G2WS Tutorial

Purpose of G2WS

G2WS is a Web simulator to experience the CCEM Model.

The  Web interface shows two  chart  viewers and two set of sliders :

1. the bottom -left sliders allow to change the main KNU, which  are the  key beliefs used by CCEM

2. the bottom-right sliders allow  to change the  zone policies

3. the  top-left chart viewer is used for the "input" chart (see the illustration below)

4. the top-right chart viewer is used for the  "output" charts  (five sets of charts are available)

The purpose of G2WS is to let you experience CCEM (a System Dynamics Model) by playing with some of the input parameters and seeing the propagated results

How to use G2WS

You need to open the Web page (hosted on tiiny.com).

When you start, you get the default setting for the KNUs and the policies.

You may use the drop-down menus to :

• get some information about CCEM  (CCEM & About buttons)

• select the "input" set of charts

• select the "output" set of charts

• reset all sliders to the default values

• get access to this tutorial

Whenever you touch a slider, the CCEM model is recomputed, from years 2010 to 2100.

The following figure shows the G2WS interface with some explanations.

Understanding the Sliders

There are 6 slides that represent the main KNUs:

• Fossil Fuel Reserves: expressed in PWh, the KNU is a curve that represents the amount of Oil, Gas and Coal reserves depending on the sell price (that governs a feasible extraction price).

• Green Energy Growth rate : this slider actually acts on two known unknown; the speed at which renewable energy may be deployed and the speed at which electricity may become the leading way of using primary energy ("electrification" is the ratio of energy consumed through electricity, either clean or from fossil plant, over the total energy consumption).

• Energy Density in GDP. Over the past 50 years, the quantity of energy necessary to produce one dollar of GDP has decreased (quite slowly if we consider constant dollar, more steadily when inflation is factored in, that is with current dollars).

• Direct impact of global warming consequences on the GDP. This is also a topic of heavy debate. The KPI used by CCEM is the loss of GDP if the temperature hits +3C by 2100 (world average surface temperature).

• Impact of "global pain" on productivity. CCEM proposes a "pain" metric, that reflects the unhapiness of the population in front of recession, energy shortage, lack of material economy outcome and global warming impact. This slider allows to introduce a feedback loop that represent the fact that "unhappy people work less" (less engagement, more strikes, more absentism, riots or unrest, etc.).

• Adaptation will become necessary as global warming intensifies. It is modeled as an "insurance policy": one invest to shield their assets, and the impact of global warming catastrophes is lessened. The slider controls the return on investment of this insurance.

There are 6 sliders that represent the policies that CCEM understands for geopolitical blocks (called "zones").

• Carbon Tax: each zone can declare a carbon tax that applies to its own production.

• CBAM: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism =  a tax on imports based on CO2 emissions and carbon tax differences.

• Adaptation: how much each zone wants to spend on its adaptation strategy.

• Energy Transition Acceleration: CCEM works with a KNU about the possible energy transition, and a factor for each zone that represents how much effort is made (0% is "I do not care", 100% is "let's work and invest to move energy consumption to greener sources as fasr as possible")

• Efficiency acceleration: similarly, CCEM implements the possibility for zones to accelerate their R&D and investment into better energy efficiency, with a consequence of accelerating the energy de-densification.

• Voluntary Sobriety: this policy represent the choice, pushed by citizens, to renounce to some energy usage (such as petrol car or private jets).

Each slider moves from 0% to 100%, where 50% is the default value (for the KNUs).

To understand what changing the KNU means, CCEM gives back a KPI associated to each of them

• Total amount of oil reserve, as of 2010, 

• TBC.

Understanding the Charts

Here are the four familes of charts for "input":

• energy: worldwide energy production for Oil, Coal, Gas and Clean (renewable and nuclear), expressed in PWh

• transition: looking at energy consumption globally (all sources), with CO2/Kwh, total production, total saving and missed energy consumption because of shortage (compared to 2010 prices).

• inventory:  fossil fuel reserves

• prices:  energy sell prices for Oil, Coal, Gas and Clean 

Here are the five families of charts for "output"

• results: world GDP (in constant dollars !), energy, CO2 emission and temperature (x 10).

• Earth: global warming stats

• economy: constant dollars GDP for each zone

• outcome: material economy, investments, carbon tax raised worldwide.

• satisfaction: pain levels for the five zones.

Each time you change a slider value, CCEM is re-evaluated ....

Current Limits of G2WS and Future Directions

Current Limits

• only a small subset of KNUs and model parameters are visible

Future Directions

• include explanations in the interface

• disclose the information sources from which default values are extracted

• improve CCEM (v8) to 

  • improve the "limit" scenarios

  • start in 1980, end in 2200

Frequently Asked Questions

Ask your questions and this FAQ will grow ...

Some Technical Insights

This section is under construction