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What is Junior Probability about?
What is Junior Probability about?
The Junior Probability topic is all about giving young people a set of maths and logic skills so they can solve real world problems.
By the end of the Probability topic, students should know how to:
By the end of the Probability topic, students should know how to:
recognise and pose investigative questions, anticipate what will happen, and state assumptions
plan probability experiments that use real data to create probability distributions for numerical variables, run simulations, and record data
describe probability distributions including those involving simple, joint, and conditional probabilities
identify why claims about chance-based situations might not be valid and consider improvements to how the claim was investigated.
conduct large-scale simulations to model probability outcomes
predict and explain effects caused by changing the parameters of probability distributions
estimate and calculate probabilities of independent, combined, and conditional events
calculate, interpret, and evaluate risk
calculate, interpret, and evaluate the expected value of a numerical random variable
make and critique claims for reports on polls by taking into account the informal margin of error and considering possible sources of bias.
The following page covers each of these skills.
Posing Questions
Posing Questions
Students should know how to recognise and pose investigative questions, anticipate what will happen, and state assumptions.
To learn to do this, watch these videos here.
Basic Probability
Writing Probability
Probability Assumptions
Planning Probability Experiments
Planning Probability Experiments
Students should know how to plan probability experiments that use real data to create probability distributions for numerical variables, run simulations, and record data.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Probability Experiments
Experimental Probability
Experimental Probability Explained
Describing Probabilities
Describing Probabilities
Students should know how to describe probability distributions including those involving simple, joint, and conditional probabilities.
To learn to do this, watch these videos here.
Describing Probability
Describing Probability Distributions
Joint and Conditional Probability Explained
Valid Claims About Chance
Valid Claims About Chance
Students should know how to identify why claims about chance-based situations might not be valid and consider improvements to how the claim was investigated.
To learn to do this, watch these videos here.
Probability - True or False
Basic Probability - Identifying True or False
Using probabilities to make decisions
Large Scale Simulations
Large Scale Simulations
Students should know how to conduct large-scale simulations to model probability outcomes.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Predicting and Explaining Changing Parameters
Predicting and Explaining Changing Parameters
Students should know how to predict and explain effects caused by changing the parameters of probability distributions.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Independent, Combined, and Conditional Events
Independent, Combined, and Conditional Events
Students should know how to estimate and calculate probabilities of independent, combined, and conditional events.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Risk
Risk
Students should know how to calculate, interpret, and evaluate risk.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Numerical Random Variable
Numerical Random Variable
Students should know how to calculate, interpret, and evaluate the expected value of a numerical random variable.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Critiquing Claims
Critiquing Claims
Students should know how to make and critique claims for reports on polls.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Margin Of Error
Margin Of Error
Students should know how to make and critique claims for reports on polls by taking into account the informal margin of error.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Sources of Bias
Sources of Bias
Students should know how to make and critique claims for reports on polls by considering possible sources of bias.
To learn to do this, watch this video here.
Check Your Understanding
Check Your Understanding
You can check your understanding of the Probability topic with the task below.
Probability Assessment.pdfProbability Practice Assessment
Probability Practice Assessment
Probability Assessment Answers.pdfProbability Practice Assessment Answers
Probability Practice Assessment Answers
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