Research

Working Papers

1. [Job Market Paper] Managing Emerging Market Currency Risk, with Haonan Zhou, [SSRN][Job Market Paper Version]

Presentations: SFS Cavalcade NA (2026, Scheduled), Tsinghua PBCSF (2026), Fudan ISF (2026), SUFE DAFI (2026), PKU NSD (2025), CEPR International Macro & Finance Program (2025), IMF (2025), Cambridge SFX (2025), CICF (2025), SED (2025), PKU IMFC9 (2025), HKU-CUHK IFS (2025), JHU SAIS (2025), Columbia Business School (2023, 2024, 2025), Princeton University (2023)

Abstract: We analyze U.S. bond funds’ currency forward positions and document that the currency risk exposure of foreign investors in emerging markets (EM) is substantially greater than the estimates based on bond holdings alone, and varies by fund objectives. Unique to emerging markets, funds use forwards to overcome capital control and reduce portfolio deviations from benchmarks, effectively taking directional exposure in the forward market. These findings motivate an equilibrium model featuring investor heterogeneity, inelastic hedging demand, capital control and forward market segmentation. The model rationalizes key empirical regularities in EM currency forward premia and highlights the impact of policy barriers.

2. From Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending, with Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, and Melih Firat, [IMF WP], R&R at American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Presentations:  European Stability Mechanism (2025), Central Bank Research Association Annual Conference (2025), EEA (2025), Fed Board (2025), Midwest Macro (2025), IMF (2024, 2025).

Featured in: 2025 G20 Global Financial Stability Conference

Abstract: The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important yet underexplored questions about the transmission of monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policy (MaPP) to the real economy. Using syndicated loan data, we examine the impact of both MP and MaPP shocks on credit supply to nonfinancial firms. We show that nonbanks act as shock absorbers, cushioning firms - particularly those with preexisting nonbank relationships - from policy tightening. These shocks drive credit away from weaker banks toward nonbanks, raising concerns about credit quality. We also provide evidence that MaPPs on banks can lead them, especially weaker ones, to shift lending to nonbanks and away from nonfinancial corporations. This allows nonbanks to expand their footprint in corporate credit markets. Our findings highlight that the side effects of tighter MP and MaPP are non-trivial as credit intermediation migrates to a sector largely outside the regulatory perimeter, posing new financial stability risks.

Policy Writings

1.  From Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending, with Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, and Melih Firat,  [VOXEU]

A non-technical policy note on the growing role of nonbank financial institutions in corporate credit intermediation and how they differ from traditional banks in lending behaviors in response to monetary and macroprudential policy shocks.