Working Papers:
* Presentation by a co-author. † Poster session. Includes scheduled conference.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in a Global Economy (Job Market Paper) Updated: 2025 March
A consensus in the small open economy literature is that optimal monetary policy and foreign exchange intervention (FXI) separately stabilize inflation and the exchange rate. I develop an analytically tractable two-country framework where FXI balances internal and external objectives. Under international policy cooperation, optimal FXI mitigates the trade-off between domestic inflation and demand faced by monetary authorities, allowing them to stabilize inflation with moderate changes in the interest rate. At the same time, optimal FXI targets world demand since it affects international prices. The model thus suggests an interaction between conventional monetary policy and unconventional exchange rate policy tools and provides a rationale for their combined use. I further show that FXI contributes more to domestic inflation stabilization when all goods traded in international markets are priced in dollars.
Presentations: (2024) EEA Annual Congress, Erasmus School of Economics; ES North American Summer Meeting, Vanderbilt University; 5th Emerging Market Macroeconomics Workshop, University of Poitiers; MMF PhD Conference, University of Surrey; MMF Annual Conference, University of Manchester; Doctoral Workshop on Quantitative Dynamic Macroeconomics, Aix-Marseille School of Economics; Global Currencies Conference, Banque de France; Workshop for Young Macroeconomists, Hitotsubashi University (online); Cambridge PhD Macroeconomics Workshop & JBS Lunch Seminar
(2025) Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference, The University of Glasgow; RES Annual Conference, University of Birmingham
Awarded the Sir Alec Cairncross Prize for the best paper presented by early-career researchers, 2025 SES Annual Conference
Intervening against the Fed (Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Financial Economics) Updated: 2024 August
Joint with Alexander Rodnyansky and Yannick Timmer
Paper Presentation Slide Poster
This paper studies the effectiveness and mechanism of foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) for mitigating US monetary policy spillovers. For identification, we combine deviations from a daily FXI policy rule with high-frequency US monetary policy shocks, daily exchange rates, firm-level stock prices, and firm-level balance sheet variables across multiple countries. We first present evidence that, without interventions, contractionary US monetary policy shocks spill over through a balance sheet channel: foreign exchange rates depreciate and stock prices fall, driven by those firms with US dollar debt. However, when countries counter-intervene, the spillover of a US monetary policy tightening is muted. FXIs entirely offset the depreciation of the domestic exchange rate and the reduction in stock prices for firms with US dollar debt, suggesting that ``intervening against the Fed'' protects economies from the adverse spillovers of US monetary policy tightening via the balance sheet channel of exchange rates.
Presentations: (2023) New York Fed 2nd Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference; 9th BdF-BoE-BdI International Macroeconomics Workshop; EEA Annual Congress, Barcelona School of Economics; Econometric Society Asia Meeting, Tsinghua University (online); MMF Annual Conference, University of Portsmouth; Workshop on Empirical Macroeconomics, Ghent University†; SED annual meeting, Cartagena*; 1st annual conference of the Banco Central do Brazil*; IMIM Seminar; IMF; Federal Reserve Board, Cambridge JBS Lunch Seminar and CERF Cavalcade
(2024) AEA Annual Meeting, San Antonio†; Joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference; 2nd ERSA-CEPR Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets*; University of Cape Town*
(2025) University of Reading, Asian Development Bank*
Presentation Video and Conference Report at the New York Fed
Financial Market Globalization and Asset Price Bubbles (Now Revising)
Abstract: We construct a two-country model of rational bubbles with asymmetric degrees of financial development. We show that whether financial globalization gives rise to bubbles crucially depends on the levels of financial development in the two countries. In economies with either developed or underdeveloped financial market relative to the foreign one, bubbles cannot arise under financial autarky but they can arise under financial globalization. Moreover, unlike previous literature, bubbles in sufficiently well-developed financial markets lead to welfare losses in other countries.
Presentations: (2019) Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Perth; Japan Economic Association Spring Meeting, Musashi University†; The University of Tokyo
(2020) Econometric Society World Congress, Bocconi University (online); EEA Annual Congress, Rotterdam (online);
Awarded honorable mention for best student paper award in finance, The University of Cambridge
Work in Progress
FX Intervention, CIP, and UIP Deviations
Joint with Mai Chi Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and Rui Mano
Abstract: This project empirically studies the effects of FX interventions in spot and forward markets on the deviations from covered and uncovered interest rate parities.