Peer-reviewed Journal Publications
“Policy Contagion: What Do We Learn from Financial Reforms?” with Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu and Tao Zha, Jan 2025, accepted, International Economic Review.
“Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors” with Jie April Cai and Ana Maria Santacreu. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 14, No. 1, January 2022, pp. 104-45.
“China’s Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-level Evidence” with Jing Fang and Hui He, Journal of Development Economics, Vol 147, November 2020, 102561.
“Growth Through Intersectoral Knowledge Linkages” with Jie April Cai, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 86, No. 5 (310), October 2019, pp. 1827-1866
“Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession” with Vance Martin, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 107, November 2019, pp. 77-95.
“International Transmission with Heterogeneous Sectors” with Keyu Jin, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol 10, No. 4, October 2018, pp. 36-76.
“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization” with Romain Duval, Richa Saraf and Dulani Seneviratne, Journal of International Economics, Vol 99, March 2016, pp. 251-262.
“Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions” with Emine Boz and Bora Durdu, Journal of Money, Banking and Credit, Vol. 47, No. 1, February 2015, pp. 31-72.
“Frequency Bias in Consumers’ Perceptions of Inflation: An Experimental Study” with Sotiris Georganas and Paul Healy, European Economic Review, Vol 67, April 2014, pp. 144-158. Also in NPR, vox.com, Marketplace, The Conversation, also see here in Spanish and Danish
“Transaction Costs, Nonfundamental Uncertainty, and Exchange Rate Disconnect”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol 18, No. 8, December 2014, pp. 1751 - 1772.
“Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: The Role of Interest Rates”, 2011, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol 14, Issue 4, October 2011, pp. 686-704.
Other Publications
Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Database, with Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao and Robert Zymek, IMF Working Paper, No. 2025/163, Aug 2025.
"Geoeconomic Fragmentation in Services? Evidence from a New Database" with Robert Zymek, eBook Chapter, "The State of Globalisation" edited by Richard Baldwin and Michele Ruta, also on VoxEU, June 2025.
“Global Contagion of Financial Reforms” with Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu and Tao Zha, IMF Working Paper, No. 2024/243.
"Exchange Rates and Trade in Services: Evidence of Dominant Currency Pricing” with Sergii Meleshchuk, IMF Working Paper, No.2024/242 .
"Knowledge Diffusion Through FDI: Worldwide Firm-level Evidence" with Jaebin Ahn, Chan Kim and Andrea Manera, IMF Working Paper, No. 2024/152
"Eliminating the Productivity Drag" with Diaa Noureldin, Finance and Development, Oct 2024.
"Slowdown in Global Medium-Term Growth: What Will It Take to Turn the Tide?" with Diaa Noureldin others, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024. Blog. Interview Video.
“Argentina Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2018 SBA” with Odd Per Brekk and others, IMF Board Paper, December 2021, featured in The Economist, Financial Times, Bloomberg.
“Inequality and Mobility During the COVID-19 Crisis: The South African Experience” with Chris Papageorgiou and Antonio Spilimbergo, South Africa 2022 Article IV Report Analytical Annex. Presentation at the Surveillance Meeting.
“COVID’s Long Shadow: Social Repercussions of Pandemics”, with Phillip Barrett and Sophia Chen, Research Perspectives, October 2020. IMF blog, 2021
“Severe Epidemics in Modern History: Growth, Debt and Civil Unrest” with Mattia Coppo, IMF RES COVID-19 Special Note, 2020.
“Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment” with Gustavo Alders and others, IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 20/05, 2020.
“The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update” with Luis Cubeddu and others, IMF Working Paper No. 19/65, March 19, 2019.
“Effective Trade Costs and the Current Account: An Empirical Analysis” with Emine Boz and Hongrui Zhang, IMF Working Paper No. 19/8, featured on VoxEU and Econbrowser, 2019.
"Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality" with Bertrand Gruss and others. IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2018.
“Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession” with Vance Martin, IMF Working Paper No. 18/100, 2018.
“China’s Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-level Evidence” with Hui He and Jing Fang, IMF Working Paper No. 16/249, 2016.
“Guatemala: Fiscal Sustainability Assessment”, IMF Selected Issues Paper, 2013.
“Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions” with Emine Boz and Bora Durdu, IMF Working Paper No. 12/237, 2012.