where tensions between major powers are high.

   - ASEAN's collective security mechanisms, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), provide opportunities for dialogue and confidence-building among regional actors.

   - By engaging with ASEAN, the United States can promote stability, prevent conflict escalation, and foster cooperation on shared security challenges.

3. Challenges and Opportunities

   - ASEAN faces challenges in maintaining unity and consensus due to differing interests among its member states.

   - However, ASEAN's commitment to the principles of non-interference, dialogue, and peaceful resolution of disputes aligns with the goals of Integrated Deterrence.

   - The U.S. can leverage ASEAN platforms to address regional security concerns, including maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

4. Cooperation and Diplomacy

   - Integrated Deterrence 2.0 emphasizes whole-of-government efforts, including diplomacy, economic engagement, and military cooperation³.

   - The U.S. can work with ASEAN to enhance maritime domain awareness, promote rules-based order, and counter coercive actions by China.

In summary, ASEAN's active participation and collaboration are essential for achieving the objectives of Integrated Deterrence 2.0. By engaging with ASEAN member states, the U.S. can strengthen regional security and contribute to stability in the Indo-Pacific¹ ². 

References

(1) Deterring China’s Military Aggression: DoD Strategic Options for .... https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/deterring-chinas-military-aggression.

(2) Allies, Partners Central to U.S. Integrated Deterrence Effort. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3315827/allies-partners-central-to-us-integrated-deterrence-effort/.

(3) A Sum Greater Than Its Parts: Integrated Deterrence and Strategic .... https://www.mitre.org/news-insights/publication/sum-greater-its-parts-integrated-deterrence-and-strategic-competition.

(4) DOD Official Says Concept of Integrated Deterrence Is Call to Action. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2791589/dod-official-says-concept-of-integrated-deterrence-is-call-to-action/.

The United States has undertaken several initiatives with ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries to strengthen cooperation and deepen ties. Here are some notable initiatives:

1. U.S.-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

   - In 2022, the U.S. and ASEAN upgraded their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). This elevated partnership aims to enhance collaboration across various domains.

   - The 2024 U.S. budget requested an unprecedented $1.2 billion in economic, development, and security assistance for Southeast Asian nations, along with $90 million dedicated solely to engagement with ASEAN and efforts to strengthen ASEAN institutions¹.

   - Key areas of focus include maritime cooperation, connectivity, sustainable development goals, and economic cooperation².

2. U.S.-ASEAN Center

   - The U.S. and ASEAN leaders have announced their intent to establish a U.S.-ASEAN Center in Washington, DC. This center, facilitated through a public-private partnership, will serve as a hub for ASEAN's engagement with the United States.

   - The center's activities may include facilitating official U.S.-ASEAN engagements, enhancing connectivity with the U.S. private sector (especially small and medium-sized enterprises), arranging cultural and educational activities, conducting research, and facilitating capacity-building programs¹.

3. Digital Workplan 2023-2025

   - The U.S. and ASEAN have adopted a Digital Workplan to support ASEAN's digital development goals. This workplan focuses on information and communication technology, digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, and digital skills development³.

4. People-to-People Ties

   - The U.S. is committed to deepening people-to-people ties with ASEAN. Initiatives include programs at American Spaces in ASEAN countries, the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI), and connections forged through U.S. visas granted to Southeast Asian travelers⁴.

These initiatives demonstrate the U.S.'s enduring commitment to Southeast Asia and ASEAN centrality, fostering cooperation and benefiting the people of both regions¹ ⁴. 

References

(1) U.S.-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, One Year. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/05/fact-sheet-u-s-asean-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-one-year-on/.

(2) President Biden and ASEAN Leaders Launch the U.S.-ASEAN .... https://asean.usmission.gov/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-asean-leaders-launch-the-u-s-asean-comprehensive-strategic-partnership/.

(3) U.S.-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, One Year. https://bing.com/search?q=U.S.+initiatives+with+ASEAN+countries.

(4) U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit in Washington, DC. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/12/fact-sheet-u-s-asean-special-summit-in-washington-dc/.

(5) Deepening the United States-ASEAN People-to-People .... https://asean.usmission.gov/fact-sheet-deepening-the-united-states-asean-people-to-people-relationship/.