Minority Groups Progessiveness Index (MGPI)

Overview

The Minority Groups' Progressiveness Index (MPGI) is constructed using stylised global time series data on labour market demographics (ILO).

Measuring MGPI

The MGPI produces a crude estimate of the condition of marginalised persons (as an indicator for vulnerable minority groups) by a deriving the year to year change for the proportion of labour force employed and those most vulnerable in the labour force (long-term unemployed plus vulnerable employed) and/or the informal economy.

MGPI ={[1-(Pg^(t)]} , simplified

MGPI = [ Proxy Group Data ]

where

Pg = Proxy Group denoted by (VI); and

Pg = [{((VI^m)+(VI^f))/2}]

VI = International Labour Database of persons Vulnerable Employed

Statistical Results

Analysis of the time series data (cf. MGPI Data Set 2006-2018) indicate a high level of statistical confidence and a steady pattern of country continuity with incremental remediation of global MGPI values.

MGPI continuity was steady for the dominant and high-performing states of Western Asia (Qutar, Kuwait, U.A.E., Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman), East Asia (China, Macao (SAR)) and Eastern Europe (Belarus). Global fast-movers in 2018 and overall new entrants to the top league of Minority Progressiveness indicators represent global poles of Africas (Libya), Europe (Russian Federation, Hungary, Germany) and East Asia (China, Hong Kong (SAR)).

Throughout the 2018 survey period, the census data continued to re-center and align to the medium-long run trend of world markets recovery from the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and associated repercussions of the Global Recession (2009-2012). Recent statistical data indicate a nominal reversal (+1.31%) of the long run left skew (-46.97%) characteristic. Global structural transformations also contributed to continued long run attenuation of the survey mean as aggregate indicators point to sustained prospects for the MGPI global remediation path (MPGI μ = +0.14% (12mth), +0.50% (3yrs), +1.00% (5yrs), +2.00% (10yrs). These results are affirmed by corresponding gap closure of the MGPI range (x_max - x_min) values (MGPI (R) = +0.01% (3yr), +0.07% (5yr), +0.03% (10yr). Global diagnostics also highlight world states of the Americas (Belize, St. Lucia, Panama), West Africa (Cape Verde), Western Asia (Turkey) and Polynesia (Samoa) in proximity to the median marker retained by the representativie state of Iraq (MGPI = 0.7024).

Moreover, the profiles of countries featuring deliberative efforts toward Affirmative Action such as South Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia recorded positive minority group progress indicators and above average (MGPI > μ > 0.6217) scores.

The MGPI may be interpreted as a broad indicator of sovereign fiscal capacity with respect to longitudinal trending of heterogeneous minority groups.

MGPI (2018) Illustrated

MGPI Country Performance

Chart 1: MGPI Results 2018

Global MGPI remains resilient as the survey sample retained relatively constant statistical proportions (MGPI < μ < 0.6217, MGPI < x̃ < 0.7023). Overall, aggregate global MGPI is estimated to have advanced by +20.97% and +5.38% through the 12 month and 36 month interval (as calculated by the percentage of countries that migrated out of net negative to net positive year-to-year MGPI transition during the census).

Evaluating the MGPI metrics, global diagnostics indicate that dimensions of country experience are attenuated by market-linked events such as the disruptive effects of the info-tech boom of the late 1990s, the global financial crisis (GFC) and global recession marking the 2000s and 2010s.

During 2018, a composite of both high income (Western Asian) and fast-moving OECD countries predominate the MGPI scoreboard. This global scenario is characteristic of global structural and comparative country transition factors that ascribe a unique repertoire of industrial developmentalism, socio-cultural and political momentum. Idiosyncratic attributes of leading MGPI states include proven capability of external trade (extractive/export sectors), absorptive (technological) potential, and intrinsic (know-how) capacity to cultivate civil and political progress.

MGPI Outliers

Chart 2: MGPI Outlier Countries

Long run time series analysis illustrates equable causation and moderate form predictability of country outcomes. Based on availability of econometric time series data for the survey period 2006-2018, the majority of countries sampled generate highly persistent levels of structural continuity as indicated by low standard deviation and generally predictive results for the coefficient of determination. The data sets illuminate outlier countries in the emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) of Africas, Americas and Asia as a outlier survey cluster demonstrating the highest long-run and most enduring MGPI transformation.

MGPI in World Context

Chart 3: MGPI v World Market Distortion (WMD)

The MGPI 2018 survey set (n=186) is characterised as -46.97% left skewed and cluster concentrated 87.63% above WMD-parity (WMD = 0). The sampling also identifies leading outlier countries of China (WMD = -0.0785) and India (WMD = -0.1556) (equivalent to 18.56% and 17.77% of world population weight respectively) at significant sub-zero WMD (WMD < 0). Overall, the distribution of reference points may be interpreted such that higher WMD scoring countries are associated with greater accommodative conditions with which to support the outlook for future MGPI improvements. Higher scoring MGPI countries tend to have moderate to high WMD markers.