Baseline Demand Profile

Determining the baseline demand profile for the businesses within the Newmilns industrial estate was important, before conducting any type of analysis for the project, [1],[2],[3]. The purpose of this is, it provided a reference point for understanding the current energy consumption patterns and would help identify how it could be made more efficient. Assessing those patterns over a given period of time, helped identify the most energy intensive processes and peak hourly demands, which was vital to ensure that any energy system that would be recommended was correctly sized to meet the energy demand of the industrial estate. First, the total consumption was summarised, then the cost and carbon emissions were calculated; shown in Figure 1 to Figure 4.

The summarised demand profile was produced by adopting a generic demand profile of half-hourly time-series data, that was similar to the industrial units profile. It was then scaled to match the summarised consumption supplied to the team. The percentages of the monthly electricity vs. gas demand was then calculated, shown in Figure 1.

Upon calculating the monthly demand, the daily energy consumption was calculated, shown in Figure 2.

Calculating the daily demand profile then allowed the team to calculate the combined total peak hourly demand, shown in Figure 3.

References:
[1] Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy. Steps to Develop a Baseline. US Department of Energy. https://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/resources/pdfs/leaderbaselinestepsguideline.pdf   [Accessed 7 May 2023]. 

[2] Qaisar Irfan, and Qianchuan Zhao. Energy baseline prediction for buildings: A review. 7(.), pp.1-12. Results in Control and Optimisation. 2019. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666720722000194 [Accessed 7 May 2023]. 

[3] Crețu, Mihaela, et al.Modelling and eval of the Baseline Energy Consumption and the KeyPerformance Indicators in University of Cluj-Napoca..(.),pp.1-12.  IET Renewable Power Generation. 2022. https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1049/iet-rpg.2020.0096 [Accessed 7 May 2023].