Research

Publications

"Underemployment of college graduates: Is Doing Anything Better than Doing Nothing?" [JMP]
Journal of Development Economics

Abstract:

Across low-income countries, limited prospects for high-skill employment and poverty push numerous college graduates into jobs which do not require a college degree. These types of experiences may be advantageous or detracting for the new graduates. To examine this issue, we conducted a field experiment in Burundi which elicited preferences of employers with respect to low-skill job experience of recent college graduates. We estimate the impact of signaling various types of low-skill experiences, such as working as a phone credit sales agent, a waiter, a security guard and other positions that do not necessitate a college degree, on the hiring interest of employers in a high-skill job. Results indicate that mentioning a low-skill experience on a resume increases by approximately 10% the hiring interest of employers. Furthermore, employers prefer job seekers with low-skill experience rather than individuals with no experience at all, irrespective of the quality of the job seeker.

Ndoricimpa, Arcade and Michel Armel Ndayikeza. 2023. "Economic costs of conflict: the case of Burundi."

Defence and Peace Economics.

Abstract

This study examines the effects of civil conflicts in Burundi on its economic performance. The analysis of the structural effects using a structural VAR model points to the long-lasting effects of a civil conflict shock on economic growth in Burundi. After 10 years, the effect on economic growth is still noticeable. The cumulative effect of a civil conflict shock is found to be a 7.1% decrease in economic growth over a horizon of 10 years. Using the Synthetic Control method, estimates indicate that the Burundian civil war led to an average GDP per capita decline of approximately 138 dollars per annum, compared to what it would have been in the absence of war. The average annual loss as a percentage of the counterfactual GDP per capita is 34%. The total monetary cost of the war during this period is estimated at USD 1514 per person and almost 10 billion USD for the entire country. The estimated effects are robust to placebo checks conducted. We compare these results with costs of conflict in other countries to better understand the relative financial burden of the civil war. The study highlights the need to consolidate peace to achieve long-term economic development in Burundi.

Current projects

"Under-training by Employers in General Skills: Evidence from Spot Labor Markets in Burundi " with Nick Swanson, Luisa Cefala and Pedro Naso
Blog: Vox Dev

Abstract:

Employers may underinvest in training workers in general skills because the returns from training are captured by other actors. We explore this phenomenon among agricultural employers in Burundi. We investigate whether employers do not train casual laborers in improved, labor-intensive, agricultural techniques because they do not “appropriate” the returns. First, to test for the presence of appropriability failures, we induce a subset of employers to train workers in some local labor markets (villages) and not others. We document that many of the trained workers subsequently work for other employers in the local labor market, so that the training employer captures only a portion of the returns from training. The spillovers onto the other employers (who did not train) are large, leading to increases in the use of the new technology and increased profits. Second, we randomize employers into a contract condition that increases the likelihood that the trained worker will work for the training employer in the future, shifting more of the training surplus to the training employer. This contract increases employers’ willingness to train by 50 percentage points. Our findings suggest that a sizable wedge between private and social returns to training may impede on-the-job training in spot labor markets, with meaningful consequences for worker productivity and output.

The long-term impact of television usage in the classroom: evidence from the PETV program in Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract:

This research examines the long-term impact of Côte d'Ivoire's Programme d'Education Télévisuelle (PETV), a country-wide educational television program implemented between 1971 and 1981, mainly on education and labor market outcomes. Using data from the 2018-2019 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), the research will employ a regression discontinuity design to compare individuals exposed to the PETV program with those who were not. The findings should contribute to the literature on the long-term impact of educational technology in low and middle-income countries, and should offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to improve the quality of education and address educational disparities in resource-constrained environments.

"The impact of underemployment on schooling: evidence from Ethiopia"

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of underemployment on primary schooling, using individual level panel data from Ethiopia. The study exploits the variation in children’s exposure to underemployment of adults within their households using an identification strategy that takes into account the staggered nature of the treatment. The study investigates the causal effect of underemployment on school absenteeism as well as out of school activities. The empirical evidence suggests that underemployment reduces the motivation for schooling by increasing the involvement of children in out-of-school activities, namely household agricultural activities, collecting water and firewood, and other activities. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that older children and children in higher grades are more likely to turn to agricultural work due to household adult underemployment, reflecting their increased awareness of adult employment mismatch. We also find that children are more affected by their parents' underemployment in comparison to other household members. These findings contribute to understanding some of the reasons behind the contemporary observation that more children in developing countries are attending school but are learning relatively less.

Working Paper

Ndayikeza, A. Michel. 2021. "The dynamics of horizontal economic inequality in countries affected by ethnic conflicts". African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) working paper.

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of horizontal inequality in countries that have experienced ethnic conflict. This contrasts with previous studies which have focused on the effect of inequality on conflict. Understanding how conflict affects inequality serves to shed light on reasons behind conflict recurrence and slow economic development. The complex relationship between inequality and conflict is analyzed using both quantitative information, i.e., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from 36 countries for the time 1986-2018, and qualitative information, i.e., six country case studies. The focus throughout is on conflicts in which a rebel group claimed to fight the government on behalf of an ethnic group. The study also compares different inequality indicators suggested by the literature and provides arguments for why some of them should be preferred to others. Overall, the analysis shows that ethnic conflicts generally raise ethnic inequality. Furthermore, the way a conflict ends does not entirely determine the dynamics of horizontal inequality thereafter. The country case studies suggest that for a country to witness declining horizontal inequality following an ethnic conflict, these three conditions are important: (1) a swift victory of the rebel group; (2) financial resources to redistribute; and (3) a firm determination by the winner to redistribute. However, these conditions do not guarantee inequality decline. Therefore, the study suggests that it is important for policy makers to emphasize horizontal inequality reduction in the post-conflict period irrespective of how the conflict ended to avoid conflict recurrence.