Research

Peer-reviewed Journal Publications

• "Knowledge Diffusion Through FDI: Worldwide Firm-level Evidence" with Jaebin Ahn, Chan Kim and Andrea Manera

Journal of International Economics, accepted 

IMF Working Paper,  No. 2024/152

• “Policy Contagion: What Do We Learn from Financial Reforms?” with Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu and Tao Zha

International Economic Review, accepted

NBER Working Paper, No. 28994, 2021;  IMF Working Paper, No. 2024/243

• “Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors” with Jie April Cai and Ana Maria Santacreu

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 14, No. 1, January 2022, pp. 104-45.

• “China’s Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-level Evidence” with Jing Fang and Hui He

Journal of Development Economics, Vol 147, November 2020, 102561.

IMF Working Paper No. 16/249, 2016.

•  “Growth Through Intersectoral Knowledge Linkages” with Jie April Cai

Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 86, No. 5 (310), October 2019, pp. 1827-1866 

•   “Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession” with Vance Martin

 Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 107, November 2019, pp. 77-95.

•   “International Transmission with Heterogeneous Sectors” with Keyu Jin

 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol 10, No. 4, October 2018, pp. 36-76

•   “Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization” with Romain Duval, Richa Saraf and Dulani Seneviratne

  Journal of International Economics, Vol 99, March 2016, pp. 251-262.

•  “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions” with Emine Boz and Bora Durdu

 Journal of Money, Banking and Credit, Vol. 47, No. 1, February 2015, pp. 31-72.

 IMF Working Paper No. 12/237, 2012

• “Frequency Bias in Consumers’ Perceptions of Inflation: An Experimental Study” with Sotiris Georganas and Paul Healy

European Economic Review, Vol 67, April 2014, pp. 144-158. 

Also in NPR, vox.com, Marketplace, The Conversation, also see here in Spanish and Danish 

• “Transaction Costs, Nonfundamental Uncertainty, and Exchange Rate Disconnect”

Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol 18, No. 8, December 2014, pp. 1751 - 1772. 

• “Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: The Role of Interest Rates”

Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol 14, Issue 4, October 2011, pp. 686-704.

Other Publications

• “Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda's Credit Registry Data” with Marina Martinez, Elizabeth Kasekende, Adam Mugume, Samuel Musoke, Cedric Okou and Andrea Presbitero, IMF Working Paper, No. 2025/242, November 2025.  CEPR Discussion Paper DP20839.

• "Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Research Dataset", with Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao and Robert Zymek, IMF Working Paper, No. 2025/163, Aug 2025. VoxEU blog.

• "Geoeconomic Fragmentation in Services? Evidence from a New Dataset" with Robert Zymek, eBook Chapter, "The State of Globalisation" edited by Richard Baldwin and Michele Ruta, also on VoxEU, June 2025. 

• “Global Contagion of Financial Reforms” with Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu and Tao Zha, IMF Working Paper, No. 2024/243.

• "Exchange Rates and Trade in Services: Evidence of Dominant Currency Pricing” with Sergii Meleshchuk, IMF Working Paper, No.2024/242 . 

• "Knowledge Diffusion Through FDI: Worldwide Firm-level Evidence" with Jaebin Ahn, Chan Kim and Andrea Manera,  IMF Working Paper,  No. 2024/152 

• "Eliminating the Productivity Drag" with Diaa Noureldin, Finance and Development, Oct 2024.

• "Slowdown in Global Medium-Term Growth: What Will It Take to Turn the Tide?" with Diaa Noureldin others, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024. Blog. Interview Video. 

• “Argentina Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2018 SBA” with Odd Per Brekk and others, IMF Board Paper, December 2021, featured in The Economist, Financial Times, Bloomberg.

•  “Inequality and Mobility During the COVID-19 Crisis:  The South African Experience” with Chris Papageorgiou and Antonio Spilimbergo, South Africa 2022 Article IV Report Analytical Annex. Presentation at the Surveillance Meeting.

• “COVID’s Long Shadow: Social Repercussions of Pandemics”, with Phillip Barrett and Sophia Chen, Research Perspectives, October 2020. IMF blog, 2021

• “Severe Epidemics in Modern History: Growth, Debt and Civil Unrest” with Mattia Coppo, IMF RES COVID-19 Special Note, 2020.

•  “Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment” with Gustavo Alders and others, IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 20/05, 2020.

• “The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update” with Luis Cubeddu and others, IMF Working Paper No. 19/65, March 19, 2019.

• “Effective Trade Costs and the Current Account: An Empirical Analysis” with Emine Boz and Hongrui Zhang, IMF Working Paper No. 19/8, featured on VoxEU and Econbrowser, 2019.

• "Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality" with Bertrand Gruss and others. IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2018.

• “Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession” with Vance Martin, IMF Working Paper No. 18/100, 2018.

• “China’s Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-level Evidence” with Hui He and Jing Fang, IMF Working Paper No. 16/249, 2016.

• “Guatemala: Fiscal Sustainability Assessment”, IMF Selected Issues Paper, 2013.

• “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions” with Emine Boz and Bora Durdu, IMF Working Paper No. 12/237, 2012.