Research

Peer-reviewed Journal Publications

• “Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors” with Jie Cai and Ana Maria Santacreu. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 14, No. 1, January 2022, pp. 104-45.

• “China’s Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-level Evidence” with Jing Fang and Hui He, Journal of Development Economics, Vol 147, November 2020, 102561.

•  “Growth Through Intersectoral Knowledge Linkages” with Jie Cai, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 86, No. 5 (310), October 2019, pp. 1827-1866 

•   “Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession” with Vance Martin, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 107, November 2019, pp. 77-95.

•   “International Transmission with Heterogeneous Sectors” with Keyu Jin, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol 10, No. 4, October 2018, pp. 36-76.

•   “Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization” with Romain Duval, Richa Saraf and Dulani Seneviratne, Journal of International Economics, Vol 99, March 2016, pp. 251-262.

•  “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions” with Emine Boz and Bora Durdu, Journal of Money, Banking and Credit, Vol. 47, No. 1, February 2015, pp. 31-72.

• “Frequency Bias in Consumers’ Perceptions of Inflation: An Experimental Study” with Sotiris Georganas and Paul Healy, European Economic Review, Vol 67, April 2014, pp. 144-158.

• “Transaction Costs, Nonfundamental Uncertainty, and Exchange Rate Disconnect”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol 18, No. 8, December 2014, pp. 1751 - 1772. 

• “Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: The Role of Interest Rates”, 2011, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol 14, Issue 4, October 2011, pp. 686-704.

Other Publications

• "Slowdown in Global Medium-Term Growth: What Will It Take to Turn the Tide?" IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024. Blog. Interview Video. 

• “Argentina Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2018 SBA” with Odd Per Brekk and others, Board Paper, December 2021, featured in The Economist, Financial Times, Bloomberg.

•  “Inequality and Mobility During the COVID-19 Crisis:  The South African Experience” with Chris Papageorgiou and Antonio Spilimbergo, South Africa 2022 AIV Annex. Presentation at the Surveillance Meeting.

• “COVID’s Long Shadow: Social Repercussions of Pandemics”, with Phillip Barrett and Sophia Chen, Research Perspectives, October 2020. IMF blog, 2021

• “Severe Epidemics in Modern History: Growth, Debt and Civil Unrest” with Mattia Coppo, RES COVID-19 Special Note, 2020.

•  “Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment” with Gustavo Alders and others, Staff Discussion Note No. 20/05, 2020.

• “The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update” with Luis Cubeddu and others, Working Paper No. 19/65, March 19, 2019.

• “Effective Trade Costs and the Current Account: An Empirical Analysis” with Emine Boz and Hongrui Zhang, Working Paper No. 19/8, featured on VoxEU and Econbrowser, 2019.

• Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality" with Bertrand Gruss and others. IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2018.

• “Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession” with Vance Martin, Working Paper No. 18/100, 2018.

• “China’s Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-level Evidence” with Hui He and Jing Fang, Working Paper No. 16/249, 2016.

• “Guatemala: Fiscal Sustainability Assessment”, Selected Issues Paper, 2013.

• “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions” with Emine Boz and Bora Durdu, Working Paper No. 12/237, 2012.